Perry: Speculating on potential free-agent QB options for Pats
Do the Patriots want to go into the 2021 NFL Draft without an answer at the quarterback position? Doesn't seem like something Bill Belichick would want to do again. He was fortunate that Cam Newton was still available even after the 2020 draft. At least Newton's running ability gave the Patriots something on the offensive side of the ball that kept them competitive for the majority of the year.If Belichick is looking for a solid option before April, though, the pickings could be slim. It takes two to tango to make a trade so there's no guarantee the Patriots will be able to pry away Jimmy Garoppolo from the 49ers or Derek Carr or Marcus Mariota from the Raiders. That leaves free agency.The good news: There are names folks will recognize who could be had on the free-agent market. The bad news: They aren't names that will, in all likelihood, elicit much in the way of excitement from the Patriots fan base.Belichick isn't concerned about excitement, of course. He's looking to win games and spend his team's money efficiently. Is there anyone available as a free agent this offseason who'll provide good value at the most important spot on the roster?Let's take a look. And let's have a little fun by placing odds on any of the following players ending up in Foxboro...
Age: 28
Our odds of Prescott landing with Patriots: 30/1
OK. Here's a name worth getting excited about. It just seems incredibly unlikely that the Cowboys would allow Prescott to go anywhere else. And even if he does shake free, would the Patriots be willing to pay him market value?
He should be paid more than Carson Wentz's average annual salary of $32 million but not quite as much as Patrick Mahomes' $45 million per year or Deshaun Watson's $39 million per year. A contract that would send Prescott about $37 million per year seems reasonable. It also seems like it'd be out of the Patriots' price range -- even though they are flush with cap space this offseason.
Age: 27
Odds of Winston landing with the Patriots: 15/1
Cost wouldn't be an issue for Winston. It would just be his style of play. He made just over $1 million last year to back up Drew Brees, and it seems unlikely that he'd be in line to make much more than that after showing very little in 2020. Factor in the shrinking cap, and he could be on a similar deal next season.
That wouldn't scare away Belichick. Winston's 88 career picks in five seasons as a starter in Tampa might, though. Is that Winston's fault? A product of Bruce Arians' no-risk-it-no-biscuit system? Winston did, even with the picks factoring in, rank as the 15th, 10th and 14th best quarterback in the league in terms of EPA per play. Not terrible. Still, seems like an unlikely match.
Age: 32
Odds of Taylor landing with the Patriots: 12/1
Taylor is another quarterback who may have to settle for the minimum. In all likelihood, it's going to be a rocky offseason for veterans who should be on rosters but aren't stars. With the cap slated to fall to as low as $175 million for each team, what I've come to understand is that the best of the best will still get paid. It's the veterans on their second or third contracts -- guys who are starters or key role players who'd make more than players on rookie deals -- who could feel the squeeze. That's Taylor.
He'd provide the Patriots with some mobility and an understanding of how to protect the football -- he had a 3-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in three years as a starter in Buffalo -- but he'd be little more than a stopgap option.
Age: 33
Odds of Dalton landing with the Patriots: 12/1
It's been a while since Dalton was good. He was never blessed with a top-end supporting cast in Cincinnati, but he had playmakers there at the tail end of his career and still the last time he cracked 90.0 in quarterback rating was in 2016. With some very talented receivers at his disposal in Dallas last season, he put up some very pedestrian numbers: 65 percent completion rate, 6.5 yards per attempt, 14 touchdown passes and eight picks in nine starts.
Maybe the Patriots would view him as a one-year option who would be able to manage a game. Maybe it'd be worth it to them to bring him aboard on a minimum contract. This might be signing with the least upside, though.
Age: 38
Odds of Fitzpatrick landing with the Patriots: 10/1
Fitzpatrick was the best quarterback on a team sniffing the postseason in 2020. He'll be 39 years old in November, but he showed last year he still had some gas left in the tank. How much he'd cost will be interesting to see. He completed 68.5 percent of his passes last year, averaged 7.8 yards per attempt and had a 95.6 passer rating. He's coming off making $8 million in base salary.
Would he want to be at about that rate once again? If so, that's still a relative bargain if he provides competent starting quarterback play. For one year -- particularly for a team like the Patriots that may need another year to solve its long-term quarterbacking question -- Belichick could do much worse.
Here's what Belichick said about Fitzpatrick late last season:
"Fitz has had a good career. He's played in a number of organizations and has been productive in all of them, really. He’s a tough, competitive guy that's probably as tough as any quarterback in the league in terms of being willing to block, not sliding, getting tough yards, things like that. And he’s mentally tough. He can shake things off and just continue to compete. I have a lot of respect for him and what he’s done."
Age: 28
Odds of Brissett landing with the Patriots: 10/1
Prescott is the only quarterback scheduled to hit free agency who should realistically earn himself a long-term commitment from his next team. Otherwise, it could end up looking like a lot of one-year prove-it deals.
Brissett is coming off of an incredibly nice (for him, not so much for the Colts) contract that paid him $20 million guaranteed. He won't sniff that at his next stop, but he could find himself on what has become the quarterback-reclamation-project contract that has become en vogue in recent years and typically given to one-time starters about to serve as promising backups.
A deal like that -- signed by guys like Marcus Mariota, Teddy Bridgewater and Ryan Tannehill -- might make sense for Brissett. He looked like he was on the verge of getting released by the Patriots in 2017 before they traded him for receiver Phillip Dorsett. Questions about his accuracy and decision-making that hounded him during his stop in New England have not been definitively answered during his time in Indy.
Age: 27
Odds of Trubisky landing with the Patriots: 9/1
Trubisky is another candidate for a contract that would pay about $7 million for one year -- effectively a prove-it deal. He would benefit from such a deal maybe more so than anyone else so long as he has an opportunity to play. That won't be a given after a season in which he averaged fewer than 7.0 yards per attempt (6.9) and threw eight picks in nine starts.
Trubisky has shown some promise in flashes. He's a good enough athlete to threaten defenses with his legs. He completed 67 percent of his passes last season and though he threw his fair share of picks, he did finish the year with 16 touchdown passes in 10 games.
Is he the future? Probably not. But could Josh McDaniels work with him and turn him into a viable NFL starter? It's not entirely out of the realm of possibility. He's just never performed up to his draft position as the No. 2 overall selection in 2017.
Age: 32
Odds of Newton landing with the Patriots: 8/1
We all saw how last year went. Newton had trouble throwing accurately at times. He had trouble seeing defenses clearly at times. But we also know he was tasked with throwing to one of the most limited groups of pass-catchers in the league. And we know the Patriots loved him. Across the board, they loved him. Bill Belichick, Josh McDaniels, team captains. They all were fans of the Newton Experience and all that entailed when it came to his leadership style and his work behind the scenes.
Both Belichick and Newton indicated toward the end of the year that had they had more time together, the results for the Patriots might've been different. Bringing back Newton likely would not cost the Patriots very much, and it might not be the favored option for fans, but if Belichick thinks the results would've been different with A) more time and B) different pieces around Newton, a return can't be ruled out.
Would Belichick rather a second season with Newton or a one-year answer like Fitzpatrick or Trubisky? His answer and yours may differ.
