Nobody likes a pessimist. But trust us: This advice is for your own good.

Just as finding a sleeper in the later rounds can separate you from your fantasy football competitors, spending premium draft capital on a player who flops can ruin your team. (Just ask anyone who drafted Antonio Brown in the first round last season.)

Identifying bust candidates is tricky business, though. As you'll see, many of the following players are talented fantasy options who deserve roster spots. But all of them come with red flags that could signal a serious drop-off in production in 2020, meaning they probably should be taken later than their average draft position.

So, if you're on the clock and see one of these players on the board, you may want to explore other options.

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Projected round: 4-5
2019 stats: 3,582 yards, 26 TDs, 12 INTs (seven rushing TDs)

Watson was the fifth-best quarterback in fantasy last season. But guess where over 33 percent of his completions, passing yards and passing TDs went in 2019? To DeAndre Hopkins, whom the Texans replaced with the oft-injured Brandin Cooks.

The 24-year-old is entering his prime and still is an elite QB. Hopkins' departure can't be overlooked, though, which is why we'd bump Watson out of the top five QB circle and into Round 6 instead of 4 or 5.

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Projected round: 9-10
2019 stats: 3,603 yards, 26 TDs, six INTs

Cousins lost an elite weapon in Stefon Diggs (more on him later), but the QB and wide receiver reportedly didn't get along well, anyway.

What's more concerning is the depature of Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski, whose replacement, Gary Kubiak, may favor a more run-heavy attack led by workhorse Dalvin Cook. Cousins has been a late-round steal with sneaky-good numbers in years past, but we'd steer clear in 2020.

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Projected round: 2-3
2019 stats: 245 carries, 789 rushing yards, three rushing TDs; 66 receptions, 461 receiving yards, one receiving TD

Know what's not a good sign? When your head coach says he wants to give you fewer touches. Adam Gase said recently he hopes to "lessen the load" on Bell in 2020, and that's after the running back saw his fewest touches in a non-injury shortened season since his rookie year.

Bell is a solid RB2 who shouldn't fall past the middle rounds. But the days of treating the former Steeler like an RB1 are over.

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Projected round: 2-3
2019 stats: 162 carries, 612 rushing yards, eight rushing TDs; 42 receptions, 296 receiving yards, one receiving TD

Gordon is a classic "boom or bust" candidate for 2020. A change in scenery could help the ex-Charger thrive in an offense that just drafted two talented wide receivers ...

... Or Gordon and backup Phillip Lindsay (who initially wasn't pleased by Gordon's addition) could fall into a messy timeshare that may not get much use if the Broncos fall behind early in games. We're leaning toward the latter.

Gordon is a fine RB2, but don't get caught up in the team swap hype.

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Projected round: 7-8
2019 stats: 223 carries, 857 rushing yards, 12 rushing TDs; 31 receptions, 207 receiving yards, two receiving TDs

Again, we understand the temptation here. Gurley should be the clear No. 1 back in Atlanta and is two years removed from being a first-team All-Pro.

The major red flag is Gurley's health, though, and apparently even his offensive coordinator doesn't know if the running back will be 100 percent. Do you really want to take a chance on an RB2 with an unknown injury status coming off his worst NFL season?

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Projected round: Late second
2019 stats: 67 receptions, 1,157 receiving yards, eight TDs

We know what you're thinking: How could Evans be worse with Tom Brady throwing passes to him? Well ...

Evans was the most trusted target for a QB (Jameis Winston) who tied for the most pass attempts in the NFL last season. Now, he's competing with Chris Godwin, Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard to be trusted target for a new QB (Brady) who brought his own guy with him in tight end Rob Gronkowski.

At the very least, expect Gronkowski to steal some of Evans' coveted red-zone targets.

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Projected round: 7-8
2019 stats: 100 receptions, 1,117 receiving yards, six TDs

Edelman has caught at least 74 passes in five of the last six seasons. He's still the Patriots' No. 1 wideout. It's not like his numbers will fall off a cliff with Jarrett Stidham (or Brian Hoyer?) under center.

But the reality is that New England likely will pass less in the post-Brady era, favoring a more conservative, run-based attack. That means fewer targets for a 34-year-old receiver with an injury history entering his 11th NFL season. Buyer beware -- especially if you're not in a full-PPR league.

UPDATE (June 30): Upgrading from Stidham to Cam Newton certainly helps Edelman's cause. Newton isn't exactly a miracle worker for wideouts, though: His leading wide receiver during the 2018 season was D.J. Moore, who caught just 55 passes. Buyer continue to beware.

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Projected round: 5-6
2019 stats: 63 receptions, 1,130 receiving yards, six TDs

The Bills have produced just two 1,000-yard receivers in the last five seasons (Sammy Watkins and John Brown) and ranked 24th in the NFL in passing attempts last season.

They traded for Diggs to spark that passing game, obviously, but we're still skeptical of a wideout consistently producing in Buffalo, which has a run-happy quarterback in Josh Allen and a talented young running back in Devin Singletary. We'd save Diggs for round six or later.

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Projected round: 5-6
2019 stats: 75 receptions, 787 receiving yards, six TDs

Sorry, but there's no way Hooper is seeing 97 targets (his 2019 total with Atlanta) in a Browns offense that includes target hoarders Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Hooper even has competition at his own position in fourth-year tight end David Njoku.

Hooper was the sixth-best tight end in fantasy last season, but we're not taking him any earlier than No. 10 unless Cleveland makes additional moves.

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Projected round: 8-9
2019 stats: 47 receptions, 682 receiving yards, three TDs

Quick disclaimer: Gronkowski is the best tight end in NFL history and is still worth drafting. But just be aware that you're not getting the "old" Gronk.

Even during the Patriots' Super Bowl-winning season in 2018, Gronkowski put up modest numbers (by his standards) while battling injuries. And while he has Brady's favor in Tampa Bay's crowded room of offensive weapons, he just turned 31 and is coming off a year of doing a lot of other things besides football.

Don't let the name fool you: Gronk isn't a top-10 fantasy tight end right now.

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