Patriots

Giles: Your Patriots betting primer for the 2021 season

Patriots

With the 2021 Patriots campaign set to begin on Sunday, there's still plenty of time to get in on some of the season-long bets including win totals, AFC East odds, and whether or not New England will make it back to the postseason. We'll be using PointsBet for this discussion so keep in mind that pricing may vary.

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PATRIOTS WIN TOTAL: OVER 9.5 (-115), UNDER 9.5 (-105)

One of your most popular bets for the regular season, the Patriots check in at 9.5. So if you can find yourself 10+ wins on the schedule, you're liking the over. Looking at the Patriots' schedule, there are certainly a handful of games I feel really good about them winning: Jets twice, Texans, Jaguars, Panthers (5). Other games I feel decent about: Saints, Falcons, Dolphins (good chance they could split with Miami). That gets you to eight.

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Other winnable games: Chargers, Cowboys, Colts. And then there's the 'maybe you can steal one from these playoff teams':  Browns, Titans, Bills (a split would be good). Outside of one game against Buffalo and the Week 4 matchup against the Bucs, the Patriots could be in any of these games.  

It's worth noting that injuries can always derail a season and even though we got a decent look at Mac Jones, he'll still likely go through some rookie growing pains. That being said, I like the OVER 9.5 wins.

 

If you feel really confident that New England will win nine games (+500) or 10 games (+500), you can bet on a team's exact win total. The Patriots winning eight games is +650 and 11 wins is +600.

AFC EAST ODDS

Buffalo is the favorite to repeat as division champs at -150. The Patriots jumped ahead of the Dolphins with the announcement that Cam Newton was being released, thus opening the door for Mac Jones. Bettors likely saw New England as having a slightly higher ceiling with Jones.

Buffalo Bills: -150

New England Patriots: +300

Miami Dolphins: +330

New York Jets: +2000

AFC CHAMPIONS

The Patriots find themselves tied for the seventh-best odds to win the AFC title game at +1700. New England was at +1800 on August 10th before joining the Dolphins and Colts at 17-to-1. The Chiefs are the favorites at +250 followed by the Bills (+550), Ravens (+675), Browns (+700), Titans (+1200) and Chargers (+1600).

SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS

No surprise that New England is a long-shot to win a Super Bowl with rookie Mac Jones. The Patriots are +3300, tied for 12th.  They're in the same neighborhood as the Colts, Dolphins, and Chargers. Last year's Super Bowl participants are the favorites with Kansas City checking in at +500 and Tom Brady and the Bucs at +600. The Packers (+1100), Bills (+1200) and 49ers (+1300) round out the top five.

PATRIOTS TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS - YES (+100), NO (-130)

I don't feel great about New England winning the division, never mind the conference title or Super Bowl. But I think there's a good chance they get back to the postseason after missing out last year. At this point, PointsBet is leaning towards New England being on the outside looking in, which means you're not paying any tax for the Patriots to get in at +100.

When considering this bet, it's helpful to look at last year's standings and decide which playoff teams are staying put and which one's could fall short. The Chiefs, Bills and Titans feel safe. The AFC North had three playoff teams last year with the Steelers, Ravens and Browns, but that seems unlikely to happen again. Even if it does, the Colts, Dolphins, Patriots, and Chargers will all be in the mix for a playoff spot.

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Indianapolis made it last year with Philip Rivers but they've now got Carson Wentz under center. He struggled mightily in Philadelphia and injuries have always been an issue. The Chargers have been a trendy pick after hiring Brandon Staley and strengthening the offensive line in front of Justin Herbert. But most of us in New England have a tough time seeing past the 45-0 drubbing the Patriots put on the Bolts a year ago. The Dolphins might present the greatest challenge but their chances rest in the hands of Tua Tagovailoa, who seemingly feels like he's under a lot of pressure to prove himself despite entering just his second year in the league.

 

Even with the uncertainty at wide receiver, or Stephon Gilmore's status beyond week six, or having a rookie at quarterback, the Patriots still have one of the best coaching staffs in the league.  And that's why they have as good a chance as any of the aforementioned bubble teams to grab one of the three wild card spots.