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Unlike many of the top seeds here at Wimbledon, we’ve made it on to the fourth round. There are so many great matches to get in on, and I’ve got two plays below that I’m keying in on.
Brandon Nakashima (+275) vs. Nick Kyrgios (-371)
While Nakashima and Kyrgios are both 10-3 on the grass this season, their levels at the moment couldn’t be different. The American has won some matches at the Challenger level and in qualifying for an ATP tournament while Kyrgios has beaten some of the world’s best like Pablo Carreno-Busta and Stefanos Tsitsipas.
The Aussie is truly one of the three best players remaining in the draw right now yet doesn’t get treated as such by oddsmakers due to his tendency to be a distraction and a disruptor on the court. What I’d point to is his first two matches that, while not completely without issue, demonstrated Kyrgios’ renewed focus for the game.
The Australian is the favorite to reach the final here, yet we can get plus money on him to wipe out a player with weaker weapons. Kyrgios was excellent in returning one of the bigger serves on tour last match and should quickly get himself out in front here. I like him in three.
Edge: Kyrgios 3-0 (+145)
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Botic Van de Zandschulp (+460) vs. Rafael Nadal (-715)
This match is priced very similarly to their match at the French Open, which doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. On grass, Van de Zandschulp is a far more lethal player given the power he brings to the surface, and his ability to get free points off his serve. On the clay, he’s not as effective as his balls are neutralized.
We can say the opposite about Nadal, who isn’t the same guy on a grass court as he is on clay. He’s still elite, but I’d expect to see an improvement from Van de Zandschulp here over what we saw in Paris.
I’d also say that Nadal has looked pretty brutal in this tournament prior to dispatching Lorenzo Sonego, and his foot may be on its last legs. Van de Zandschulp can create issues for Nadal here and I believe he has the guts to keep this one close. He’s been a big match player for a year now.
Edge: Van de Zandschulp +6.5