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After some smaller 250 tournaments, the ATP Tour is back with two relatively large 500-level tournaments this week as we get set to wind down the season.
Let’s get into some picks.
Borna Coric (-145) vs. Denis Shapovalov (+115)
I’ve been on the Coric train this week, but I’m going to be hopping off to grab a share of Shapovalov as the underdog.
Coric does own the 2-0 head-to-head record here, but a closer examination would find that both of those matches were played four years ago. Back then, Coric was a top-20 player, and Shapovalov a player still trying to find his game. Even though Shapovalov has struggled this season, I think the way he’s played over the last two weeks makes him incredibly live to win this match.
Shapovalov has the ability to take the racquet out of his opponent’s hands, and I think that’s exactly what he’s going to do on Wednesday night. He’s been connecting with his huge forehand and serving very well late in the season, so it doesn’t matter much to me that Coric’s form has been good. I think Shapovalov will ambush him, and the Croat won’t know what hit him.
Edge: Shapovalov +115
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Roberto Bautista Agut (+210) vs. Daniil Medvedev (-270)
Bautista Agut is now 4-1 against Medvedev in his career with his win over the former World No. 1 in Mallorca earlier this year, and he’s a perfect 3-0 against the Russian on hardcourts. I’ll be backing the Spaniard here once again.
Medvedev will be playing on indoor slow hardcourts, which have been a difficult surface for him. On top of that, the stakes here are incredible low. Medvedev will likely be thinking about Paris, where he went to the final last year, and the year-end finals where he’ll be making money and gaining meaningful points.
I think Medvedev’s looked a bit flat in the last couple of months and disinterested in competing. I think he will drop a set here at the very least.
Edge: Bautista-Agut +1.5 Sets (-120)