Forsberg: Inconsistent C's seem bound for play-in tournament

Here's the sobering reality for the Boston Celtics: Their playoff fate is no longer in their control and hopes of avoiding the NBA play-in tournament will ultimately require a rival to stumble over the final week of the 2020-21 regular season.

After weeks of trying to navigate their way to premium seeding in an Eastern Conference traffic jam, the Celtics are now stuck at a seventh-seed stop light. With Sunday’s loss to the Heat, Boston has slipped two games back of Miami with only four games remaining. And instead of worrying about the teams motoring away in front of them, it might be time for the Celtics to start checking their rearview mirrors.

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A rematch with Miami on Tuesday offers a microscopic hope of one last surge for a top-six spot. The more likely scenario has the Celtics trying to fend off the Charlotte Hornets, who had pulled within 1.5 games before a Sunday night tilt with the New Orleans Pelicans.

If the standings maintain, Boston would host the Hornets in a single-game play-in matchup for the right to be the East’s No. 7 seed. Whoever loses that game would then meet the winner of a single-game matchup between the Nos. 9 and. 10 seeds. The winner of that second game earns the No. 8 seed.

East standings as of Sunday

A large “play-in tournament” advertisement ominously glowed next to the Celtics' bench during Sunday’s game. It was a particularly sinister sight as the Celtics gave up a head-shaking 79 first-half points against the Heat. Boston made a spirited second-half surge but never got close enough to truly make Miami sweat. 

Watching Boston fail to hose off the Heat in the first half was troubling in multiple ways. In what felt like a playoff-caliber matchup between two teams desperate to avoid the play-in possibility, the Celtics offered little resistance. They didn’t seem to be able to match Miami’s execution or intensity. Slow starts and poor defense have consistently been issues for a team that doesn’t do anything positive consistently.

Over Boston’s last eight games, its defensive rating is 118.1. That’s the fourth-worst mark in the NBA in that span behind only the Cavaliers, Rockets, and Spurs.

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Boston has routinely dug itself double-digit deficits this season and no one can figure out why it keeps happening. The Celtics’ second-half run was expected but so too was coming up short. This was not the Spurs team that let Boston rally from 32 down on the other side. And Jayson Tatum didn’t have any of his 60-point magic on a night where the Celtics really needed him to carry them.

Ultimately, it’s hard to be inspired about what’s ahead for this Celtics team. Robert Williams toughed out the first half despite playing with turf toe but departed at halftime. Celtics coach Brad Stevens thinks Williams could be a game-time decision moving forward while he manages the injury.

Jaylen Brown missed another game with a sprained right ankle. Stevens was likewise cryptic when asked about his status before Sunday’s game, saying only, “We'll just have more information [Monday] and we'll figure it out from there.”

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The Celtics have never had their top seven players healthy for any game this season. That doesn’t look like it’s going to change any time soon. This team is left clinging to the hope of some semblance of health and catching lightning in a bottle in the playoffs. All while the playoff path gets more daunting with every regular-season loss.

The lowly play-in tournament might simply be appropriate for these wayward Celtics. Boston is going to have to scrap just to get into the actual playoffs, and the reward will be one of the East’s top two teams (the 76ers, Nets or Bucks).

There have been factors beyond the team’s control, particularly all the COVID woes endured. And, yet, the Celtics have simply never put themselves in position to thrive. They’ve consistently made their lives more difficult — whether that’s the big in-game deficits, or the standings predicament from letting too many winnable games slip away.

More troublesome, this team still has not shown it’s willing to put in the effort to change their ways.