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This season’s WNBA playoffs begin tonight with two first-round matchups with win-or-go-home stakes. The action begins with an 8:00 pm ET battle between the Chicago Sky and Dallas Wings, followed by the Phoenix Mercury taking on the New York Liberty at 10:00 pm ET.
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings
Chicago went an even 16-16 in the regular season to earn the sixth seed and a postseason matchup with the seventh-seeded Wings after Dallas went 14-18 this year. Both teams went 5-5 over the last ten games of the regular season. Dallas went 2-1 against the Sky in the regular season including a four-point win in the most recent matchup on August 17, the only time the teams faced off in Chicago.
The average age on the Wings roster is only 24.3, compared to the veteran Sky roster with an average age of 27.1. This discrepancy shows up when examining the playoff experience on both sides, as Alisha Gray and Kayla Thornton‘s combined four games of playoff experience is the extent of the roster’s playoff experience with the Wings and those players represent the only remaining pieces from Dallas’s last playoff appearance.
In contrast, Chicago’s backcourt of Courtney Vandersloot and Allie Quigley bring 55 games of playoff experience with the Sky. Vandersloot is the league’s all-time leader in assists per game and paced the league in dimes again this year for the fifth consecutive season, while Quigley is a three-time WNBA three-point contest champion who led all players averaging at least 20 minutes in percentage from deep this season. The duo should be able to make another run into the second round with the addition of Candace Parker, the all-time leader in Kevin Pelton’s WNBA playoff championships added metric.
Parker only averaged 13.3 points per game this season but put up 14.8 points per game in her last 10 outings. It comes as no surprise to WNBA fans that Parker is hitting her stride right as the postseason rolls around since the veteran forward ranks in the league’s all-time playoff top-15 for total points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks.
All-Star Arike Ogunbowale led the league in scoring last season and put up 18.7 points per game this year for Dallas, the fifth-highest average in the league. The Wings scored a league-high 29.4 bench points per game this season and boast a few impactful reserves.
Isabelle Harrison missed time due to COVID protocols but returned last week and averaged 15 points and 7.3 rebounds per game on 62% shooting from the field in seven games since the break. Marina Mabrey also ended the season on a hot streak with averages of 16.8 points, 4.8 assists and four rebounds per game over the last four outings. The third-year guard put up 28 points in one win over the Sky but only averaged 3.5 points in the other two matchups against Chicago.
Dallas’ deep bench provides plenty of options for coach Vickie Johnson and she’s spent the season mixing and matching different lineup combinations. The Wings put out 13 different starting lineups this season, with no group starting more than seven games together. While Mabrey and Harrison are strong bench options, the team’s top-ranked bench scoring total may be partially due to the team’s high minutes allotted to reserves, with a league-high 15.3 bench minutes per game. When comparing the league’s benches in efficiency, Dallas fell to the middle of the pack with a sixth-ranked 102.2 offensive rating and a seventh-ranked -0.8 net rating from reserves.
The Wings should have an advantage on the boards tonight as Dallas led the league with 10 offensive rebounds per game this season. However, Chicago’s defense ranked fourth in the league for defensive efficiency and allowed the fourth-fewest Points Per Possession (PPP) against opposing put-backs.
While the Dallas roster includes plenty of scorers, there are fewer true distributors than on Chicago’s team. The Sky led the league with 21.8 assists per game this year, compared to only 17.4 dimes per game for the Wings. These two offenses run completely different styles, with Dallas executing a higher frequency of isolation plays than any other WNBA team (7.1% of offensive possessions) in contrast to Chicago’s 2.2% of possessions using isolation plays, the lowest rate in the league.
Dallas only ranked 11th in efficiency on those isolation plays and despite a high volume of offensive rebounds, the Wings put up the league’s worst PPP mark on put-backs (0.87 PPP) and post-up plays (0.71 PPP).
