{"numbering":"no_numbering","slides":[{"title":"Curran: The Patriots will run more than 525 times this year","image":"https://www.nbcsports.com/sites/rsnunited/files/slide/image/Michel_S_USATSI_11415213.jpg","credit":"USA TODAY Sports photo","published":1599675969,"caption":"

You gotta play to your strengths. And ground-and-pound looks like the main strength of the 2020 Patriots offense.

Only three times since Bill Belichick’s been in charge have the Patriots been over 500 rushes in the regular season (2004, 2008, 2012). The most they ran it was in ’04 with Corey Dillon leading the way (524). Last year, they ran it 447 times.

But this year, they start the season with a healthier offensive line, a healthy fullback, a houseful of diverse backs and a quarterback who can tuck it too. Additionally? They have a collection of pass-catching question marks. They were 25th in YPC last year (3.81). They’ll be better this year. Run, run, run, run away.

"},{"title":"Perry: Cam will have a better completion percentage than Brady","image":"https://www.nbcsports.com/sites/rsnunited/files/article/hero/Brady_T_Newton_C_USATSI_14736059_AP_20230631255576.jpg","credit":"USA TODAY Sports photo / AP Photo","published":1599676649,"caption":"

This is one of those bold predictions that sounds bolder than it really is. The last time we saw Cam Newton not playing on a broken foot, he played in a Norv Turner system that encouraged him to work the short-to-intermediate area of the field. That was 2018, when he turned in a 67.9 completion percentage. That was his first year with Turner, with Christian McCaffrey, Greg Olsen (before injury) and a young high-pointing, burly 200-plus-pound, strong-after-the-catch, first-round rookie receiver named D.J. Moore at his disposal.

Newton will be encouraged to do the same with capable pass-catching backs, tight ends the Patriots have invested in (we'll get to that in a bit) and a high-pointing, 200-plus-pound, strong-after-the-catch second-year, first-round wideout named N'Keal Harry. He'll also have receptions machine Julian Edelman. Newton might not hit 68 percent, but it's not out of the question that in an offense that encourages a take-what-they-give-you mindset, he could be around 65 percent by season's end.

Brady, meanwhile, saw his completion percentage drop five full points last year to 60.8. That'll improve with better personnel in Tampa Bay, but he's in a "no risk it, no biscuit" offense where he'll be encouraged to push the ball down the field and play a very different style than the one he liked in New England. The two best veteran quarterbacks Arians has had have been Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger. In their first seasons with Arians, they posted 63.3 and 65.3 completion percentages, respectively.

It's close. But if Newton can recapture his 2018 form and if Brady has any growing pains taking on a new offense after living in another for two decades, it's within the realm of possibility.

"},{"title":"Curran: Dalton Keene > Devin Asiasi","image":"https://www.nbcsports.com/sites/rsnunited/files/slide/image/Keene_D_GettyImages_1270073532.jpg","credit":"Getty Images","published":1599676652,"caption":"

The Patriots took two tight ends in the third round in April but Asiasi and Keene are similar in positional name alone.

Asiasi is a more conventional tight end, while Keene’s more of a Swiss Army Knife. And it’s for that reason that Keene will be the player the Patriots get more out of as a rookie. Not that there’s anything wrong with Asiasi. I think he’ll be a steady factor.

But even though it may take a few weeks for Keene to carve a role on the active roster, once he does, he’ll be a little mix of fullback/tight end/slot guy that can move all around and wind up in winning matchups. And he’ll be the one defenses are starting to get concerned about as the year goes on. Mark it down!!

"},{"title":"Perry: Devin Asiasi will have more yards receiving than Rob Gronkowski did as a rookie","image":"https://www.nbcsports.com/sites/rsnunited/files/slide/image/Asiasi_D_AP.jpg","credit":"AP Photo","published":1599676655,"caption":"

Did you know that over the last 17 seasons, only two tight ends have cracked 600 yards receiving as rookies? Evan Engram of the Giants and John Carlson of the Seahawks. That's it. That's the list.

