Perry: QBs in NFL Draft for Patriots to consider outside of the first round
We've heard plenty about the top quarterbacks in the 2021 NFL Draft. But what if guys like Justin Fields, Mac Jones and Trey Lance aren't around for the Patriots at No. 15?Our Phil Perry breaks down the "best of the rest" in the QB crop to identify potential Day 2 or 3 diamonds in the rough for New England.
In a lengthy conference call on Wednesday, Robert Kraft gave a frank assessment of where his team stands at the moment and told reporters that "one way or another, we have to get that position solidified."
That position, of course, is quarterback.
Unfortunately for Kraft's club, there's no clear path to a long-term solution there. Cam Newton is on a one-year contract that pays him as a backup. The team's No. 3 to start last season, Jarrett Stidham, still has a lot to prove before he's entrusted with the team's most important on-the-field gig.
And while Kraft acknowledged "we still have the draft," there is no certainty that Bill Belichick will be able to find The Next Guy in April's 2021 NFL Draft, as the top five players at the position could be gone within the first 10 picks.
But even if they strike out on the first-round passers they love, that doesn't mean the Patriots can't inject some small level of long-term optimism into that position group on draft weekend. They just might have to do it on Day 2 or 3.
In the last 10 NFL drafts, six quarterbacks taken outside the first round have made a Pro Bowl: Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor, Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, Derek Carr and Dak Prescott.
See? Some (very) small level of optimism.
But that's not a winning approach. For every Prescott there are a dozen Ryan Malletts. For every Wilson, there are more than a handful of Kevin O'Connells. For every Tom Brady ... you get the idea. Over the course of the last decade, 42 of the 86 quarterbacks drafted outside the first round have not made a start.
That means, over the last 10 years, quarterbacks taken outside the first round were seven times more likely to never start than they were to make a Pro Bowl. And even that isn't a great indication of the caliber of quarterback usually found outside the first round.
Players like Luke Falk, Ben DiNucci, Zach Mettenberger, Ryan Lindley and Greg McElroy -- far from long-term solutions for their teams -- ended up getting starts in the NFL.
For our purposes, though, it is worth digging into some Day 2 or 3 options since the Patriots aren't necessarily in control of their own destiny when it comes to drafting a quarterback on Day 1. Here are some with the most promise.
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Height, weight: 6-foot-5, 236 pounds
Why he might make it in the NFL: Trask still may have his best football ahead of him. Not a bad situation to be in for a guy who completed 68.7 percent of his passes last season, with 43 touchdowns compared to just eight picks with 9.8 yards per attempt.
He has just two years as a starter under his belt -- after a high school career spent mostly as a backup (64 career passes) -- and showed real improvement from 2019 to 2020. That's encouraging. So too is his ability to stand tall in the pocket and push the ball deep. According to Pro Football Focus, he was fourth in the country in deep passing yards with 1,269.
Why he probably won't: Trask is an old-school pocket passer who appears to be even less mobile than his oft-criticized-for-his-athleticism SEC counterpart Mac Jones. While Trask often shows courage behind center, he's also a bit of a sitting duck at times because A) he is hesitant with his decision-making at times and B) he offers so little in terms of off-script playmaking ability.
Despite his gaudy numbers, the 23-year-old's accuracy in the short area of the field suffered at times. He was 67.4 percent accurate on throws shorter than 10 yards, per PFF, ranking him 50th in the nation. In a loss to Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl, he completed just 57 percent of his throws for 158 yards, no touchdowns and three picks.
Why he could be a fit for the Patriots: We'll dig a little deeper here when we get into our Prototypical Patriots series on QBs, but Trask checks a lot of boxes for New England. He has plenty of size, including 10-inch hands that should play well in the conditions in Foxboro. He had success in a Power 5 conference. He spent four years in college; the Patriots under Bill Belichick have never drafted a quarterback who didn't. His statistical production is great across the board. And he doesn't panic in the face of pressure.
If the Patriots want a classic pocket passer with some promise on Day 2, Trask could be their guy.
Height, weight: 6-foot-3, 211 pounds
Why he might make it in the NFL: Mond's mechanical setup in the pocket and eye-opening athleticism for his position (4.59-second 40-yard dash at his pro day this week) reminds evaluators a bit of Colin Kaepernick. If that's the kind of player Mond becomes, he'd be more than worthy of a Day 2 choice.
