FiveThirtyEight's model gives Celtics best chance to win 2023 NBA Finals

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FiveThirtyEight's predictive model was more bullish than most on the Boston Celtics' chances of winning the NBA Finals last season, and that hasn't changed entering the 2022-23 campaign.

With a few hours to go before the Celtics open the new season by hosting the rival Philadelphia 76ers at TD Garden, FiveThirtyEight's model is giving Boston a 21 percent chance to win the 2023 NBA Finals.

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In fact, Boston's 21 percent is at least three times higher than any other Eastern Conference team. 

Here are the 11 teams with a five percent chance or better to win the Finals, per FiveThirtyEight:

  1. Boston Celtics: 21 percent
  2. Denver Nuggets: 13 percent
  3. Memphis Grizzlies: Eight percent
  4. Philadelphia 76ers: Seven percent
  5. Miami Heat: Six percent
  6. Dallas Mavericks: Six percent
  7. Atlanta Hawks: Six percent
  8. Golden State Warriors: Six percent
  9. Phoenix Suns: Five percent
  10. Toronto Raptors: Five percent
  11. Milwaukee Bucks: Five percent

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Surprisingly, the Los Angeles Clippers are not among this group. FiveThirtyEight gives the Clippers a three percent chance. Most oddsmakers have the Clippers in the top-tier of title favorites. If Kawhi Leonard and Paul George stay healthy, L.A. should be in the mix deep into the playoffs. That's a pretty huge IF, though.

LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers are among the nine teams given less than a 0.1 percent chance of claiming the Larry O'Brien Trophy.

The Celtics being at the top of this list is not too surprising. They have two stars in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, plus a talented supporting cast that goes nine or 10 players deep. It's also not uncommon for NBA Finals runner-ups to make it back to the championship round and finish the job in the following season. It's actually happened five times since 2008, with the most recent example being the Golden State Warriors in 2016-17.

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