Gronkowski checked in with 546 yards in 2010, when he finished strong after a rocky start. I think the same will happen with Asiasi, who is the most talented tight end on the Patriots roster. There will be growing pains, no doubt. But they'll be curbed a bit by the fact that Asiasi played in a pro-style offense at UCLA under Chip Kelly. Even with a shortened offseason, he'll earn a full-time role quickly. That means opportunity. And opportunity in an offense devoid of clear-cut passing-game answers after Julian Edelman means . . . yards.

Will Asiasi hit that 600 number? Maybe not. But just think about the receiving-yardage pie this year. If Newton approaches the oh-so-realistic number of 3,500 yards this season, how does that get broken up? Edelman won't make up 1,000 of it, but he might get to 800. Put James White down for another 600. Even if Harry blows up with an 800-yard season, that still leaves about 1,300 yards to be split between Asiasi, Dalton Keene, Rex Burkhead, Damien Harris, Jakobi Meyers, Gunner Olszewski and anyone else imported this season.

Ultimately, this is about believing in Asiasi's physical skill set, Newton's health, and the dearth of options outside of Edelman. Mark Asiasi down for 550 yards or more this season.

"},{"title":"Curran: The 2019 TD-INT ratio will be flipped in 2020","image":"https://www.nbcsports.com/sites/rsnunited/files/article/hero/Gilmore_S_AP_20230580164513.jpg","credit":"AP Photo","published":1599676658,"caption":"

The final pass-defense numbers for the Patriots last year were staggering. A 56.5 completion percentage allowed, just 2,886 yards passing given up, an opposing QB rating of 62.8 with 13 TD passes allowed and 25 picks. Not gonna happen that way this year.

With their pass-rush depleted by the losses of Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins, a much harder slate of quarterbacks on the docket, a fleet of inexperienced linebackers, the opt-out of Patrick Chung and departure of Duron Harmon, this is a very different defense. And you can expect the numbers to be closer to 25 TDs and 13 picks in 2020.

"},{"title":"Perry: Sony Michel will cede the starting running back role to Damien Harris","image":"https://www.nbcsports.com/sites/rsnunited/files/slide/image/Harris_Damien_Getty_1170207003.jpg","credit":"Getty Images","published":1599676661,"caption":"

We've been over the statistical shortcomings of Michel's short career time and again. He's not a factor in the passing game. His performance in short-yardage has been unpredictable. While he'll have opportunities early in the year with Harris out injured (he's on IR for a minimum of three weeks), and while he'll be working behind an improved offensive line, Harris simply looked like a better fit for the Patriots offense during training camp this summer. He's a representative receiver.

If Josh McDaniels wants to run some Shanahan-style, wide-zone runs, Harris appeared to run with more decisiveness in summer practices than we're used to seeing from Michel. Whichever back is best suited to carry out a zone-running scheme would also seem to have an advantage. Perhaps three weeks of a head start is all Michel will need to have a vice-grip on the job.

But this prediction is about trusting what we saw in Harris' skill set before the season -- and trusting that his coaches have seen it the same way.

"},{"title":"Curran: Deatrich Wise, double-digit sack guy","image":"https://www.nbcsports.com/sites/rsnunited/files/slide/image/Wise_Deatrich_AP_20240608490426.jpg","credit":"AP Photo","published":1599676664,"caption":"

Do you even unnnnnnddddderrrrrrsssstannnnddddd how much pass rush from 2019 is not here right now?

Jamie Collins, Kyle Van Noy and Dont'a Hightower combined for 18.5 sacks. The other defenders returning who recorded sacks – Chase Winovich, John Simon, Adam Butler, Lawrence Guy, and Wise – combined for 20.5. The pass-rush deficit is going to have to be made up somewhere and I’m putting my dough on Deatrich.

He really had a nice camp during the practices we were able to watch. He looks a little thinner, a little faster. And at 6-foot-5, 275 with ridiculously long arms, the fourth-year defensive end is ready to make a breakthrough.

"},{"title":"Perry: The Patriots defense will fall out of the top 10 (points allowed) for the first time since 2011","image":"https://www.nbcsports.com/sites/rsnunited/files/article/hero/Belichick_Bill_Getty_1269914448_1.jpg","credit":"","published":1599676668,"caption":"

This one is based first on the Patriots schedule. After dominating a slate of less-than intimidating opponents in 2019, the Patriots will see the No. 1 (Baltimore), No. 2 (Kansas City), No. 3 (Seattle), No. 7 (Las Vegas), No. 8 (San Francisco) and No. 9 (LA Chargers) passing offenses, according to Football Outsiders' 2019 DVOA metric.

