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After a great week on the dirt in Madrid, we turn our attention to Rome where the pros of the ATP and WTA tours take center stage for yet another big clay-court tournament in the lead-up to Roland Garros. I’ve got two plays for Monday morning, and I’ll share them now.
Francisco Cerundolo (+100) vs. John Isner (-121)
Here’s the thing about Isner. While he’s hardly a guy who enjoys playing on clay courts, he still has a winning record on the surface and has been to the semifinals in Rome before. It’s a venue which has helped big servers like Isner in years past, and his compatriot Reilly Opelka made a run here last year.
With all that said, I also think this is a great matchup for Isner. Cerundolo has devastating power but lacks precision and consistency which have held him back from taking a big leap. While it could be coming, this is not the type of match for him. He thrives on clay courts because he has numerous opportunities to unleash his huge forehand and gain ground on his opponents, but this isn’t going to be one of those matches.
Isner, who is a hard man to win return points against, will provide Cerundolo with a handful of chances to influence his serve or win points against it in a tiebreak. The Argentine is going to be asked to land probably two passing shots in pressure moments, and that simply isn’t good news for him. Cerundolo hasn’t dealt well with pressure in his young career and as mentioned above simply doesn’t have a reliable forehand which will always hit the mark. Without that, I think he will squander his few chances and lose this one.
Edge: Isner -121
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Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (+110) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime (-136)
I talked a lot of smack about Auger-Aliassime’s game on clay courts last week, and all he did was go to the semifinals of a Masters 1000. Despite the fact that I still do have some doubts about the Canadian’s ability to win match after match on this surface, I do think he proved a little bit in Madrid.
Auger-Aliassime was crushing his forehand and hitting with a level of consistency we simply haven’t seen in a while out of him. His pace allowed him to dictate so many rallies and it’s also worth noting, as was the case with Isner, that these are server’s courts in Italy. Auger-Aliassime went to the Round of 16 here a year ago.
The Canadian owns a 2-0 head-to-head record over Davidovich Fokina with one of those wins coming at the Challenger level on clay and one at this year’s Australian Open. The Spaniard is without any sort of consistency right now, going three sets with Ilya Ivashka on Monday and losing three of his last six. He’s an unreliable player, and it’s going to take a lot to beat one of the world’s best right now.
Edge: Auger-Aliassime -136
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