Everyone knows that in fantasy sports, picking proper sleepers is what can make or break your team. In fantasy basketball, it's no different.
While the NBA runs on star power, there are plenty of solid contributors who make up starting lineups and fill key bench roles. Many young players als make massive strides during their first few seasons in the NBA, so they often end up being breakout candidates.
Picking which players are going to be breakout candidates can be tough. The last thing you want to do is overdraft a guy with upside who ends up plateauing and turning into a bust.
But you also have to make risky picks to ensure you field a competitive team. And that means finding the next great sleeper pick.
With that in mind, we pored over NBA rosters and attempted to find 10 sleepers who could end up being gems in 2019 fantasy drafts.
All ADP data is courtesy of FantasyPros.com. Last updated 10/17/19.
Bam Adebayo, C, Heat (ADP: 74). The Miami Heat moved on from Hassan Whiteside this offseason in order to roll with Adebayo as their primary starter at center. Adebayo is a great all-around player who averaged 8.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game last season despite playing just 23.3 minutes per game. In a full-time starting role, Adebayo could come closer to matching his numbers per 36 minutes from last season (13.7 points, 11.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.2 blocks). Considering Adebayo’s defensive prowess and his growth between his rookie season and sophomore campaign, he is a big-time breakout candidate and should come off the board a lot earlier than the 74th pick.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG/SG, Thunder (ADP: 80). The Thunder underwent massive changes during the offseason by trading Russell Westbrook and Paul George. Both players were ball-dominant scoring options for Oklahoma City: Westbrook had a 30.9 percent usage rate and George had a 29.8 percent usage rate. Their departure will open up the offense more for others to produce. While all eyes are currently on Chris Paul as the top fantasy option, Gilgeous-Alexander can’t be forgotten. The rookie played in all 82 games for the Clippers last season and averaged 10.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. He could grow a lot in his second season and given that he only had an 18.3 percent usage rate in Los Angeles, he could really make the leap if that number climbs into the low-20s.
Steven Adams, C, Thunder (ADP: 58). Much like with Gilgeous-Alexander, Adams has the opportunity to take on a bigger offensive role for the Thunder. Adams has improved his numbers every year since coming into the league and nearly averaged a double-double last season (13.9 points, 9.5 rebounds). His scoring numbers could go up with more chances to shoot the ball inside and his defensive ability (1.5 steals, 1.0 blocks per game) should help him outproduce his draft slot, as well. He’s coming off the board as the No. 17 overall center, but he could end up being a top-12 player at the position, if not better.
Jaylen Brown, SG/SF, Celtics (ADP: 109). Currently, Brown is being drafted behind the likes of Nicolas Batum, Terrence Ross, and Bojan Bogdanovic. That just doesn’t seem right. Brown figures to have a bigger role in the Celtics’ offense as a starter this season after averaging 13.0 points, 4.2 boards, and 1.4 assists off the bench this season. He showed off his improved skill set this preseason and could have an opportunity for more rebounds and steals as his defense improves. Also, since Brown is playing for his next contract, that will be added motivation for him to find success and perform well.
Malcolm Brogdon, PG/SG, Pacers (ADP: 66). Malcolm Brogdon put up a 50-40-90 season with the Bucks in 2018-19 and had an effective field goal percentage of 57.5. That efficiency is what led the Pacers to offer him a big contract in free agency. Brogdon has improved his scoring average every year since coming into the NBA three seasons ago, and he averaged 15.6 points per game last year as a third option on a loaded Bucks team. With Victor Oladipo still out and Darren Collison retiring, Brogdon could be the secondary option to Myles Turner in Indiana. He'll likely play point guard for the Pacers, too, which will give his 3.2 assists per game from last season a chance to improve. Even if Brogdon is less efficient, his volume of opportunity should increase on a team that has decidedly fewer star options than Milwaukee.
Derrick White, PG/SG, Spurs (ADP: 99). White is ranked very closely to Dejounte Murray (ADP 105) despite the fact that Murray missed all of last season with a torn ACL. White’s growth through two seasons mirrored that of Murray’s, and White got some extra action with Gregg Popovich during Team USA’s time at the FIBA World Cup. White averaged 9.9 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 3.9 assists last season in about 26 minutes per game. If he can continue to lock down a similar starting role and grow entering his third season, he should outproduce those numbers, even with Murray's return. One big way for him to do that would be to improve his 3-point shooting percentage (33.8 percent).
Jonathan Isaac, SF/PF, Magic (ADP: 95). Isaac is continuing to grow his game and seems ready to make the leap after an impressive preseason in which he averaged 10 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.6 blocks per game over 24.4 minutes. It’ll be hard to find a mid-draft small forward with more defensive upside than Isaac, so he should be a breakout target to go after in the middle rounds.
Bogdan Bogdanovic, SG/SF, Kings (ADP: 122). The lesser-know Bogdanovic brother improved his scoring average to 14.1 points per game while averaging 3.8 assists and 3.5 rebounds last season. He could continue to grow into an important part of the Sacramento offense, even if he is primarily being used as a bench player. Bogdanovic could be just as productive as his brother, Bojan, who is going 30 spots ahead of him, so Bogdan qualifies as a great value pickup.
Elfrid Payton, PG, Knicks (ADP: 208). Payton averaged 12.8 points, 9.2 assists, 6.3 rebounds, and 1.3 steals per 36 minutes last year with the Pelicans. This was despite having a usage rate of just 18.3 percent. Payton is behind Dennis Smith in the Knicks’ point-guard rotation, but he figures to be a crucial sixth- man for the team and could be a great facilitator for the young talent on the Knicks roster. It’s also worth noting that Smith missed 32 games last season and 13 in his first NBA season, so Payton could be in line for some work as a starter, though he has also had health concerns in each of the past two seasons.
Ish Smith, PG, Wizards (ADP: Undrafted). Somebody has to be Washington’s point guard and Isaiah Thomas is a bit banged up. Smith isn’t a flashy player, but he averaged 14.4 points, 5.8 assists, and 4.2 rebounds per 36 minutes with the Pistons last year. He could be a solid contributor in Washington, especially with the team lacking proven, healthy options at point guard. Scoop him up toward the end of the draft, especially if you end up taking a chance on Thomas.
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