Arguably the top quarterback at this year's Senior Bowl practices and the MVP of the game down in Mobile, Ala., Mond has been a "riser" during the pre-draft process despite the four-year starter having plenty of tape out there for evaluators to dig into. He's effective as an on-the-move thrower, but he also has pro-style experience in Jimbo Fisher's offense that asked him to often pull the trigger on intermediate throws over the middle.
Like Trask, he became more efficient in 2020 compared to 2019, seeing his touchdown-to-interception ratio jump from 20-to-9 to 19-to-3 and his yards per attempt go from 6.9 to 7.7.
Why he probably won't: Mond simply never put together a consistent string of performances to get him into the conversation as one of the top passers in the class. Of course, he didn't have the weaponry that others like Trask or Jones so that will have to factor into team evaluations.
According to NFL.com's Lance Zierlein, Mond completed just 35 percent of his passes outside the numbers and just 26 percent of deep throws outside the numbers. There are times when Mond seems so focused on his mechanics that it might actually impact the oomph he can get on the football. Would he not be better off cutting it loose a little more often.
Why he could be a fit for the Patriots: Size. SEC. Four years in college. Better than 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio (71-to-27). His completion percentage (59%) and his yards per attempt (7.1) are below the marks the Patriots usually want (60 percent or more, 7.5 yards per attempt), but Belichick has taken Fisher players in the past and perhaps a strong review would go a long way in making the Patriots comfortable with expending a Day 2 selection.
Height, weight: 6-foot-4, 217 pounds
Why he might make it in the NFL: Mills has the look of the once-upon-a-time NFL prototype. A former five-star recruit, he was actually the top-rated passer in the country coming out of high school in 2017. He has the arm to zip the football from the pocket just about wherever he needs to, and he's accurate, checking in with an adjusted completion percentage last season of 78.8, ranking him ninth in the country.
Why he probably won't: With only 491 drop-backs in his career at Stanford -- he only took over in 2019 after KJ Costello went down with an injury -- there's still plenty of unknown about Mills' game. He also falls into the category of pocket passers who aren't exactly to solve the problems of his receiving corps or offensive line by bailing out and creating yards with his legs.
Though he ran an impressive 6.95-second three-cone time, he's going to have to be the kind of quarterback who gets rid of the football quickly in the face of pressure, and because he doesn't have a ton of experience, diagnosing pressure at the next level could prove a challenge. Mills also has a history of leg issues that may make him a long-term injury risk.
Why he might be a fit for the Patriots: Mills was a team captain. He's big enough. His arm is strong enough. He spent four years in a program the Patriots respect. And in his brief time behind center, he showed enough in the way of toughness to make him worthy of consideration on Day 2.
Height, weight: 6-foot-2, 235 pounds
Why he might make it in the NFL: Traits for days. In a league where tools in young quarterbacks seem to be more important than ever, Newman is incredibly intriguing. He has the size and athleticism to be a major factor in any team's running game, and he's unafraid of contact.
His arm is also strong enough to threaten defenses vertically -- something he did time and time again while at Wake Forest -- as well as horizontally if asked to rip throws to the boundary. On throws of 20 yards or more down the field in 2019, he completed 28 of 63 attempts for 10 touchdowns and a quarterback rating of 110.9, according to PFF.
Why he probably won't: Newman's offense at Wake Forest probably won't do him any favors in terms of preparedness at the next level. He also opted out of the 2020 season after transferring to Georgia. And the next time NFL clubs saw him on the field, at the Senior Bowl, he struggled. He took the longest time to throw in practices (3.2 seconds on average) and had the second-highest number of charted inaccurate passes (13), per PFF.
Why he might be a fit for the Patriots: His Senior Bowl showing, and the fact that teams never got to see him play in the SEC after transferring, may mean that Newman lasts into Day 3. With the skill set he has, even if the odds of him hitting are low, he's be worth a late-round flier.
In terms of his size, his career completion percentage (60.5), his career yards per attempt (7.8) and his touchdown-to-interception ratio (35 touchdowns, 16 picks), he checks plenty of boxes for what the Patriots have drafted in the past. And if they'd like a player whose game would be a good fit for someone learning behind Cam Newton, Newman would make sense.
