It's "Choose Your Own Adventure" time for the Boston Celtics.
After thrashing the Bulls 117-94 in Chicago, the Celtics (50-30) own sole possession of second place in the Eastern Conference with two games remaining. They're 0.5 games ahead of both the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers -- and they'll face the Bucks in Milwaukee on Thursday night.
So, Thursday's game likely will decide the No. 2 seed. But do the Celtics want the No. 2 seed?
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Celtics-Bulls takeaways: Should C's want to see Chicago in first round?
Good question. First, here are the updated East standings as of Thursday morning.
- Miami Heat
- Boston Celtics (2.0 games back)
- Milwaukee Bucks (2.5 GB)
- Philadelphia 76ers (2.5 GB)
- Toronto Raptors (5.5 GB)
- Chicago Bulls (7.0 GB)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (9.0 GB)*
- Brooklyn Nets (10.0 GB)*
- Atlanta Hawks (10.0 GB)*
- Charlotte Hornets (11.5 GB)*
*Play-in tournament
The Celtics are most likely to finish as either the No. 2 or No. 3 seed, with a 14.1% probability of slipping to No. 4, per Basketball Reference.
What are the first-round matchup implications of each finish? Let's break down the scenarios.
If the Celtics beat the Bucks...
Boston Celtics
... They'll come very close to locking up the No. 2 seed.
Boston would own tiebreakers of Milwaukee and Philly, so the only scenario in which the Celtics don't get the No. 2 seed here is if they lose to the Memphis Grizzlies in Sunday's season finale and the Sixers win their final three games against the Raptors, Pacers and Pistons.
The No. 2 seed would draw the winner of the play-in tournament -- which very well could be the Brooklyn Nets. If Brooklyn wins its final two games (vs. Cleveland, vs. Indiana) and beats the Cavs in the 7-8 matchup of the play-in, it gets the No. 7 seed.
If the Celtics don't want the possibility of facing Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in Round 1, then it's not in their best interest to win Thursday night in Milwaukee.
If the Celtics lose to the Bucks...
... The No. 3 seed is the most likely scenario.
A lot depends on how the Sixers fare Thursday night in Toronto, as Philly could drop Boston to the No. 4 seed by winning out in this scenario. But if the Celtics lose in Milwaukee and the Sixers lose at least one of their last three, then Boston should finish third in the East.
That would mean a first-round matchup with the Bulls, who are all but locked into the No. 6 seed. Based on what we saw Wednesday night in Chicago, you have to like that matchup for the Celtics, even with big man Robert Williams expected to miss the first round with a torn meniscus.
So, how should the Celtics play this?
It depends on how confident you are in this team.
If you believe Boston can beat anyone -- including the Nets -- in Round 1, you should want the C's to beat Milwaukee and Memphis and earn the No. 2 seed, guaranteeing homecourt advantage in a potential second-round showdown with the Bucks or Sixers.
If you're wary of Durant and Irving, though, you want the Celtics to lose in Milwaukee and beat Memphis to land the No. 3 seed, setting up a likely first-round matchup with Chicago.
There are rational arguments on both sides. The C's have been playing well enough without Williams that they might be fine in a first-round series with Brooklyn. They've also been dominant on the road this season (historically dominant, in fact), so maybe home court in second round doesn't matter as much.
Considering the Celtics are on the second night of a back-to-back, they might go the latter route, resting veterans like Al Horford and perhaps limiting the minutes of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. And if they happen to lose to the Bucks, you'll know there's a silver lining.