Pats-Bills opening spread the first of its kind since 2001


The New England Patriots' season of firsts on the betting front will continue into Week 16.

The Patriots entered Sunday's game against the Miami Dolphins as underdogs in the matchup for the first time since 2013.

As you'd expect, they're also betting underdogs for their Week 16 Monday night clash with the 11-3 Buffalo Bills, who clinched the AFC East title over the weekend.

Curran: Dolphins loss delivers harsh dose of reality for Patriots

Buffalo actually was favored in the teams' Week 8 matchup, as well. But this time, the Bills are even heavier favorites -- historically heavy, you might say.

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Here's the spread and points total for Patriots vs. Bills -- odds provided by our partner, PointsBet Sportsbook.

Spread: Bills -7 (-105), Patriots +7 (-115)

Total: Over 45 (-110), Under 45 (-110)


New England opens as a seven-point underdog to Buffalo. Here's a full list of games in the Bill Belichick era that the Patriots have been seven-point underdogs or greater against an AFC East opponent:

  1. Oct. 10, 2001: +8 at Miami (30-10 loss)

If the +7 line holds, Monday night would be the most lopsided betting matchup in favor of a Patriots divisional opponent in 19 years.

It would also mark just the seventh time in the last 20 years that New England hasn't been favored against the Bills. The Patriots historically have dominated their AFC East "rival" with an incredible 35-6 record since 2000. But the script suddenly has flipped in 2020, with a 6-8 New England team headed toward its worst season in two decades and Buffalo atop the division for the first time since 1995.

Perry: Time for a QB change? Belichick leaves the door open

So, the seven-point line is in many ways justified, especially if Bill Belichick waves the white flag and starts Jarrett Stidham at quarterback.

But before you place all of your money on the Bills, consider this: The Patriots are 5-1 against the spread in those six games as underdogs vs. Buffalo, per Rotoworld's EDGE Finder.