Phil Perry

Perry: Gonzalez pick is a sign of Belichick's evolving demands at CB

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Anyone paying attention to the media-based conversation around this year's draft class would've noticed that Oregon corner Christian Gonzalez looked like a no-doubt top-10 talent.

The 33rd Team (relying on input from former NFL general managers), NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah (whose yearly hit rate is eye-popping) and Sports Info Solutions (an analytics site that utilizes both traditional scouting methods and advanced metrics to rank players) all deemed Gonzalez as worthy of being one of the first few non-quarterbacks off the board.

He played a premium position, and he possessed rare physical gifts to allow him to match up -- and potentially erase -- opposing No. 1 receivers on a regular basis. Made sense.

Next Pats: Drafting Christian Gonzalez is a sign that Bill Belichick is evolving | Listen & Subscribe | Watch on YouTube

Yet the first 10 picks came and went last Thursday and Gonzalez was still waiting to hear his name called. I texted NFL executives and defensive coaches in the league to try to discern why. 

Would he be an option for the Patriots at No. 14 overall, or would they also take a pass as well? What led to his slide?

Physicality in question

"Very surprised," said one pro scouting director.

"I'm not really sure why," said a college scouting director.

But there were questions in other corners of the league about his makeup, his confidence level and his on-field tenacity.

"Athletic ability off the charts," said one NFC defensive coach. "Biggest issue is tackling and just overall being physical."

That married up with what I'd been told by an AFC defensive coach weeks earlier when asking about Illinois corner Devon Witherspoon, taken by the Seahawks at No. 5 overall, and whether or not his size (5-foot-11, 184 pounds) would prevent him from being a high first-rounder.

"Watch how he plays and watch how Gonzalez plays," I was told. "Gonzalez is 6-2, 200 (pounds), but Witherspoon is the one who plays like he's 6-2, 200."

When I asked the NFC assistant if Gonzalez's tackling "issue" was skill-related or willingness-related, the reply was, "Not willing."

That doesn't sound like the kind of corner Bill Belichick has typically sought in the draft. Back in the 1990s, when he led the Browns, the first thing Belichick listed on his scouting wish list at corner? "Tackle and force guys."

"Cannot put guys on the field who cannot tackle," he added.

Later in the same set of scouting notes: "Five potential problems (at cornerback): 1. Tackling."

Even when considering a more modern perspective of what Belichick wants from his corners, Patriots safety Devin McCourty told Next Pats that "the aggressiveness to be willing to tackle" is a must.

More modern approach?

But the Gonzalez selection seems like a sign that Belichick has been willing to bend in that regard. Belichick also drafted spindly Arizona State corner Jack Jones in the fourth round last year, who ended up playing a key role in the Patriots defense... but who also missed 18.9 percent of his tackle attempts as a rookie. That was a bottom-12 figure in the league among corners with at least 400 snaps last year, per Pro Football Focus.

Not what you're looking for, as Belichick might say. But getting guys on the ground also isn't necessarily the most important facet of that position in 2023, either.

McCourty joined Quick Slants this week to explain the push-pull to being aggressive enough while still accomplishing the most important goal at that position: limiting playmakers through the air.

"No one's going to go from not tackling, if that's what we're talking about, to tackling in the NFL," McCourty said. "That's not happening. But I'll say this: For that position, if you can stand in front of a guy, mirror him and shut a guy down and play at a high level, I need you to tackle when we get into the playoffs. When we get into the playoffs, I need whatever you got in the tank.

"That's what I loved about (Stephon) Gilmore. Gilmore will tackle you, but there might be some plays where Gilmore will miss a tackle. We get in the playoffs? Gilly is coming down full speed, he's lighting people up, he's playing hard. 

"To me, that's what it's about. If [Gonzalez] can go out there and play that style of football: man to man, covering guys, what they do now -- seat-belt! -- put the seat belt on them? I'd love to see it."

