It's time to separate the survivor pool contenders from the pretenders.
Week 3 featured several predictable results, from the Cincinnati Bengals handling the New York Jets to the Philadelphia Eagles staying hot against the inconsistent Washington Commanders. But Week 4 is a different animal.
Of this week's 15 non-Thursday matchups, 10 have a point spread of three points or fewer, and only the Green Bay Packers are favored by more than a touchdown. That means there aren't many "slam dunk" picks this week, especially if you've used your previous picks on quality teams.
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So, if you want to survive and advance this week, you'll need to do your research. And that's where we come in. Here are our three safest bets to earn a Week 4 victory, as well two "under-the-radar" picks and two games to avoid completely.
(All betting lines from PointsBet Sportsbook).
NFL
Safe bets
Green Bay Packers (2-1) vs. New England Patriots (1-2)
Line: Packers -9.5
If you still have the Packers at your disposal, now is the time to use them. Green Bay's defense just held Tom Brady's Tampa Bay Buccaneers to 12 points and will face either a career backup quarterback who hasn't won a game since 2016 (Brian Hoyer) or a severely-limited Mac Jones one week removed from a high ankle sprain. The only question here is if the Patriots cover.
Dallas Cowboys (2-1) vs. Washington Commanders (1-2)
Line: Cowboys -3
Cooper Rush may lose a start eventually -- but not this week. The Commanders' sieve of an offensive line is tied for the most sacks allowed (15), while Dallas' defense has a league-leading 13 sacks through three games. The Cowboys should pressure Carson Wentz early and often while relying on Rush and the one-two punch of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard to salt this game away.
Buffalo Bills (2-1) vs. Baltimore Ravens (2-1)
Line: Bills -3
The Ravens just allowed nearly 450 yards of total offense to Matt Patricia's Patriots, so this is a dream matchup for Josh Allen and Co. Even if the Bills struggle to contain Lamar Jackson, their defense isn't nearly as bad as Baltimore's. We can't see a team as good as Buffalo dropping two straight, even on the road.
Under-the-radar picks
Detroit Lions (1-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks (1-2)
Line: Lions -4
The Lions should be 2-1 after blowing a 14-point fourth-quarter lead to the Minnesota Vikings last week. The Seahawks rank 28th in the NFL in total offense and 25th in yards allowed per game. We understand why you'd have serious reservations about backing Detroit, but the home team should find a way to win against one of the worst clubs in the NFL.
Las Vegas Raiders (0-3) vs. Denver Broncos (1-2)
Line: Raiders -2.5
Desperation often leads to results, and Josh McDaniels desperately needs a win this Sunday. The Raiders have lost their three games by a combined 13 points, and it's been their defense that has let them down the most. Denver owns the NFL's second-worst offense under Russell Wilson, so we like Las Vegas' chances to outscore its AFC West rival to pick up McDaniels' first victory.
It's A Trap!
Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1)
Line: Eagles -6.5
The Eagles hype train is in full swing, but the three teams they've beaten (Detroit, Minnesota and Washington) have four wins combined. We're certainly not ready to declare the Jaguars Super Bowl contenders, but their seventh-ranked offense is hard to ignore. Philly seems primed for a letdown game at some point, and this could be it.
Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) at Houston Texans
Line: Chargers -5
The Chargers have been absolutely decimated by injury, with offensive tackle Rashawn Slater and star pass rusher Joey Bosa both out indefinitely and quarterback Justin Herbert nursing fractured ribs. The Texans have kept all of their games within one score, so we don't trust Los Angeles on the road after watching Brandon Staley's club lose to Jacksonville by 28.