Meet the new Heat ... same as the old Heat?
The Celtics and Heat will square off in the Eastern Conference Finals for the second consecutive season, with Boston rallying from a 3-2 second-round deficit to defeat the Philadelphia 76ers and Miami continuing its remarkable postseason run as a No. 8 seed by dispatching the No. 5 seed New York Knicks in six.
On paper, the Celtics have a clear edge: They boast a top-five offense and defense with an incredibly deep roster led by two All-NBA talents in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The Heat won nine fewer games this season after entering the 2022 playoffs as the No. 1 seed, and their leading postseason scored behind Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo is Gabe Vincent.
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But make no mistake: The Heat will show up to play.
Miami plays with a massive chip on its shoulder and is led by a postseason wrecking ball in Butler, whose 31.1 points per game in these playoffs leads all teams still remaining. The Heat have already upset two supposedly superior opponents and fully believe they can take down the Celtics after taking them to Game 7 last year.
Boston Celtics
So, how will this series be decided? Based on each team's style of play and their previous matchups, here are three stats that could determine who wins this series, ranked by reverse order of importance:
3. Bench scoring
Yes, Butler is the straw that stirs the Heat's drink. But what if we told you that Miami's postseason leader in net rating is ... Duncan Robinson?
The Heat have been powered by surprisingly strong bench production this postseason, getting 34.4 points per game from their reserves (third-most among playoff teams). Six Miami players are averaging 10 or more points per game in the playoffs, and that doesn't include Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo, who were both lost to injury after a combined three games.
Contrast that to the Celtics, who have been surprisingly top-heavy in the scoring department: Tatum, Brown, Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon have accounted for more than 70 percent of Boston's points in the playoffs.
If the C's wrap up this series in fewer than seven games, it could be thanks to scoring contributions from the likes of Derrick White and Grant Williams, who has two points total in his last four four games but averaged 8.7 points per game in the 2022 ECF.
On the other end, Boston should focus most of its attention on Butler but can't let the likes of Robinson and Caleb Martin get hot from deep. Which leads us to our next stat...
2. 3-point shooting
You knew this was coming. Few teams value the 3-point shot more than the Celtics and their math-loving head coach, Joe Mazzulla. The C's can bury teams under an avalanche of threes -- they led the East in made 3-pointers this season while ranking second in scoring -- but when their deep shots aren't falling, it spells trouble. Consider these 2023 postseason splits:
- Celtics' playoff record when making 12 or fewer 3-pointers: 0-3
- Celtics' playoff record when making 13 or more 3-pointers: 8-2
That's not ideal against a Heat team that has defended the 3-point line well of late; Miami is allowing just over 12.8 made 3-pointers per game this postseason and just held the Knicks to 10 or fewer threes in four of their six second-round games.
Boston boasts a better offense with better shooters than the Knicks. But Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra knows that 3-pointers are crucial to the Celtics' success, which means he'll throw defenses at the C's that will be focused on limiting their outside shots.
1. Turnovers
If the Celtics take care of the ball, they should hoisting the Larry Bird trophy in two weeks.
That may sound like an oversimplification, but limiting turnovers should be Boston's No. 1 priority in this series. Exhibit A: The 2022 ECF, where the Celtics' magic number for turnovers was 15.
- Celtics' 2022 ECF record with 15 or fewer turnovers: 4-0
- Celtics 2022 ECF record with 16 or more turnovers: 0-3
Mazzulla's squad has managed to somewhat decouple turnovers from losses this postseason; the Celtics are 4-1 to date when they commit more than 16 turnovers in a game. But the Heat are a different beast: They lead all teams in the 2023 postseason with 20.4 points off turnovers per game, with nearly one fifth of their entire offensive production coming off turnovers.
Put another way, no team relies more on their defense to create offense than the Heat. If the C's are disciplined offensively, that should benefit them greatly on both ends and help them contain a Miami offense that's decidedly mediocre in the half-court.