TUCSON, Ariz. -- Is there a simple fix for what's ailing the Patriots offense? No. But might one tweak lead to the kind of improvement that could lead to better results during the final month of the season?
ESPN's Dan Orlovsky, friend of the Next Pats Podcast, has watched the Patriots closely and is wondering, "Why the use of so much shotgun?" He even took to social media to ask reporters to question Bill Belichick on the strategy.
Orlovsky went on: "Why [do the Patriots] believe that's what's best for their offense and the players they have?"
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Does the data back up that which Orlovsky sees on tape? Should the Patriots be under center more often?
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In four games since their bye week, the Patriots have run 224 total offensive plays, per Sports Info Solutions. Of those, 159 (71 percent) have come out of the shotgun. The Patriots have called pass plays on 122 of those 159 shotgun snaps.
The results have been mixed.
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Mac Jones is actually third in the NFL in completion percentage on those snaps out of the gun (70.0 percent). He's also ninth in yards per attempt (7.3) and 11th in rating (97.0). Pretty good.
But the Patriots have played it very safe on those shotgun passes, with an average target depth of just 5.8 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, which is shortest in the league. And the advanced numbers echo what Orlovsky believes, as the Patriots are just 22nd in the NFL in their percentage of pass plays from the gun that result in a positive expected points added (EPA) result (39.2 percent).
When under center the Patriots have remarkably similar results in terms of their league rankings, but the raw numbers are better. Just as they are out of shotgun, they're third in the NFL in completion percentage (74.1). They're also ninth in yards per attempt with a much-better-than-from-the-gun figure of 9.4. They're 15th in rating (99.8).
There's one massive difference: The advanced numbers say the Patriots are one of the best under-center passing teams in the league over the last month. They have a positive-EPA percentage (64.3) on under-center passes that places them second in the NFL and represents a major improvement over their shotgun work.
Yet the Patriots have had just 28 under-center dropbacks in the last four weeks. That's just 18.7 percent of their passes in that span and a whopping 94 (23.5 per game) fewer than their shotgun attempts.
Based on the numbers, Orlovsky has a point in the passing game.
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How about in the running game?
No matter the quarterback's positioning -- shotgun or under center -- they're not all that effective since the bye in the run game.
They have the same number of gun and under-center runs in the last four weeks: 37 apiece. They run it more efficiently on a per-carry basis out of shotgun (4.5 yards on average versus 3.8 when under center), but their league-wide ranking is better when under center (16th versus 23rd when in shotgun).
Once again, the advanced numbers tell the story of when the Patriots are at their best.
According to Sports Info Solutions, no team in the NFL has a higher "stuff rate" -- the percentage of runs that go for zero yards or fewer -- when running out of shotgun the last four weeks than the Patriots (29.7 percent). They're also the worst shotgun running team in the league in terms of EPA per rushing attempt (-0.2) these last four weeks.
When under center, it's still not great. But they don't rank at the bottom of the league. They have the eighth-highest run-stuff rate in football in the last month (32.4 percent), and they're 20th in EPA per rushing attempt from under center (-0.13).
Why not settle under center more frequently then if it could be argued the Patriots are a better running and passing team when Jones has his hands under center? Is it to keep him protected?
The Patriots actually have a higher pressure rate in the last four weeks when working out of the shotgun (27.9 percent of gun dropbacks result in pressure) versus under center (25.9 percent).
Maybe Jones is more comfortable working from the gun. Maybe play-caller Matt Patricia finds it simpler to have Jones in the gun for the vast majority of pass calls as this offense has been hunting simplicity since training camp.
Either way, Orlovsky's not wrong. It's worth asking Belichick why the approach is what it is. Especially at a time when offensive improvement for the Patriots feels hard to come by.