Forsberg: Evaluating the current state of the Celtics
Between the NBA Draft and free agency, the Celtics roster underwent an extreme makeover over the course of just four days. But between all the arrivals and departures, the biggest question involves how the C's replace Gordon Hayward on the wing.
The Boston Celtics emerged from free agency’s frenetic opening weekend with a roster that might just be complete. Boston targeted shooting while adding Aaron Nesmith and Payton Pritchard in the draft, then infused some veteran experience onto their bench by adding Tristan Thompson and Jeff Teague via free agency.
Nothing was more important, however, than locking up Jayson Tatum to a five-year, maximum-salary rookie extension that could be worth as much as $195 million. So much of Boston’s title chances hinge on Tatum’s ascension and the Celtics have essentially guaranteed themselves a half decade with Tatum and Jaylen Brown as the core of this team.
There remains one particularly notable void. The departure of Gordon Hayward stripped the Celtics of an All-Star-caliber wing, one who often accentuated the talents of the Jays, and there is no obvious pathway to replacing what Hayward brought the team.
Our lingering question: How will the Celtics fill that void on the wing?
Let’s take a minute to reset Boston’s depth chart. Gone are Hayward, Brad Wanamaker (signed by Golden State), Enes Kanter (traded to Portland), and Vincent Poirier (traded to Oklahoma City). The Celtics are essentially at the 15-man roster limit and that’s before pondering if someone like Tremont Waters deserves to be elevated to the parent roster (some point guard additions might leave the team hoping he’ll consider a second tour in Maine).
Ball-Handlers: Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart, Jeff Teague, Payton Pritchard
Wings: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Aaron Nesmith, Romeo Langford, Semi Ojeleye, Javonte Green, Carsen Edwards
Bigs: Daniel Theis, Tristian Thompson, Robert Williams, Grant Williams
2-way: Tacko Fall, Tremont Waters
Stash: Yam Madar
That’s essentially a full roster but the Celtics do have some flexibility if they need to maneuver. Green is on a non-guaranteed deal until February and will unfortunately live on the roster bubble while the Celtics explore options. Ojeleye was a potential roster casualty before Hayward’s departure encouraged the Celtics to hold onto him. Edwards needs to show his offensive potential if he wants to protect his roster spot.
Forsberg: What's next for Celtics after Hayward's departure?
The easiest path to filling Hayward’s starter role is to elevate Smart. He’s started 111 of his 194 appearances during Hayward’s tenure in Boston so the team has plenty of experience with him with the first group. Adding Teague and Pritchard gives Boston other ball-handlers to run with bench units, too.
The question is whether Smart as a starter is the best long-term play for Boston. Smart took four extra shots per game in a starting role. His shooting percentages were almost identical and his scoring did jump from 10.1 points per game off the bench to 14.4 points per game as a starter. The question is whether the Celtics can best accentuate the talents of Tatum and Brown by adding more pure shooting to the first unit. The other question is whether Boston’s best bench production could come from having Smart as an early sub who still finishes games.
How NBA Draft, free agency changed Celtics' 2021 title odds
This isn’t a start-of-the-season option but we wonder if Nesmith or Langford could eventually slot into Hayward’s starting role. This might be a 2021-22 question given the circumstances. Nesmith hasn’t played a real game since January and will dive into his first NBA season without the benefit of summer league or a true training camp. Langford is still in a cast and will almost certainly be sidelined for the start of the season.
One of those two players eventually developing into a bonafide starter is important for Boston. Nesmith’s shooting could open the floor for the Jays, especially when a non-shooting big like Thompson is on the court. Langford is still working on his shot but has Hayward-like ability to run the pick-and-roll and create for himself and others.
In the bigger picture, getting both of those recent first-round draft picks to develop into core pieces of this team that can grow alongside Tatum and Brown is supremely important to where this team wants to go.
The Celtics have been synonymous with small ball during the Brad Stevens era but here’s one other potential pathway to filling Hayward’s void: More 2-big lineups.
With Thompson’s arrival, it seems likely that Grant Williams will see more time at the power forward position. If Williams can continue to shoot the way he did inside the bubble, the Celtics could go with some supersized lineups with Brown and Tatum at the 2-3 spots. That’s a lot of size and length on the floor. The Celtics would still have a whole bunch of versatility at the perimeter spots in that scenario.
How Tristan Thompson could end long Celtic rebounding drought
Until the Hornets officially ink Hayward, there remains the possibility that Boston could engage Charlotte on a sign-and-trade deal with hopes of recouping a trade exception equal to Hayward’s first-year salary (so somewhere around $30 million). Boston would likely have to send a sweetener to get Charlotte to consider it but the Celtics aided the Hornets in delivering Terry Rozier via sign and trade last offseason.
A trade exception would allow Boston to take back a player in a trade without having to send out matching salary. If a team was selling off, say, a $15 million wing to clear cap space, the Celtics could swoop in and make a play without having to send, say, Marcus Smart in order to make salaries match.
One hurdle: Having used the full value of the mid-level exception to sign Thompson, the Celtics cannot creep into the luxury tax, which would limit just how big of a splash the team could make in a trade acquisition. Still, it would be an important asset with hopes of adding an impact body.
The Celtics also generated two smaller trade exceptions when they dealt Enes Kanter ($5 million) and Vincent Poirier ($2.5 million), which could be likewise useful in pursuit of a talent above a minimum salary.
Regardless of how the Hayward situation resolves, the Hornets seem likely to use the stretch provision on veteran swingman Nic Batum to clear the necessary cap space for Hayward. While Batum certainly hasn’t lived up to the expectations of his bulky deal in Charlotte, one that was scheduled to pay him $27.1 million this season, he’s an intriguing option at a greatly reduced number. He’s going to get his full salary from Charlotte and the Celtics could offer him up to the $3.6 million biannual exception to spend next season in Boston.
Batum has started 714 of his 789 career games. He appeared in just 22 games last season, starting only three. While his production has dipped, he did shoot 38.9 percent beyond the 3-point arc during the 2018-19 season and has averaged 11.6 points per game for his career. Batum will turn 32 before the start of the new season and there might simply not be anything left in the tank. But he’s familiar with Kemba Walker and could be worth a look, even if just a constant reminder to the Hornets of how much they are paying overall to add Hayward.
What could sign-and-trade with Hornets look like?
The remaining wings on the free-agent market are underwhelming at best.
Does Glen Robinson III do anything for you? Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is out there but shot 21.3 percent beyond the 3-point arc for his career. There’s soon-to-be 40-year-old Kyle Korver, who might be knocking down 3s until he’s 50, but his defense would be a concern.
Could Walker coax Marvin Williams out of early retirement? After electing to join the Bucks over the Celtics last year, Williams isn’t the answer at starter but could be a veteran body off the bench if the Celtics are comfortable with Smart in the starting role.
Maybe the most prudent path forward is to simply wait and assess options down the road, especially if the Celtics end up with a big trade exception. Boston would be in position to pounce at the trade deadilne without having to gut their roster.
Maybe the team could pry P.J. Tucker out of Houston depending on what happens with the Rockets? Teams that find themselves out of the title hunt will be willing to move impact bodies as teams turn their attention to generating cap space for the 2021 offseason bonanza.
Regardless of the path, the Celtics, as currently constituted, do not have the same ceiling as they did with Hayward on the roster. Maybe he would have never been healthy enough to help them reach that championship potential but it’s undeniable that his departure leaves a talent void.
Some of that could be offset by the development of Tatum and Brown, but as the East beefs up, the Celtics need to keep pace. Boston must continue to explore avenues to adding complementary talent, even if there’s no immediate option to do such.
