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Tennis Best Bets for October 4

Miomir Kecmanovic

Miomir Kecmanovic

Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images

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After some smaller 250 tournaments, the ATP Tour is back with two relatively large 500-level tournaments this week as we get set to wind down the season.

Let’s get into some picks.

Mackenzie McDonald (+110) vs. Soon-Woo Kwon (-136)

Poor Mackenzie McDonald is about to run into an unstoppable force here in Soon-woo Kwon, a player who looked to be in top-25 form on Monday night in his win over Alex De Minaur.

Kwon played close to a perfect match, taking the ball early and absolutely crushing it off of both wings. He was able to hit through De Minaur, perhaps the best defender in the world, with ease. Now, he faces a dollar-store version in McDonald, who makes his money off of his opponents’ mistakes and who plays defensive tennis in his own right.

There just aren’t too many people in this field who are going to beat Kwon if he keeps up this level, and there’s certainly reason to believe he can. Sure, he did lose to Jenson Brooksby last week in Seol, but he picked up a huge win over Felix Auger-Aliassime at the Davis Cup weeks ago and has demonstrated he has some tremendous talent. He should really win this one in two.

Edge: Kwon -136

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Yoshihito Nishioka (-130) vs. Miomir Kecmanovic (+105)

Nishioka will be playing at home in Japan, and he’s played some great tennis in his own right. He just took out Denis Shapovalov in Seoul to win the final there, defeating Casper Ruud along the way.

This is what we’d call a classic letdown spot. Nishioka should be pretty tired from the last week and may overlook Kecmanvoic, who has been in pretty dreadful form lately with four losses in his last five contests. With that said, this line tells the story.

Oddsmakers are begging us to take Nishioka here, and I will be hopping to the opposite side. Kecmanovic is a very talented tennis player who has experience playing in hostile environments like this, and he’s also incredibly hungry for a win. There should be a serious gap in motivation here and I think the Serb is live for an upset.

Edge: Kecmanovic +105