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We’ve got two more tournaments on the ATP Tour to bet on this week, and I’ve got some ideas as to how we can make some money on Friday morning. Let’s get into it.
Andrey Rublev (-210) vs. Tommy Paul (+170)
Can Tommy Paul beat Andrey Rublev? He sure can. He took him out earlier this year at Indian Wells and has always played him close, taking a set off him in two losses prior to that meeting. The American hasn’t had much competition to this point in the tournament, but in the last three months he’s been playing some of the best tennis of his career.
Rublev went to war with Ilya Ivashka and should be the slightest bit tired here, leading me to believe Paul has a shot to win. These indoor hardcourts in Spain have also been rather slow and high-bouncing, which should play to Paul’s liking and closely resemble the conditions in which he took out Rublev earlier in the season.
The books have priced us out of Paul to win a set in this match, but I think there’s value in simply taking the moneyline. This is an even matchup.
Edge: Paul +170
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Andy Murray (+160) vs. Sebastian Korda (-210)
This one is fascinating to me. Korda did come through a battle with Roberto Bautista-Agut on Thursday, who happens to be one of the tougher outs on tour, and he did so in in the Spaniard’s home country. He also fought back from a set and a break down, further strengthening this victory on paper.
Korda didn’t look incredible, however, nor did Bautista Agut. The Spaniard was making some uncharacteristic errors and feeling it physically by the middle of the second set, which helped the American get across the finish line. Even then, the final set wasn’t the easiest and Korda was forced to save some break points.
Simply put, I think the books are overrating this win by Korda. The courts may not be incredibly slick, but Murray should still be able to hold serve rather easily as a great indoors player. I think he’s live for an upset.
Edge: Murray +160