The Wings averaged 81.1 points per game this season, but the offense failed to score 90 points in any of the team’s 11 games since the break and averaged the third-fewest points in the WNBA during the season’s second half (73.5 points per game). The defense performed even worse this season, ranking ninth in overall defensive PPP allowed including bottom-five ranks against post-ups, spot-ups, isolation plays, put-backs, hand-offs and pick-and-roll rollers. The team’s league-worst PPP against opposing pick-and-roll rollers could be problematic against Chicago, the WNBA’s most efficient team on offensive plays using a pick-and-roll roller this season.
The Sky played without center Stefanie Dolson for the last two games but removed her from the injury report prior to this game. Dolson accounted for a team-high 26.55% of Chicago’s possessions as a roller this season and was one of four Sky players to rank in the WNBA’s top-10 for PPP scored as a roller.
Kahleah Copper paced Chicago with 14.4 points per game this season on 45.9% shooting from the field. Copper converted 50% of her field goal attempts in three games against Dallas this season and if she scores efficiently again tonight, the Wings will struggle to slow down Chicago’s offense. The Sky went 10-5 when Copper shot at least 50% from the field compared to 6-11 when Copper shot below 50% this season.
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Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty
In the second game of the postseason, the New York Liberty travel to Phoenix for a matchup against the Mercury. Fifth-seeded Phoenix earned home-court advantage but due to a scheduling conflict with a concert, the Mercury will play at Grand Canyon University Arena in this single-elimination game. PointsBet Sportsbook still lists Phoenix as the -9.5 favorite in this game with a total of 165.
The Mercury went 19-13 this season but finished the season strong, with a 10-3 record and the league’s second-best net rating since the break. New York backed into the final playoff spot on the last day of the regular season after a 2-8 finish to the year.
Phoenix has a strong team but there are some flaws that could hold the Mercury back in the later rounds. The Mercury scored the fewest points off turnovers and allowed the most second-chance points in the league this season. Fortunately, these concerns shouldn’t hinder Phoenix against the Liberty, as New York scored the fewest second-chance points per game and allowed opponents to score the highest average of points off turnovers in the league.
The Mercury can win the turnover battle tonight despite a league-low 4.8 steals per game. No team averaged more turnovers per game than the Liberty this season and New York ranked only one spot above Phoenix in 11th for steals per game.
Mercury center Brittney Griner put up 20.5 points per game on 57.5% shooting from the field to go along with 9.5 boards and a league-high 1.9 blocks per game. Griner paced the league with 12.7 average points in the paint and scored the fourth-most second-chance points per game.
Defensively, Griner allowed only 0.703 PPP to opposing scorers, the lowest mark among all centers this season, and a 31.8% opponent field goal percentage according to Synergy data. Griner also owns the title of best dunker in WNBA history by far with 16 career slams. Mercury PR noted Griner’s four dunks this season exceeds the combined total of three non-Griner dunks in the regular season since the WNBA was founded.
🚨 BRITTNEY GRINER DUNK 🚨
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) August 25, 2021
(via @WNBA)pic.twitter.com/B9AAHlVUQ7
The duo of Griner and Skylar Diggins-Smith each made All-WNBA First Team this season. Diggins-Smith won Western Conference Player of the Week in late-August after averaging 27 points, six assists and 2.5 steals in two games against the Liberty. The star point guard ranked in the league’s top-10 scorers with 17.7 points per game on the highest field-goal percentage among all guards scoring at least 15 points per game. Diggins-Smith’s quickness and ability to attack the rim allowed her to get to the line a league-high 198 times this season, averaging 1.7 free throw attempts per game more than the next-closest guard.
On the defensive end, Diggins-Smith allowed the fewest overall PPP to opposing scorers among all players to appear in at least 20 games this year. With the star point guard on the floor, Phoenix outscored opponents by 7.6 points per 100 possessions compared to a -16.9 net rating with Diggins-Smith on the bench.