Crunching the numbers

Belichick is famous for telling his scouts to talk about players in such a way that they're describing what a prospect is capable of -- not the other way around. 

"Tell me what the guy can do," the saying goes, "don't tell me what he can't do."

The Patriots clearly feel as though Gonzalez can cover. That's what the tape suggests. And most metrics available to us would tell us that Gonzalez has the quantifiable physical ability to smother opposing targets, too. 

At Mockdraftable.com, there is a massive database of combine participants (and pro day performers for certain players not invited to the combine) stretching all the way back to 2000. They calculate height, weight, arm length, hand size and a variety of athletic testing results to spit out a player's physical profile. That player’s top-10 physical comps -- players from combines past -- are then listed alongside the measurements collected, from most similar on down. 

Among Gonzalez's top comparisons were the two starting corners for the Super Bowl-winning Bucs in 2020 -- Sean Murphy-Bunting (now of the Titans) and Jamel Dean -- and 2021 first-round pick Jaycee Horn.

To investigate further how Gonzalez's athleticism might play at the next level, we can play around with Kent Platte's Relative Athletic Scores. Platte (@MathBomb on Twitter) takes the same measurables used by Mockdraftable.com and then turns those into a “score,” from 0 to 10, to paint a picture of a prospect's athleticism relative to others at his position over the years. 

Gonzalez posted a whopping RAS of 9.95 out of 10.0 thanks to his unusual length (32-inch arms, 9.5-inch hands), excellent speed (4.38-second 40) and ridiculous jumping ability. His 41.5-inch vertical and 133-inch broad jump placed him in the 96th and 95th percentile, respectively, at his position for those tests.

With his RAS in hand, we tried to figure out what it might tell us about his odds for success as a pro. We searched Platte’s records from the last 20 drafts and sought out defensive backs taken in the first round with scores of 9.7 or better to see how they turned out as pros.

Why first-rounders only? Safe to assume anyone taken within the first 32 picks of a draft has some combination of other factors beyond sheer athleticism — strong tape, strong interviews, strong leadership qualities, strong football IQ — that would allow them to be drafted early. Pure track athletes don't typically go in the first round.

We found 15 corners taken in the first round who had Relative Athletic Scores of 9.7 or better from 2002-2022. Of those 15, 12 (80 percent) made at least one Pro Bowl. Of those 15, nine (60 percent) were named either first or second-team All-Pro at least once. The group includes a former Defensive Player of the Year (Gilmore), a player with an argument as the greatest corner of his generation (Darrelle Revis) and a pair of three-time First-Team All-Pro selections (Patrick Peterson, Jalen Ramsey). 

Of the First-Round Freaky 15, let's call them, only one hasn't had what PFF would deem a full season as a quality starter (grade of 70.0 or better): CJ Henderson. 

Not bad company for Gonzalez to join.

Bottom Line

He may not be a "tackle and force" stalwart as a pro, but the reality is that's not what the Patriots ask their corners to be anymore. Not on a regular basis, at least. The Patriots have modernized their approach in that regard.

It's worth noting, though, that the Patriots may have passed on Gonzalez at No. 14 due in part to how the physical aspect of his game impacted his draft grade. 

By trading down to No. 17 overall, Belichick and director of player personnel Matt Groh had to be comfortable losing Gonzalez to another team. (They were eying Gonzalez as well as other players at positions other than corner at No. 14, including the edge defender they eventually took in the second round: Georgia Tech's Keion White.)

It's my understanding the team was stunned that Gonzalez remained on the board three picks later -- especially with the Commanders taking Mississippi State corner Emmanuel Forbes at No. 16 overall -- and they felt confident enough in his coverage abilities to grab him there.

He may not be Belichick's old-school ideal at the position. But whether or not Gonzalez can -- as McCourty put it -- strap a seat belt on opposing pass-catchers in coverage is what will determine whether or not he's a success at the next level. If he can, he will have been well worth the first-round investment.

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