BOSTON – Outside of the Boston Celtics locker room, you’re not going to find a ton of folks buying the Boston Celtics will win this series.
And while there’s plenty of data to justify reaching that conclusion, the Celtics have every reason to believe that they are going to wind up back in the Eastern Conference finals for the second year in a row.
From the moment Gordon Hayward suffered a season-ending ankle injury just five minutes into the season, the expectations outside of the Celtics locker room took a major step back.
At full strength, one could easily see this team getting to the NBA Finals and giving Golden State or whoever was there, a competitive series.
Take Hayward out of the equation and a realistic best-case scenario would be getting back to the Eastern Conference finals just as long as Kyrie Irving was around which … he’s not. And because of the left knee procedure he had performed after an infection was detected that will keep him out for all of the playoffs, once again the expectations outside of Celtics Nation take yet another step back.
But here’s the thing.
If those were the only two setbacks of significance, you could see how Boston might still be a team many have faith in to make a potential run towards the Conference finals.
Boston Celtics
But they are playing without Daniel Theis (knee) who was a high-energy, rebounding, long-armed defender whose strengths can not be replicated by any individual Celtic. And then you have Jaylen Brown who went down with a right hamstring injury that’s likely to keep him out for tonight’s Game 1 matchup and potentially longer. It adds up to a team that’s ripe to knocked out of the postseason right?
There’s no doubt the path towards getting back to the Conference finals is indeed a lot tougher for Boston, it is by no means an impossible mission.
Here’s a look at five factors that could result in the Celtics finding a pathway of success towards a second straight trip to the Eastern Conference finals.
DEFENDING JOEL EMBIID
Last series, it was Semi Ojeyleye’s defense that saved the season on several fronts for Boston. Aron Baynes has the potential to deliver a similar impact in this series when he’s guarding all-star center Joel Embiid. Baynes, who had the best defensive rating (97.0) of any player in the league this season who appeared in at least 50 games, has more than held his own in the three previous games this season when the Celtics faced the Sixers with Embiid playing.
In those three games, Embiid was 20-for-52 shooting (38.5 percent) and that includes a 10-for-19 performance in Philly’s lone victory over the Celtics in the regular season. If Baynes’ defense can limit Embiid to being a sub-40 percent shooter from the field, the Celtics’ chances of advancing past the Sixers improves dramatically.
MARCUS MORRIS
There may not be a bigger wild card among Boston’s healthy players in this series than Morris. The Philadelphia native has shown the ability to run jacuzzi-hot or dead-of-winter-cold when it comes to knocking down shots. We saw this play out in Boston’s 4-3 series win over Milwaukee. In Boston’s four wins, Morris shot 44.9 percent from the field. But in the three losses, Morris’ shooting dipped to just 30.6 percent. With Terry Rozier in the starting lineup, much of the offensive burden for the Celtics in terms of bench scoring, will fall upon the shoulders of Morris.
LOW TURNOVERS
Boston was middle of the pack this season when it came to turnovers, averaging 14.0 per game which ranked 15th out of the 30 NBA teams. But against the Sixers, the Celtics and their miscues were factors that kept Philadelphia within striking distance in every game. In the four games, Boston turned the ball over 18.3 times per game, leading to an average of 17.5 points off of turnovers. The Celtics need to get that turnover number down to single digits and whatever points are generated off those mistakes, that too has to be single digits or low teens.
TERRY ROZIER
The Milwaukee playoff series was an eye-opener for many as to how good Rozier can be when given an opportunity to run a team as a starting point guard. His role was far more limited during the regular season because of Kyrie Irving’s presence, which is understandable. But Rozier did a lot of positive things in the Bucks series, showcasing that he can do more than just score the ball but can also be an effective set-up man. He averaged 6.7 assists per game. And his 4.2 assists-to-turnover ratio is tops among all players in the postseason who average at least six assists and play more than 30 minutes per game.
WILD CARD OPTIONS
Against the Milwaukee Bucks, it was Semi Ojeleye who went from hardly playing, to becoming hard to get off the floor because of his defense against Giannis Antetokounmpo. For Boston to advance past Philadelphia, they’re likely going to need a player to emerge as a change-of-pace difference maker, or someone whose knocking down shots that normally doesn’t. If Marcus Smart can get into one of those can’t-miss shooting zones he has been in from time to time and still defend at an elite level, Boston becomes extremely tough to put away. Another player to keep an eye on is Shane Larkin. He too can go through hot-shooting stretches. But even when he’s not doing that, Larkin has also shown a knack for picking up the pace at both ends of the floor for Boston and in doing so, swing the game’s momentum at times in Boston’s favor. And let’s not forget about Greg Monroe. He too will get a crack or two at defending Joel Embiid. And in those instances where the Celtics decide to keep him on the floor when Embiid leaves, that might be a prime opportunity for the Moose to get loose. The bottom line is the Celtics have a few options when it comes to wild card players. Not all of them have to play exceptional, but they definitely need a couple to step their game up if Boston is to move on to the Eastern Conference finals.