Another player who had success against the Liberty this season is Brianna Turner. Turner made the WNBA All-Defensive Team in her second season last year and is among the top defenders in the league. Turner averaged a double-double against New York in three regular season games on 77.8% shooting from the field. Since the start of August, Turner grabbed 10.7 boards per game (second-most in the WNBA) including 3.1 on the offensive glass. Turner’s post-ups ranked in the 98th percentile for offensive PPP, and no team allowed more opposing points off post-up plays than the Liberty.
The Mercury led the league in scoring rate on post-up possessions on the third-highest post-up frequency this season, which could mean trouble for the Liberty. Phoenix also scored the third-most points from pick-and-roll ball handlers, so Diggins-Smith should be able to drive at will against New York’s 10th-ranked defense in PPP against opposing ball handlers.
The Liberty topped the WNBA in both three-point attempts and makes per game this season with the third-best percentage from beyond the arc. New York used spot-up shooters on a league-high 27.7% of offensive possessions, but the Mercury ranked third in defensive PPP against spot-up plays.
New York’s best shooter was Sami Whitcomb, as the fifth-year guard had a breakout year with a career-high 11.7 points, five rebounds and 2.7 assists per game. Whitcomb made 42.5% of her three-pointers and put up the second-most makes from deep this season. In her first season with the Liberty, Whitcomb led all guards in true shooting percentage in addition to ranking in the 91st percentile for overall offensive PPP and the 98th percentile on spot-up plays with the third-most total points from spot-ups.
No player scored more points off spot-up possessions than Michaela Onyenwere this year according to Synergy’s data. Onyenwere earned Rookie of the Year honors after sweeping the season’s Rookie of the Month awards. The sixth pick in the 2021 WNBA Draft put up 8.6 points and 2.9 rebounds this year while making 32.7% of her three-pointers.
Onyenwere and fellow All-Rookie Team selection DiDi Richards stood out more on the defensive end in their first WNBA season. Onyenwere ranked in the 90th percentile of defensive PPP allowed while Richards earned an 84th percentile defensive PPP, including the 99th percentile against opposing scorers off screens.
The Liberty allowed the most opposing points per game this year and the defense struggled even after Natasha Howard returned from injury, conceding 86.5 points per game in the second half of the regular season. Individually, the former Defensive Player of the Year excelled on both ends. Howard ranked in the 99th percentile for overall defensive PPP allowed including top-five percentile marks against spot-up shooters and rollers. Offensively, Howard earned a 96th percentile grade in transition PPP and was named the WNBA’s Eastern Conference Player of the Week for the final week of the season after averaging 24.5 points, nine rebounds and 2.5 steals over two games.
New York’s defense struggled most on the interior, conceding a league-high 38.4 opposing points in the paint and 17.3 made field goals from within eight feet per game. Unsurprisingly, the Liberty struggled to contain Griner inside, as she led the league in field goals made from inside eight feet this season. Griner averaged 27.5 points and 11.5 rebounds on 63.6% shooting from the field in two games against the Liberty, including a colossal 16 points in the paint per game.
The Liberty also allowed opponents to average a league-high 24.4 three-point attempts over the last ten games and in addition to the Mercury’s success in the paint, Phoenix shot much better from beyond the arc since the break with the second-best three-point percentage since the start of August. The Mercury also put up the WNBA’s highest field-goal percentage and offensive rating since the break with the second-highest PPP scored from half-court offense.
Prediction:
I’m hesitant to bet on such a heavy favorite for an elimination game, especially without true home-court advantage, but Griner’s post dominance is too much for the Liberty to overcome. I think both favorites advance in the first round of the playoffs and parlaying both money lines yields -132 odds. If Phoenix gets off to a slow start, I also would target the live spread under -7 since the Mercury put up a -1.2 net rating in the first half compared to a +6.5 net rating in the second half this season. PointsBet Sportsbook lists Phoenix -2 for the third quarter compared to -2.5 in the second and fourth quarters and -3 for the opening frame, so there could be value in taking the Mercury’s spread for the third quarter.
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