It's not easy to find many people right now who believe the Miami Heat will beat the Boston Celtics in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Friday night.
And that's not a major surprise at all.
The Celtics are headed back to Boston with a 3-2 series lead after defeating the Heat 93-80 in Game 5 at FTX Arena on Wednesday night.
Stay in the game with the latest updates on your beloved Boston sports teams! Sign up here for our All Access Daily newsletter.
Celtics Talk: Too early to start thinking about Finals? Celtics one win away after Game 5 win over Heat | Listen & Subscribe | Watch on YouTube
The Heat are a banged up team. Jimmy Butler's knee is clearly an issue. Kyle Lowry is pretty much unplayable given his hamstring issues. Tyler Herro has missed the last two games with a groin injury. Max Strus was limping around at times during Game 5. The Heat are just worn down, and it doesn't help that they're going up against the league's best defense.
Oddsmakers don't see much hope for Miami, either. They have made the Celtics huge favorites to win Game 6 and reach the NBA Finals for the first time since 2010.
Check out the latest betting lines for Friday night's matchup, via PointsBet.
- Spread: Celtics -9 (-110), Heat +9 (-110)
- Moneyline: Celtics -425, Heat +330
- Points Total: Over 202 points (-110), Under 202 points (-110)
The Celtics have had their own injury issues to deal with, most notably involving center Robert Williams (knee) and point Marcus Smart (ankle). That said, Williams has played the last two games and performed well. Smart missed Game 1 and Game 4 but was back in the lineup for Game 5.
Boston Celtics
Udoka reveals his message for Jaylen Brown that helped spark Celtics' Game 5 win
The key for the Celtics is not committing turnovers. When they take care of the ball, it's very difficult for the Heat to score because Miami is having loads of trouble executing offensively versus Boston's halfcourt defense. The Heat don't have enough quality shot creators with Butler and Lowry at less than 100 percent, plus Herro not even playing.
Miami was held to just 82 points in Game 4 and 80 points in Game 5 -- well below its regular season average of 104.3 points.
Unless the Celtics throw the ball away constantly and commit 20-plus turnovers like they did in Game 3 -- and still almost won, by the way -- it's hard to see the Heat grinding out a road victory to extend the series to a Game 7.