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The final Grand Slam on the tennis calendar, the US Open, rolls on in Queens. Two stacked draws of men and women will take the court and vie for some life-changing money and ranking points, continuing with the fourth round on Monday and taking us all the way into this upcoming Sunday.
Without further ado, let’s get into some picks.
Marin Cilic (+350) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (-500)
It feels the match Cilic was able to win against Alcaraz in Estoril last year was decades ago. All the Spaniard has done is transform himself into arguably the top player in the world, and along the way he’s victimized Cilic on a couple of occasions.
Alcaraz has played CIlic twice this year at a Masters 1000 event, and in each match he was able to win in straight sets. While he led in Cincinnati weeks ago and made a meal of the first set before eventually closing it and winning easily in the second.
The Spaniard is a superior athlete here and his serve has improved so drastically in the last year that it may even be on the same plane as Cilic’s. While the Croat has had an excellent year, his win over Dan Evans came tough. He his just about every line, and the margins were on his side. I don’t know if he can redline for three hours against Alcaraz, and even if he does sneak a set he should get blown away in the others.
Edge: Alcaraz -5.5 Games
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Danielle Collins (+102) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (-125)
You couldn’t ask for a better opponent if you’re Danielle Collins. Sabalenka is one of the most error-prone players in the game today, and she will be incredibly unsettled by an opponent who can match her power.
Collins’ level has been tremendous, and for me she’s the third-best player remaining in the draw. She’s had to come through some very tricky opponents in Alize Cornet and Naomi Osaka, and two that can absolutely smoke the ball. That’s excellent practice for Sabalenka, whose best tennis we haven’t seen in quite some time.
Sabalenka won’t be able to bully Collins like she did at the US Open in years’ past, not with the way she is playing right now. Sabalenka’s lucky to even be here after facing a huge deficit against Kaia Kanepi, and that was a match where she was flustered by the power coming at her from the other side of the net.
I’m going to take a bite on the underdog here, and I also don’t hate a look at a Collins future.
Edge: Collins +102