Curran's Patriots-Dolphins Preview

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FOXBORO – Having negotiated Week 1 of Tom Brady’s suspension better than anyone expected, the Patriots are – in the public’s mind – playing with house money. Bill Belichick isn’t having that. It was clear from his tone Wednesday with the media that the message was that Miami kicked the Patriots’ collective ass in December and he wasn’t having that this week. Especially within the AFC East.
 
 
WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL
 
We’ll have Gronk uncertainty until kickoff, quite likely, and probably into the game. Proceeding as if he won’t be a big factor, you have to expect the Patriots to come out against Miami in a fashion similar to Arizona but maybe even less run-reliant. The Patriots had near-perfect run-pass balance by halftime and the end of the game. But with Ndamukong Suh needing to be dealt with and the rest of the Miami defensive line and linebackers profiting from Suh’s presence, why run into the strength. The Patriots tried that in Week 17 last season and it didn’t work. So look for four and five-wideout sets, lots of James White, three-step drops, curls, slants, crossers and digs. Miami lost its best corner, Brent Grimes, in the offseason and has replaced him with Byron Maxwell. The Dolphins allowed over 4,000 receiving yards last year and 31 touchdown passes. Safety Reshad Jones is very good but the Dolphins are also a little less potent in the pass rush department without Olivier Vernon (Giants) and Cameron Wake in the early stages coming off a torn Achilles. Xavien Howard plays opposite Maxwell and is a rookie.
 
WHEN THE DOLPHINS HAVE THE BALL
 
Kind of a meager opening to the season last week for the Fins in Seattle. But that happens to a lot of teams on the road in Washington state. The Dolphins tried 18 times to get the ball in the hands of newly-minted running back Arian Foster. He gained 38 on 13 carries and caught three of the five passes sent his way. Still a good, strong, versatile player despite his annual injuries, Foster is comparable in style to the back the Pats faced in Arizona last week, David Johnson. Aside from one run, the Patriots handled him. But New England may be without Donta Hightower this week after he missed practices with a knee issue. That will press Jonathan Freeny into more substantial reps. The Patriots love him. I sense he’s just OK. Also, it will be a big week for edge-setting since quarterback Ryan Tannehill can get to the perimeter and make valuable yards with his feet. The Patriots did a very good job of that last week. Jarvis Landry is Miami’s best receiver. Their secondary receiver, DeVante Parker, has been hobbled this week but had a big game in the season finale last year. The athleticism of Tannehill is something the Patriots have tried to counter with Donta Hightower playing on the edge but he’s doubtful for the game with a knee injury. Again, New England got excellent prep for any passing attack last week with the potent Cardinals. I’m not seeing the Patriots – if they tackle well – having many issues at all with the Miami offense.
 
THE KICKING GAME
 
Miami’s young kicker Andrew Franks had a 27-yard attempt blocked in last week’s 12-10 loss. Do the math. That one hurt. He’s in his second season with the Fins. Miami allowed 13.3 yards per return to punt returner Tyler Lockette last week so that wasn’t  a hot spot for them either. It will be interesting to see if the Patriots keep up with their directional, short kickoff strategy this week. The Pats were very good in the kicking game last week.
 
 
PATRIOTS MEDICAL REPORT
 
OUT: CB Eric Rowe (ankle). DOUBTFUL: LB Donta Hightower (knee). QUESTIONABLE: CB Malcolm Butler (ankle), T Marcus Cannon (knee), G Jonathan Cooper (foot), DE Trey Flowers (shoulder), TE Rob Gronkowski (hamstring), WR Chris Hogan (shoulder), G Shaq Mason (hand), LB Shea McClellin (shoulder), T Nate Solder (hamstring).
 
 
 
DOLPHINS MEDICAL REPORT
 
OUT: C Mike Pouncey (hip). QUESTIONABLE: TE Jordan Cameron (thigh), RB Arian Foster (hamstring), CB Xavien Howard (knee), LB Jelani Jenkins (knee), WR DeVante Parker (hamstring), LB Spencer Paysinger) biceps), DT Jordan Phillips (ankle), DE Mario Williams (concussion)
 
GAME WITHIN THE GAME  

With a week’s information to utilize, what will the Dolphins unveil defensively to try and unnerve Jimmy Garoppolo. Clearly, the Patriots offensive line is not in a position where it can hold up if Garoppolo is taking five and seven-step drops. The ball is coming out quickly and – for the most part – accurately on three-step drops whether there’s extra rushers sent or not. . Arizona didn’t get the Patriots on the ground quickly enough on those completions. Miami needs a better scheme to press Garoppolo into some adversity.
 
DOLPHINS GOTTA STOP
 
Julian Edelman. He roasted the Cardinals last week with seven catches on seven targets for 66 yards, many of those chain-moving receptions that allowed the Patriots to burn clock and keep the Arizona offense off the field.
 
PATRIOTS GOTTA STOP
 
Ndamukong Suh. He’s one of the NFL’s crown villains (though we had a heated discussion in the tiny Comcast office at Gillette this week when I alleged that Suh isn’t that bad and his benign dirty plays are blown out of proportion) and commands a double-team on most every play. Lots to handle for the Patriots young offensive line.
 
THAT SUMS IT UP PATRIOTS STYLE
 
"They've got plenty of film this year to look at with Jimmy [Garoppolo] playing. I think as an offensive coach, you try to focus more on what we need to do for ourselves and for our players to put together a plan that we feel comfortable executing regardless of what the defense does. It’s understanding that we’re going to get some things that we didn’t practice. We got some things the other day that we didn’t practice. That’s part of football. That’s a part of each week’s game, and you know you’re going to have to be able to adjust either on the field or on the sideline or half time or whenever it is that you see it.  I think for us to try to worry about how somebody may or may not play us or try to defend us or try to affect what we’re doing, it’s really a hard thing to narrow down. So we’re going to focus on the things that we can control, get ourselves ready to go, try to have a good plan, have a good week of practice, let them go out there and play fast, and if we have to adjust, we have to adjust. That usually happens early in the season, especially if you have limited information to go off of." - Josh McDaniels, Patriots offensive coordinator. 
 
 
THAT SUMS IT UP DOLPHINS STYLE
 
“This is the first time I’ve gone up there in September. The sun checks out on November 1st and never comes back. I’ve been up (there) in December and January mostly, so I’m looking forward to hopefully (seeing) the sun out there. A) They are a good football team. B) It’s hard to win any game on the road, and they’re really good. All of a sudden you go up there and a lot of times it’s the elements. They’re just a good team. They’re hard to beat. It’s hard to beat any team on the road and especially one of the upper-echelon teams. I haven’t felt there has been anything mystical or anything. If you go up there and you take care of business, you have a chance and the ball moves. If you don’t, it doesn’t. Nothing special.” – Clyde Christensen, Dolphins offensive coordinator.
 
 VEGAS SAYS

Patriots favored by 6 1/2.
 
THE WINNER IS...
 
Patriots 19, Dolphins 16

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