The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills will square off Monday night in a game that will have a huge impact on not just the AFC title race, but the AFC playoff picture as a whole.
The Patriots enter this Week 13 matchup as the conference's No. 1 seed after the Baltimore Ravens lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday afternoon.
The weather forecast for Orchard Park Monday night is far from pleasant
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New England's stay atop the AFC could be short-lived, though. Bill Belichick's team needs to beat the Bills on the road at Highmark Stadium to maintain that position.
Here's a recap of what's at stake for the Patriots in Monday's showdown versus the Bills. All of the percentages in the table below are from FiveThirtyEight's model.
| Scenario | Seed | Make Playoffs | Win AFC East | 1st Round Bye |
| If Patriots win… | No. 1 | 98% | 77% | 47% |
| If Patriots lose… | No. 5 | 81% | 19% | 8% |
A loss drops the Patriots four spots in the standings and makes winning the division pretty challenging. They would still be a strong bet to return to the postseason, but having a home playoff game would be unlikely.
New England Patriots
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A win gives the Patriots a nice cushion over the Bills and make them the favorite to finish the regular season as the No. 1 seed. Under the new playoff format, the only team in each conference that's awarded a first-round bye is the top seed.
Luckily for the Patriots, they have been awesome on the road this season with a 5-0 record and a point differential of plus-68.
Monday's game against the Bills will be their toughest road game yet, though. It's a tremendous test for Patriots rookie quarterback Mac Jones and a New England defense that's playing with all kinds of confidence amid the team's six-game win streak.