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UCL: Matchday Four Best Total Bets

Marco Reus

Marco Reus

Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Just like our Matchday Three side plays, our totals finished with a perfect 2-0 record.

The strategy of targeting team totals proved profitable, as both our selected teams cashed their respective numbers with ease. Atalanta hit United for two before the half-hour mark while Ajax surpassed their 1.5 goal total after only 25 minutes of play.

So, after highlighting my favorite sides across the fourth matchday, we now turn to the totals for the same 16 matches as the previous week.

Without further delay, here are my two favorite total bets across Tuesday & Wednesday. All odds come courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.

Best Bet #1 - Ajax Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-115) vs. Borussia Dortmund

Some of what you’re about to read will sound familiar, but I’m blown away at this price change from Matchday Three.

Remember that two weeks ago Ajax were -140 to achieve this same feat and hit out Dortmund for FOUR goals.

So this week’s play is either a) the greatest betting gift known to man or b) such an obvious trap play that it won’t even come close.

I’ll start with this: now including their meeting in the Netherlands, Dortmund have conceded at least one expected goal in 12 of their last 15 matches against sides that participated in the Champions League knockout rounds.

Granted, a majority of the occasions on which they didn’t allow one expected goal came at Signal Iduna Park. But against an Ajax side that has generated the most expected goals in the Champions League to date, I doubt Dortmund will have much success in their own end.

Consider too that Ajax punched above their shot-creating and goal-creating action averages in the reverse fixture. For the match, the Eredivisie champions accumulated 34 shot-creating actions and six goal-creating actions, per fbref.com. In their two previous group matches, Ajax notched averages of 30 SCA’s and 5.5 GCA’s per 90 minutes.

Plus, there’s the small-ish matter that Dortmund haven’t been in the best of form in their recent Bundesliga matches.

In their last two matches - both against sides that currently sit in the bottom half of the Bundesliga table - Dortmund have allowed a combined 3.1 xGA, including 1.7 xGA against a team currently in the relegation zone.

Given that Ajax almost certainly rank ahead of those squads in terms of their offensive prowess, I expect they’re more than capable of knocking two past a weak Dortmund defense.

Best Bet #2 - Wolfsburg/RB Salzburg Over 2.5 Goals (-140)

Some may choose to stay away from this bet given the high juice, but there are a few factors for me that make this a good over bet.

First is that Salzburg have been a very steady offensive side in the Champions League. Yes there’s been some penalty luck, but the Austrian side have scored six times on 7.1 expected goals, per fbref.com.

That mark establishes the Group G leaders as the fifth-best Champions League side in terms of expected goal output.

However, Salzburg have now conceded at least once in seven straight road Champions League group stage games. Against a Wolfsburg side that has registered at least one expected goal in all six home games this season, expect the hosts to contribute at least one goal like they did in the reverse fixture.

Furthermore, Salzburg haven’t kept a clean sheet in six straight fixtures and have yet to hold any of their fellow Group G opposition off the scoresheet in their first three group stage matches.

At the same time, though, I don’t expect Wolfsburg’s defense is capable of withholding this Salzburg attack. The Bundesliga outfit have now conceded at least one expected goal in seven straight matches in all competitions and haven’t kept a home clean sheet since August.

In Champions League specifically, the Wolves have only kept one clean sheet while allowing no fewer than 1.1 xGA in their first three fixtures. Additionally, Wolfsburg are a bottom-half defensive side in terms of shot-creating actions allowed and attacking third touches allowed, per fbref.com.

With all that mind, I wouldn’t be surprised if these sides produced another four-goal game, which is why I’m comfortable laying such high juice in this market.

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