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We’ve got two more tournaments on the ATP Tour to bet on this week, and I’ve got some ideas as to how we can make some money on Monday morning. Let’s get into it.
Brandon Nakashima (-197) vs. David Goffin (+155)
Brandon Nakashima is playing what is arguably the best tennis of his career. He’s fallen short a couple of times in the last month against some strong opponents like Felix Auger Aliassime and Borna Coric, but for the most part he’s come through against every player he should beat, and he’s done so convincingly.
Nakashima nearly took out Jannik Sinner at the US Open and turned right around weeks later in San Diego to lift the trophy there. He then went to the Quarters in Florence a couple of weeks ago, and should enjoy the indoor conditions here in Basel.
David Goffin is playing himself into form, but I’m still not seeing nearly enough out of him to give him the type of respect that this line would indicate he is getting. Nakashima should bully him from the baseline and continue to dominate indoor hardcourts, where he’s 38-16 across all levels for his career.
Edge: Nakashima -2.5
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Carlos Alcaraz (-223) vs. Jack Draper (+175)
This is a very fun first-time matchup between two excellent young players, and one I think we’ll see a lot over the years. I think the underdog’s got a real shot here.
Alcaraz simply hasn’t had the same level lately that he did when he captured his first Grand Slam a month or so ago in New York. In fact, he’s barely played. When he has played, he has hardly won. He’s lost two of his three matches since returning to the tour, to Auger Aliassime and Goffin. These aren’t great results.
Draper, meanwhile, hasn’t done too much himself but he has seemed to rebound excellently from an injury at the US Open. He dominated Jenson Brooksby in his return and nearly took out a top-15 player in Hubert Hurkacz. He’s an incredible indoors player, going 23-3 inside this season across all levels. That’s because he has a massive lefty serve and follows it up with power groundstrokes.
I think Alcaraz will be put off by Draper being the aggressor and the more powerful player, and I think the Brit is live for an upset here. I’ll take the games.
Edge: Draper +2.5
