Forsberg Four: Can Tristan Thompson get the Celtics defense on track?

Tristan Thompson’s left-handed swat on Derrick Rose’s fourth-quarter floater was so emphatic that the ball rocketed 20 feet in the opposite direction and allowed Jaylen Brown to race out for a transition layup in what had been a one-possession game.

That Thompson was even on the floor entering crunch time and had the stamina to produce the loudest of his three blocks on the night was noteworthy. Thompson had missed the past three weeks after what he would later term a 12-round battle with COVID.

On a night the Celtics needed a bit of a pick-me-up, Thompson produced maybe his finest outing in green. He finished with 7 points and 8 rebounds over 22 minutes but was a team-best plus-24 in plus/minus and set the defensive tone for a team that’s sorely lacked consistency on that end of the floor this season.

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For this week’s edition of the Forsberg Four — watch the video version on Celtics Post-Up — we honed in on some of the more notable numbers for Thompson while pondering just how much he can help this team down the stretch.

72.7

That was Boston’s defensive rating with Thompson on the floor on Wednesday night. That was 30.4 points per 100 possessions better than Boston's already glossy 103.1 defensive rating for the game. 

Single-game ratings can be fool’s gold so we decided to rewind and include Thompson’s last five games before he entered health and safety protocols to get a better idea of how his defense has impacted Boston lately. The Celtics own a defensive rating of 95.7 in Thompson’s 124 minutes of floor time over his last six games. That’s 15.9 points per 100 possessions better than their 16th-ranked defensive rating for the season.

To put it another way, a Celtics team that has struggled mightily to play with any sort of defensive consistency this season has operated at an elite level with Thompson on the floor lately.

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14.3

That’s what Knicks players shot against Thompson on Wednesday night, making just 2 of 14 shots, per the league’s matchup data. RJ Barrett was the only player to score on Thompson, who allowed 8 total points over 29.3 partial possessions defended. He added a steal to his three blocks.

Over the last six games, Thompson has limited opponents to 35.7 percent shooting overall (20 of 56). That’s 9.5 percent below those players’ expected field goal percentage.

Thompson’s defensive field goal percentage at the start of the year was an eyesore but he’s been far more impactful in the second half of the season.

+62

That is Thompson’s plus/minus in his last six appearances. He’s averaging 9 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.5 assists over 20.6 minutes per game in that span. The Celtics are 5-1 in those games.

Early in the season, Boston’s clunky double-big lineups, often featuring Thompson and Daniel Theis, struggled to positively impact winning. With Boston’s depth chart thinned out and the Celtics leaning on more familiar single-big lineups, Thompson’s impact has been more noticeable.

26

That’s the total number of days that Thompson has lost this season  while in healthy and safety protocols. It’s the second highest total in the league, according to COVID tracking by Fansure.

The final 20 games are a chance for Thompson and the Celtics to develop some much-needed chemistry and cohesion. Even as Robert Williams blossom with a heavier workload, there are 20-24 minutes a night available for Thompson to leave his mark. And it’s gotta start on the defensive end and on the glass. 

"My whole thing is being healthy when it matters,” Thompson said after Wednesday’s win, dismissing how Boston lingers seventh in the Eastern Conference and would be in the play-in game if the season ended today. "Of course, for us, we've haven't had a healthy squad. Adding Fournier, him out with his safety protocols, so we haven’t had full health. So I think regular-season matters in terms of just building chemistry but that's s—'s out the window when we get to playoffs.”

Thompson’s early season struggles left many panning Danny Ainge’s biggest offseason splurge. Some lamented how Boston essentially chose signing Thompson using the full value of the midlevel over potentially pursuing Myles Turner when Gordon Hayward was pondering his next destination.

Thompson still has maddening habits, like sometimes having blinders after collecting one of his many offensive rebounds, then trying to force up putbacks instead of spraying the ball out to shooters. But his championship experience and veteran leadership could be super important to a young team that’s playoff path will be exponentially harder because of their regular-season woes.

Thompson’s defense has been solid lately but history suggests he’s not any sort of Joel Embiid or Giannis Antetokounmpo stopper. Still, the Celtics need him to take on those challenges and provide a physical back-line presence against those sort of bigs. Williams struggled mightily to play without fouling when Embiid shredded the Celtics the night before Thompson’s return his this week. 

Asked what Thompson can bring, Celtics guard Marcus Smart said: "More toughness, more energy. He brings that energy. He really controls the boards for us, and he does a really good job at it. He does a really good job at getting us extra possessions, does a really good job of protecting us when we make mistakes on the defensive end. And then, on the offensive end, he does a really good job at getting us those extra shots and finding guys and doing what he does best. So it’s great to have a guy like Tristan.”