Patriots

Giles: Assessing Bill Belichick's Coach of the Year odds

Patriots

The NFL Coach Of The Year Award is one of the most wide-open prop bets on the board given that every team has a chance to at least improve or exceed expectations based on the prior year. And coming off a 7-9 campaign in 2020, Bill Belichick finds himself at +1800 to win COY on PointsBet, which is tied for the 10th best odds in the league.

The Patriots are garnering plenty of national attention as everyone awaits the decision at quarterback. And given the fact that Tom Brady won a Super Bowl in his first season in Tampa Bay, there's added interest into how Bill will proceed after re-signing Cam Newton and drafting Mac Jones with the 15th overall pick.

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Belichick has won the award three times (2003, 2007, 2010), the most of any active coach, and trails only Don Shula who won the award four times. But for Belichick to win the award in 2021, he's going to need the Patriots to make a sizable jump. I'm thinking somewhere in the neighborhood of 12-5 or 13-4 with rookie Mac Jones at quarterback while taking back the AFC East from the Buffalo Bills. Even that might not be enough considering the standard that Belichick is held to, often regarded as the greatest coach in football history.  

 

The other trend working against Bill? Since he last won the award, five of the last ten winners were all in their first year with a new team. Three of the last four were also first-time head coaches. And over the last ten years, the COY recipient has boosted its team's win total by an average of six games. It's worth noting that there's an extra win available with the 17-game schedule, so adding six wins will be slightly more attainable this year.

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THE FAVORITES

First-year head coach Brandon Staley (+1300) takes over a Chargers team that was 7-9 a year ago. LAC won its final four games of the regular season and showed promise with QB Justin Herbert, who is entering his second season. Brian Flores (+1300) has rightfully garnered attention in his first two seasons with the Dolphins and finished third in the voting in 2020 after improving from 5-11 to 10-6.

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Cleveland's Kevin Stefanski (+1500) won the award a year ago after the Browns went 11-5, which included a playoff win for the first time in over 25 years. San Francisco's Kyle Shanahan (+1500), Buffalo's Sean McDermott (+1500), and Los Angeles Rams' Sean McVay (+1500) round out the top six.  

Arthur Smith (ATL), Frank Reich (IND) and Ron Rivera (WFT) are all tied for seventh at +1600. Belichick is joined by Andy Reid (KC) and Robert Saleh (NYJ) at +1800. 

THE LONG SHOTS

Detroit's Dan Campbell and Philadelphia's Nick Sirianni are both +4000. Sirianni is intriguing. The Eagles were just 4-11-1 last year and still play in the NFC East. There's plenty of opportunity to make a big jump and a $10 bet nets $400.  

And at the bottom of the list are Jon Gruden (LV), Zac Taylor (CIN), and David Culley (HOU) all listed at +5000.