Forsberg: Tatum's dominant week proves his MVP campaign is for real

It’s stating the obvious to suggest that Jayson Tatum has entered the MVP conversation.

In fact, Tatum didn’t just knock on the door and check with the front desk to see if his name was on the invite list. No, with his loud play to start the 2022-23 season, he arrived in sunglasses, broke the door with a battering ram, and plopped down in the comfiest chair in the room.

Scoff if you think MVP chatter is a bit preposterous 13 games into the season -- and we’re not going to argue with you -- but the larger point here is that Tatum has asserted himself among the NBA’s elite with his early season play. And, invariably, that conversation is framed around the race for the MVP trophy.

Tatum faces a bit of an uphill climb to ultimately win the award. Not because of his talent, which is undeniable now as he elevates his play beyond even his toastiest of second-half hot streaks, but because his pathway is simply murkier than his primary competition in Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Doncic.

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This past week, however, Tatum did two things that truly launched his MVP candidacy. First, he outdueled two MVP candidates. Tatum went into Memphis and, in a showdown with Ja Morant, dominated at both ends of the floor while lifting the Celtics to a gritty win. Four days later, Tatum outshined Nikola Jokic in Boston’s win at TD Garden.

Some will make the case that Tatum benefited in both instances from a better supporting cast than both those players, and Boston’s overall talent level this season is undeniable.

And that is why Saturday’s visit to Detroit needs to be bookmarked. The Celtics played without three of their typical top six players in Jaylen Brown (knee bruise), Al Horford (chronic second night of back-to-back lower back soreness), and Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring soreness). Yes, it was the frisky-yet-lowly Pistons, but the Celtics didn’t have their usual energy and Tatum threw the team on his back for stretches as part of a 43-point night.

Jayson Tatum went OFF for 43 points vs. Detroit 🔥. Check out every bucket☘️ pic.twitter.com/Q7etYT4YTQ

— Celtics on NBC Sports Boston (@NBCSCeltics) November 13, 2022

During one sequence, after Tatum was already rolling, former Celtics assistant coach Jerome Allen screamed at his Detroit players to send multiple bodies towards Tatum as he dribbled in front of the Pistons bench. Detroit’s defense was slow to react and Tatum rose up for a 3-pointer as a defeated Allen plopped back into his chair.

Tatum’s presence alone aided his cause. He doesn’t miss games. Aside from bouts with COVID, he’s been on the court just about every possible chance the past two seasons. He’s still got his left wrist taped heavily after grinding through last year with what he eventually revealed was a non-displaced fracture.

That's hardly hindered him while averaging 32.3 points over 37.5 minutes per game this year. Tatum is shooting 50 percent from the floor, 38.7 percent beyond the 3-point arc, and 87.2 percent at the free-throw line. And his jump shooting could still be a bit more consistent.

Entering Saturday’s game, Tatum was shooting a career-best 79 percent on all shots near the rim. That’s up a staggering 11 percent from last year. Tatum’s gotten more creative around the basket, grinding through contact, finishing with his left hand, and displaying a more useful floater. He’s also been far more aggressive and getting to the free throw line with more regularity.

Over Boston’s six-game winning streak, the Celtics own an offensive rating of 130.1 and a net rating of +17.6 during Tatum’s team-high 226 minutes on the court (40 more than any other player). Those numbers plummet to an offensive rating of 98.5 and a minus-10.5 net rating in his mere 62 minutes on the bench.

The Celtics own the best offense in the NBA with a staggering offensive rating of 119.4. The Jazz are second at 115.6, or 3.8 points behind Boston. The Celtics are on pace to own the highest offensive rating in league history (Brooklyn at 117.3 in 2020-21).

What’s more, Boston’s true shooting percentage of 61.7 would also be an NBA record. Only the 2020-21 Nets (61) and the 2017-18 Warriors (60.3) have finished north of 60.

So, yes, it may be way too early to be thinking about the MVP. Injuries can change the outlook of that race in moments. But Tatum has clearly arrived in a new stratosphere among the NBA’s top players.

If Tatum is going to maintain that place in line -- or try to shuffle closer to the front -- Boston needs to keep rolling. Being the best player on the team with the best record in the league (or at least the conference) would surely aid his case. The Celtics at 10-3 have the second-best record in basketball behind Antetokounmpo’s Bucks (10-2). The Mavericks aren’t helping Doncic’s case at 7-5.

If Boston continues to flirt with a historic offense, it will only strengthen Tatum’s case as the centerpiece of that group. But it’s his two-way impact that ought to cement a spot near the top. Tatum has had All-Defense-caliber moments in recent games, first blocking Donovan Mitchell’s attempt at a game-winner in Cleveland and then taking on the challenge of defending Morant in crunch time in Memphis.

Jayson Tatum: This is the 'best I've felt' to begin a season

Maybe the bigger point here is that, motivated by Boston’s loss in the Finals, Tatum has arrived with fresh motivation this year. He’s harnessed all his potential and is more consistently showing it. His growth and maturation is evident. He’s a more complete player and one without an obvious weakness. Tatum can score at every level and often makes it look easy, and he can ramp up his defensive intensity when needed.

Consistency has been one of his few weaknesses in past seasons (complaining about calls, too; but that’s a work in progress). For all his ability, Tatum would start slow, or disappear at times for a quarter or a half. This year, he’s done neither. Tatum hit the ground running and has been impactful throughout games, including when paired with second-unit lineups.

It’s why a lot of ink will be spilled in November writing about Tatum’s ascension to the MVP conversation. There’s a long road to determining exactly who will ultimately emerge with that trophy, but if Tatum maintains this level of play deep into the season, his name won’t fade from that conversation.