FOXBORO -- There's something interesting afoot with how the Patriots are being blitzed in 2018.
It's not happening very often. At all. But by different metrics, taking both short-term and long-term snap shots, blitz calls against Tom Brady have seemingly become increasingly more impactful.
The takeaway?
Teams don't want to blitz Brady too often because history would tell them that Brady -- who knows what he's looking at and is often armed with a fleet of effective short-area receivers -- will burn them. So defenses have picked their spots.
This is all pertinent this week because the Vikings are one of the best in the league in terms of picking their spots.
DIALING THINGS UP VS. PATRIOTS
Defenses have blitzed Brady on just 64 drop-backs this season. That's an average of about six blitzes per game. Brady averages about 38 drop-backs per game, meaning he's being blitzed about 16 percent of the time.
New England Patriots
For a reference point, that's about half the rate at which the Patriots defense has blitzed opposing quarterbacks in 2018. It's infrequent.
And over the course of this season, on the 64 blitzes Brady's faced, he's completed 33 passes for 446 yards, three touchdowns and one pick. He's been sacked six times. It adds up to a quarterback rating of 91.6.
Lately, though, the blitz has impacted Brady more than the season numbers would suggest. Since Week 5 against the Colts, Brady is 15-for-34 for 202 yards, one pick and five sacks against the blitz. That's a yards-per-attempt number of 5.9.
The Titans blitzed Brady 13 times -- the most he'd seen all season -- and held him to just 36 yards on five completions. Mike Vrabel's defense also sacked Brady three times when blitzing. The Jets blitzed Brady just five times, but it worked, holding him to 24 yards on two completions.
For a bigger-picture view of how Brady has handled the blitz, here's how Pro Football Focus has graded Brady on snaps against the blitz since 2016: 93.6 (2016), 77.9 (2017), 68.1 (2018).
VIKINGS ARE MUGGING SPECIALISTS
The question this week isn't whether or not the Vikings will blitz more based on how the Patriots have handled things lately. It's how effective will they be when they do?
Mike Zimmer's Vikings blitzed Aaron Rodgers and the Packers just three times last week. They blitzed Drew Brees only three times. For the season, they've blitzed just a shade over 25 percent of the time this season, which is below the league average, according to PFF. But on the 103 blitzes they've called, they've picked up 10 sacks and held quarterbacks to a rating of 72.7.
One of their go-to looks is the "double mug" as it's known in the Patriots locker room. Zimmer is credited with bringing that particular look to the NFL, also known as the "double A-gap blitz."
"The double mug," David Andrews said, "I guess he kind of started it . . . They do a lot of different things. I think they're a really well-coached team. It's not guys freelancing out there. It's guys in gaps. Guys know what their job is and they do it well. I think that's what makes them such a good defense is they're well-coached, tough, physical, and they play it very well."
It's a look the Patriots have employed liberally themselves -- particularly when it meant that the combination of Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins would be put in a position to use their athleticism one-on-one with a center, guard or running back in protection.
The damage was already done. Perhaps thanks in part to the confusion caused, the Packers protection fell apart and Rodgers was sacked. It wasn't a blitz. But the threat of the blitz seemed to ruin things for the Packers.
The Vikings can also blitz out of a more traditional look. Here, Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr were well off the line of scrimmage, but at the snap Kendricks attacked the A-gap while Barr looped around the offensive right tackle.
The Packers picked it up fairly well, but the result was one-on-ones across the line of scrimmage and Rodgers was forced to throw under pressure when his his right guard was bulldozed by 330-pound tackle Linval Joseph.
With the double-mug on tape, with blitzes out of more traditional looks on tape, the Vikings can then get a little weird when they want to.
How about a triple-mug?
The Vikings here bring Harrison Smith -- who was praised by Bill Belichick this week for his ability to disguise before the snap -- up to the line of scrimmage to go head-up on the center.
From there, the Vikings can make a variety of moves. They can drop all three into coverage to try to take away tight ends or slots. They can send one after the quarterback. They can send two. They can bring the house and dare the opposition to leave one of their seven rushers unblocked.
If anyone on the offense isn't clear on how to react based on the different looks, it can spell disaster.
Belichick detailed just how important communication up front -- between the quarterback and his linemen, and then between the quarterback and his receivers -- can be against pressure.
"They’re all problems that are solvable, but you have to have 11 guys doing the right thing," he explained. "If they get you in the gray area or change the look late, then that increases the degree of difficulty and the level of recognition that has to go on.
"Sometimes there’s post-snap recognition, too. So, it’s one thing and then when the ball is snapped it’s something else. Then David or the offensive line has to recognize that and the quarterback and the receivers have to make that same adjustment."
Disguises in the blitz game are something the Patriots have to deal with on a weekly basis. As a team that doesn't get blitzed much going against a team that doesn't blitz much, the Patriots may not have to deal with complicated looks all that often on Sunday. But how they handle the few looks they see could go a long way in determining the outcome.
The key for the Patriots could be to make sure they snuff out any blitz they see early on. If they can do that, Zimmer may scrap his beloved muggings.
If they don't, Brady, Andrews and the Patriots offensive line will likely be tested again and again. Then it's Tennessee all over again.
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