Bruins vs. Hurricanes first-round playoff preview, odds and prediction

Share

The Boston Bruins and Carolina Hurricanes know each other very well, and they will square off in the first round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

It's the third time in the last four years these teams have met in the postseason. The Bruins eliminated the 'Canes in the 2019 Eastern Conference Final and 2020 first round. Boston had home ice advantage in those two series, but Carolina has that edge this time. The 'Canes won the Metropolitan Division and the B's secured the first wild card spot.

Both teams have plenty of offensive skill, but their strength is defending. Neither team gives up many quality looks at the net.

Here's a playoff preview for Bruins vs. Hurricanes. Game 1 is set for Monday night in Raleigh. (All stats via Natural Stat Trick)

Series Schedule

Here's the complete schedule for Bruins vs. Hurricanes (all times ET): 

Game 1 at Carolina: Monday, May 2 at 7 p.m. on ESPN

Game 2 at Carolina: Wednesday, May 4 at 7 p.m. on ESPN

Game 3 at Boston: Friday, May 6 at 7 p.m. on TNT

Game 4 at Boston: Sunday, May 8 at 12:30 p.m. on ESPN

Game 5 at Carolina*: Tuesday, May 10 at TBD

Game 6 at Boston*: Thursday, May 12 at TBD

Game 7 at Carolina*: Saturday, May 14 at TBD

*If necessary

Regular Season Head-to-Head

The Hurricanes destroyed the Bruins in the regular season. They won all three games by a combined score of 16-1.

Here are some key 5-on-5 stats from their season series:

Bruins 5v5 StatsVs. Hurricanes
Shot Attempts For/Against137/112
Shots On Net For/Against80/72
Goals For0
Goals Against10
Scoring Chances For/Against62/53
Save %0.861

Context is important, though. One of those losses came when the B's were without both Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand. Another one of the defeats was veteran goalie Tuukka Rask's second game back with the B's before he retired in February. He gave up five goals in one period of action. 

Regular season success also does not guarantee similar postseason results. The Bruins swept their 2008-09 season series with the 'Canes 4-0-0 by a combined score of 18-5. Carolina beat Boston in seven games in the second round.

The Bruins win the series if...

The power play wakes up and compliments the Bruins' much-improved 5-on-5 scoring.

The Bruins ranked No. 6 in goals and No. 1 in shots on net at 5-on-5 since Jan. 1. They were a dreadful 5-on-5 offensive team over the first three months of the season, but the line changes made by head coach Bruce Cassidy in early January ignited a huge turnaround. 

If the Bruins' power play, which ended an 0-for-39 slump on Thursday night, scores at just an average rate in this series, it will be tough for Boston to lose. But the Bruins will have to execute at a high level for that to happen because the Hurricanes had the best penalty kill in the regular season with an 88 percent success rate.

The Hurricanes win the series if...

They shut down Boston's second line of Taylor Hall, Erik Haula and David Pastrnak.

This line has rediscovered its scoring form over the last week -- including an excellent performance against the Panthers on Tuesday night -- after Pastrnak recently returned from a nearly three-week injury absence. The Hall-Haula-Pastrnak trio was put together at the beginning of January when the B's were struggling mightily, and the line change helped get their season back on track. 

Limiting this line's effectiveness and ramping up the pressure on Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron to carry Boston's scoring burden is a path to success for Carolina.

Players to Watch

Jake DeBrusk, RW, Bruins

DeBrusk's first three months of the season were awful. His trade request became public in late November and he had scored just five goals through Dec. 31. But he closed the season in impressive fashion, scoring 20 goals since New Year's Day to finish with 25 on the season -- two behind his career high set in 2018-19.

The Bruins need secondary scoring to make a deep playoff run. They can't just rely on Bergeron, Marchand and Pastrnak and expect to get through a loaded Eastern Conference. DeBrusk has to show up and produce offensively. and he should bring plenty of confidence into the playoffs after tallying six points (three goals, three assists) in his last seven games.

Hampus Lindholm, D, Bruins

The Hurricanes are a smooth skating, highly skilled team that plays with speed and a fast tempo. It's the kind of game that Lindholm thrives in, making him an excellent defenseman to deploy against Carolina's top two lines. 

