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We’ve reached the finals for both the Stockholm Open and the Next Gen ATP Finals, two indoor hardcourt tournaments. For those who have survived, it is the last big chance to earn a championship this year. Here’s where you can find betting value:
Tommy Paul (+146) vs Denis Shapovalov (-189)
Tommy Paul had to grind out a win over Frances Tiafoe, needing three sets including one tiebreak. Denis Shapovalov has displayed much better recent form, making efficient work of his opponents en route to the final. ATP world rankings also give Shapovalov the advantage: 18th versus 52nd.
But advanced analytics point to the talent disparity being much smaller. Per tennisabstract.com, Paul’s Elo rating on hard courts is 1710.7, roughly nine points worse than his opponent’s. Also, when it comes to return in-play points won rate, Paul has a sizable advantage (38.74% to 35.04%). Any advantage you can point to in this match for Shapovalov is minimal. The value belongs in the underdog.
EDGE: Paul (+146)
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Carlos Alcaraz (-264) vs Sebastian Korda (+198)
Carlos Alcaraz has been a substantial favorite to win the Next Gen ATP Finals since the beginning. He has built upon that run to the quarterfinals at the U.S. Open that continues to be one of the big “what if” moments this year, having to retire due to injury against Felix Auger-Aliassime.
In his most recent match, Alcaraz averted even the slightest hint of danger, countering three break points with powerful serves, two of which were aces. Even beyond his serve, Alcaraz does not make near the mistakes you might expect from an 18-year-old. His winners/unforced error ratio on this surface over the past year ranks 62nd at 0.989, nine spots better than Korda’s at 0.920. He was the favorite coming in and nothing suggests he can’t finish this event on top.
EDGE: Alcaraz (-264)
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