Forsberg's Mailbag: Is Tatum's heavy workload a concern for Celtics?

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The Boston Celtics will finish February at an NBA-best 9-2 overall. For the month, the Celtics rank first in defensive rating (101.4) and net rating (+15.1), and ninth in offensive rating (116.5).

They’ve shimmied up to sixth in the Eastern Conference and still have a chance to climb into the top four given the jumble of the teams above the play-in line.

And yet there are still plenty of questions about the team moving forward, especially after a couple of stumbles against inferior competition late in the month, along with a schedule that’s about to spike in difficulty.Let’s dive into your questions:

What seed do you think the Celts could honestly get up to by the end of the season? — @MattKlayman_15

Some projections -- like one at FiveThirtyEight -- remain bullish on Boston pushing towards 49 wins and a top-four spot in the East. The team's juiced point differential and gaudy February stats are probably pushing that number a bit high.

The Celtics would need a 13-6 record over the final 19 to hit 49 wins. That seems slightly optimistic considering Boston has the fourth-toughest remaining schedule (based on opponent winning percentage) along with a four-games-in-six-night west coast road trip in the middle of March.

Are the C's for real? These upcoming 'measuring stick' games may tell us

Some teams will value rest and others will push for seeding at the finish line, so it’s nearly impossible to truly project how it all might shake out. Looking at the matchups right now and assuming close to full health, we can see the Celtics going more like 11-8 and finishing fifth or sixth in the East.

Just how hard Boston pushes -- or how much it eases up -- might hinge on preferred playoff matchup.

Assuming Celtics finish in the 5th or 6th spot, who do you think most favorable matchup for them in round one? -- @SBussberg

The obvious answers are Cleveland and Chicago. The Cavaliers are young and lack offensive weapons; the Bulls have offensive talent but have weak defensive personnel that you potentially exploit.

Ranking the Celtics' potential playoff opponents in East

Drawing the Bucks seems like the only nightmare scenario. Philadelphia is obviously less than ideal, too, but we at least feel like Al Horford would get dunked in the fountain of youth playing against Joel Embiid. We could see that being a highly competitive series between two very familiar squads.

Al Horford is the key to the Celtics’ defense. Many won't say that but it's the reality. -- @PabloRiveraNc

Horford is vital in the sense that his presence allows Robert Williams even more freedom to roam and create havoc.

It’s telling that the Celtics have a defensive rating of 92.1 in the 322 minutes that Horford and the Core Four have played together as Boston’s primary starting group. The defensive rating spikes to 106.5 in the 74 minutes with Grant Williams and the Core Four.

Nights like Sunday in Indiana accentuate Horford’s importance, but the team should still be able to play better than it did in that game. It’s a tiny 16-minute sample size but Boston’s defensive rating is still glossy (85.7) when it goes small with Derrick White and the Core Four.

Given Horford’s age, the Celtics must find lineups that maintain a high level of defensive consistency even if he’s not able to play big minutes.

Do you think Tatum might be dealing with any fatigue? He’s played a lot since he’s came into the league. Do you think Ime’s playoff rotation so early would make the team more fatigued? -- @UnclePreme

Combining this with … 

Do you think Ime’s short rotation will come back to bite the Cs? -- @CdreMattDecker

Jayson Tatum is on pace to play roughly 2,800 regular-season minutes this year. That’s about 350 more than any season in his NBA career. Combine that with the condensed pandemic schedule in recent years, along with multiple international offseason forays, and workload is absolutely a concern.

The positive: Tatum is a gamer who clearly wants to be out there every night. But combine the uptick in minutes with the stress of being the focal point of the team and it’s absolutely fair to worry about what he might have left in the tank by season’s end, especially with how much of a grind the playoffs can be.

Outside of smaller lineups with White, the Celtics just don’t have a lot of reliable wing depth to limit the minutes of Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

We’d like to see Udoka find spots for Aaron Nesmith, even if just in lopsided games. We also wouldn’t be opposed to tossing Sam Hauser into the fire for a handful of minutes each night and letting him add shooting to reserve groups while there’s still likely a Jay on the floor. But clearly Udoka has decided this team will go just about as far as the top seven can carry them, and the Celtics can better address depth this offseason.

Where are the minutes for Aaron Nesmith? An 8-man rotation is not sustainable long-term, and he needs to play to improve. -- @skippyson

Agreed. But, as much as we’ve been screaming for more Nesmith minutes this season, he has to be more consistent when he’s out there.

Last season, it felt like he impacted the game with his energy even when his shot wasn’t falling. This year we haven’t always felt that way. Nesmith needs to harness that energy again and find a way to be a positive until he finds consistency with his shot.

Come playoff time will Daniel Theis have a bigger role on this team and can we expect decent minutes from him? -- @RagingCeltics

Theis had a rough night in Indy. You can see his obvious chemistry with former teammates over his initial return but it was surprising to see Pacers just blow past him.

Maybe he’s still shaking rust after all the inactivity in Houston. Either way, we’d expect Udoka to lean heavy on a three-man frontcourt (Rob, Grant and Horford) with Theis more deep depth in case of foul trouble or injuries.

It seems the C's have had many losses where they are shooting poorly from 3 and the other team is nailing 3s left and right. Why don’t they make in-game adjustments when they are cold beyond the arc? You can’t keep tossing 3s when you’re shooting 25%, it kills momentum. -- @mpferrante77

For whatever reason, this team just hasn’t been great with adversity, whether it’s hosing off opponents when they are hot from beyond the arc or sticking to the game plan in crunch-time situations.

The Celtics too often go away from what works for them in those moments. Late in the second quarter against Indy, Udoka called timeout and the next three offensive plays all went at the basket. But it didn’t sustain, the Celtics went back to chucking threes.

This team simply has to be better on both ends in those situations. They can’t get discouraged, defensively, because teams are making shots. And they can’t expect to get it all back by matching with 3-point makes.

We sometimes laugh when Brad Stevens talks about "hitting singles," but his point is valid when his team so frequently -- and maddeningly -- looks for home runs.

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