They'll also square up with challenging passing offenses from Houston, Arizona and LA (the Rams). Defense is also something that is very difficult to predict year over year. Smarter people than I can explain that to you here at Five Thirty Eight. Expecting a performance like last season's to repeat itself seems unlikely.

"},{"title":"Curran: Sacks will be Cam’s Achilles","image":"https://www.nbcsports.com/sites/rsnunited/files/article/hero/Newton_Cam_AP_20240667416730.jpg","credit":"AP Photo","published":1599676671,"caption":"

Tom Brady’s career sack percentage (times dropped while trying to pass) was 4.8. Since he was sacked on 9 percent of his attempts in 2001, the only time it was over 5.9 was 2013 (6.0). Cam Newton’s career sack percentage is 6.8. He’s been under 6.0 only once (2018, 5.8).

When Newton was the league MVP his actual net yards per attempt (yards per attempt minus yards lost in sacks) was 7.20. Other than that since 2013, the numbers were 5.69, 5.45, 5.46, 5.29 and 6.15 (he only played 2 games last year and it was 5.09 but … ya know …). Brady’s were 6.12, 6.59, 6.87, 7.76, 7.10, 7.12 and 6.05.

There are places Newton gets an offense yards that Brady does not. But the cost of a mobile quarterback is sacks. And it’s going to be jarring to see the difference this year.

"},{"title":"Perry: N'Keal Harry will finish with more carries than James White","image":"https://www.nbcsports.com/sites/rsnunited/files/article/hero/Harry_N%27Keal_AP_20238537363464.jpg","credit":"AP Photo","published":1599676676,"caption":"

This could end up being the one that looks more insane than bold by the end of the year. But hear me out.

There's more depth in the New England backfield than there was a season ago when White rushed 67 times. With Michel, Harris, Burkhead and rookie J.J. Taylor (who the team thought enough of to get onto the active roster for Week 1) around to split carries, that could leave White to focus on the role in which he's excelled since 2015 as a pass-catching back. That could accomplish two goals for the Patriots simultaneously: No. 1 it'd preserve one of their most dependable offensive pieces, now 28 years old; No. 2 it'd allow the Patriots to focus in on the kind of offense they apparently want to have.

This looks like it has the makings of a heavy-personnel-package attack. Fullback Jakob Johnson is going to have a role. They'll roll with two tight ends. They're going to try to beat up opposing defenses. On third down? When it's an obvious passing situation? Those snaps will go to White. Otherwise, he could end up with a number of carries that falls somewhere between his 2015 (22) and 2016 (39) totals.

That leads us to Harry. His skill set, I've argued in the past, would make a lot of sense as a receiver-running back hybrid. The Patriots have been willing to use pass-catchers in the backfield in the past -- aligned there and on jet-sweep types of runs -- and they should do the same to max out Harry's physical tools. Ty Montgomery had 32 carries last year in that type of role. That's two carries per game. I think that's where Harry should be at a minimum in order to squeeze as much as there is to squeeze out of the 2019 first-rounder. If that's the case, he could end up barely edging White in terms of rush attempts this season.

"},{"title":"OVERALL PREDICTIONS","image":"https://www.nbcsports.com/sites/rsnunited/files/series/bg/NFLFootball_USATSI_11199478.png","credit":"","published":1599683943,"caption":"

Patriots Record

Tom E. Curran: 8-8 (2nd in AFC East)

Phil Perry: 9-7 (1st in AFC East)

Will Patriots make playoffs?

Tom E. Curran: No

Phil Perry: Yes, losing in the Divisional Round

Conference Championship Games

Tom E. Curran: Steelers over Chiefs, Bucs over 49ers

Phil Perry: Chiefs over Ravens, Saints over Seahawks

Super Bowl Prediction

Tom E. Curran: Buccaneers over Steelers

Phil Perry: Saints over Chiefs

"}]}

Bold predictions for the Patriots' 2020 season