This insane stat shows how improbable Heat's 2-1 lead over Celtics really is

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The Miami Heat have a 2-1 series lead over the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals entering Monday night's pivotal Game 4 at TD Garden.

The Heat easily could be trailing the series 0-3.

Miami was outplayed in Game 1 except for the third quarter, when it outscored Boston 39-14 en route to a series opening victory. The Celtics bounced back with a 25-point victory in Game 2. They outplayed the Heat for most of Game 3, too, but put themselves in an early 21-point hole at the end of the first quarter.

Forsberg: There's only one team that can stop the Celtics

The Heat have won just two of the first 12 quarters of the series. They are the only team in NBA playoff history to do that and have a 2-1 series advantage.

Here's a quarter-by-quarter breakdown of the series.

Game 1 (119-107 MIA)
1st: 28-25
2nd: 34-29
3rd: 39-14 (Heat)
4th: 31-25

Game 2 (127-102 BOS)
1st: 35-24
2nd: 35-21
3rd: 26-26
4th: 31-31

Game 3 (109-103 MIA)
1st: 39-18 (Heat)
2nd: 29-23
3rd: 25-25
4th: 31-22

The Celtics will win this series if they take care of the basketball. They committed 23 turnovers in Game 3 and the Heat scored 33 points off of them. Jaylen Brown scored a game-high 40 points but tallied seven turnovers. Jayson Tatum scored just 10 points and committed six turnovers.

Boston is a more talented and deeper team than Miami, but those things don't matter if you give a quality opponent too many extra opportunities to score. This series has been a physical one and the referees, at least for the most part, are letting a lot of stuff go. If that trend continues, the Celtics will have to show a lot more concentration and discipline with their passing and not let the Heat rack up 19 steals like they did in Game 3.

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