The Bruins drove puck possession, scoring chances and goals at a high rate when Lindholm was on the ice during 5-on-5 action in his 10 regular season appearances.

5v5 StatWith Lindholm on ice
Shot Attempts For/Against181/147
Shots on Net For/Against120-83
Scoring Chances For/Against94/74
Goals For/Against12/5

Boston didn't have Lindholm in any of its three regular season games against Carolina. They all were played before the trade deadline in March. Adding a top-tier defenseman of his caliber to the blue line makes the B's much better equipped to slow down the Hurricanes' offensive attack.

Andrei Svechnikov, RW, Hurricanes

Svechnikov had a fantastic season, setting career highs with 30 goals and 69 points. He scored six points (three goals, three assists) with nine shots in three games against Boston during the regular season. The Russian winger is one of the most skilled young players in the league. His injury in the 2020 first-round series -- which sidelined him for the final two games -- dealt a huge blow to Carolina's offense. This year, Svechnikov is healthy and playing the best hockey of his career.

Sebastian Aho, C, Hurricanes

Aho led the Hurricanes with 37 goals and 44 assists for 81 points. He's also deadly on the power play, where he scored 13 goals with 15 assists. The Bruins are an elite defensive team and likely will have the Bergeron line defend Aho's line. It's a matchup the 'Canes must win if they're going to prevail in this series. Aho scored only one goal in Carolina's nine playoff games versus Boston from 2019 and 2020.

Goalie Breakdown

Linus Ullmark, Bruins

The Bruins have not yet confirmed Ullmark is the Game 1 starter, but it would be absolutely shocking if he wasn't. He's earned it with his stellar performances to end the season. He outplayed rookie Jeremy Swayman in March and April by a fairly wide margin, including wins over quality opponents such as the Lightning, Rangers and Panthers.

Ullmark has zero postseason experience, so we've never seen him in high-pressure moments with the season on the line. Luckily for him, he's playing in front of a team with great defensive structure that allowed the fewest scoring chances in the league.

Frederik Andersen, Hurricanes

UPDATE (Monday, May 2 at 11:45 a.m. ET): Andersen won't play in Game 1 and backup Antti Raanta will start in net.

--End of Update--

The biggest question mark entering this series is the health of Andersen, who had a fantastic regular season with a 35-14-3 record, a .922 save percentage and a 2.17 GAA. Andersen and backup netminder Antti Raanta won the William M. Jennings Trophy for allowing the fewest goals per game. The Danish netminder also is likely to be a finalist for the Vezina Trophy.

If Andersen plays, the 'Canes have the advantage in net. He went 3-0-0 with a .990 save percentage and two shutouts versus the B's in the regular season. But he suffered a left leg injury against the Colorado Avalanche in mid-April and hasn't played since. Chip Alexander of the Raleigh News & Observer reported Thursday that Andersen hasn't begun skating yet. Even if Andersen misses just a couple of games to begin the series, it's a huge setback for Carolina.

Raanta isn't a horrible second option. He has nine years of experience and put up respectable numbers (.912 save percentage and 2.45 GAA) during the regular season, but he's nowhere near Andersen's level. Raanta also played poorly in April with a lackluster .895 save percentage in seven appearances.

Odds

Here are the betting lines for Bruins vs. Hurricanes, via PointsBet. Carolina is favored to win the series.

  • Bruins to win the series: +105
  • Hurricanes to win the series: -125

Prediction

Bruins in six games.

The Bruins are a much better team since their last meeting against the Hurricanes on Feb. 10. Boston posted the second-best record (25-10-2) in the Eastern Conference following that loss. The B's also added Lindholm before the March 21 trade deadline and will enter the postseason as a healthier team than the 'Canes.

Carolina's issues in net are a potentially huge problem. The Bruins also are the best defensive team in the league, they have more experience than the Hurricanes and shouldn't be hurt too much by not having home ice advantage after winning 25 road games (tied for the most in the East). 

Unlike what we saw during the regular season, this should be a very close series with a bunch of one-goal games. The Bruins' edge in scoring depth and slightly better defensive play should carry them to Round 2, especially if Andersen misses multiple games.

Contact Us