The New England Patriots have their work cut out for them in 2022.
Bill Belichick's club enters Sunday's regular-season opener in Miami as a betting underdog against the Dolphins for the first time in nine years. His team is currently projected to miss the playoffs, and there are serious questions surrounding an offense that didn't name an official replacement for Josh McDaniels and is relying on two recently-fired head coaches (Matt Patricia and Joe Judge) in unfamiliar roles.
How much of that pessimism is warranted? Can quarterback Mac Jones and a strong running back 1-2 punch of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson bring the offense to life? Can a younger, more athletic defense find success where it failed down the stretch last season, which ended in a humiliating AFC Wild Card loss to the Buffalo Bills?
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Holley: What does Bill Belichick see in the 2022 Patriots that we don't?
Our partners at Strat-O-Matic Games used their advanced simulation software to forecast the 2022 NFL season, projecting the final record of every AFC team in addition to statistics for key Patriots players.
Here are the results.
Mac Jones delivers mixed results in Year 2
New England Patriots
A Year 2 leap for Mac Jones? ... Kind of.
The 24-year-old quarterback sees a slight uptick in passing yards (3,843) and touchdown passes (23) compared to his rookie campaign (3,801 and 22), but he also throws three more interceptions with a lower completion rate (62.6 percent compared to 67.6 percent) to finish with a worse passer rating (86.2) than his rookie season (92.5).
Jones' offensive line also struggles in protection, allowing him to be sacked 34 times in 17 games.
Still, Jones' numbers are indicative of a top-15 NFL quarterback, and the fact that he was able to essentially replicate his 2021 stats in a new offense with a first-year play-caller is cause for optimism.
Patriots' dynamic RB duo leads the way
Jones also doesn't need to be the star of the offense, because the Patriots have a two-headed running back monster in Stevenson and Harris.
Stevenson enjoys a breakout sophomore season, leading the team with 855 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns while adding 39 receptions for 315 yards and two more scores in the passing game. Harris is right behind him, racking up 828 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground.
New England should be thrilled if it gets this kind of production from both Stevenson and Harris in 2022.
Patriots run their late-season gauntlet...
Strat-O-Matic has the Patriots riding a roller coaster in 2022.
They start the season 2-0 but then drop six of their next seven, falling to the Cleveland Browns, Chicago Bears, New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts in a brutal four-game losing streak.
Things look bleak with a 4-8 record and one of the NFL's most difficult stretch runs, but Belichick's squad rallies to go 5-0 in its final five games, knocking off Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals, Josh McDaniels' Las Vegas Raiders, the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals, the retooled Miami Dolphins and the loaded Buffalo Bills.
... But too little, too late for a playoff berth
The Patriots' slow start ultimately did them in. The Bills (13-4) run away with the AFC East to earn the No. 1 overall seed, while the Los Angeles Chargers and Colts earn the final two Wild Card spots with 11-6 records.
The Kansas City Chiefs shockingly don't make the playoffs either, finishing 10-7 behind Russell Wilson's Denver Broncos (12-5) in the AFC West.
This result means three full seasons without a playoff win for New England, which fails to reach the postseason for the second time in three years following Tom Brady's exit.
If you're looking for silver linings, though, the Patriots appear to discover their identity late in the 2022 season, and perhaps that momentum can carry over into a 2023 offseason in which the team will be flush with cap space.