Patriots

NFL Week 4 odds: How Patriots-Packers spread is impacted by Mac Jones' injury

Patriots

The New England Patriots didn't just lose Sunday's Week 3 game against the Baltimore Ravens at Gillette Stadium, they also could be without their starting quarterback, Mac Jones, for a little while.

Jones reportedly has an ankle injury and will undergo an MRI on Monday to determine the extent of the damage. 

The second-year quarterback hobbled off the field at the end of Sunday's game and couldn't put much weight on his left leg. Judging by pictures of him coming off the field and being carried down the tunnel toward the locker room, he appeared to be in considerable pain.

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Jones' uncertainty has caused a large move in the spread for the Week 4 matchup between the Patriots and Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. The line opened at Packers -6.5 but has moved to Packers -9.5 or even -11 at some sportsbooks.

Here are the updated odds for Patriots-Packers, via DraftKings:

  • Spread: Packers -11 (-110), Patriots +11 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Packers -450, Patriots +360
  • Over/Under: Over 41 points (-110), Under 41 points (-110)

The Patriots are 0-4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games and 1-4 straight up over that span. New England also is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games against Green Bay. The Packers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games and 15-5 overall during that span. They are 9-1 straight up in their last 10 games at home, too. 

 

It's difficult to imagine the Patriots winning this game regardless of who starts at quarterback. The Patriots cannot protect the football -- eight turnovers in three games -- and the defense has been unable to consistently get key stops. The Packers just beat Tom Brady's Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road in Week 3 and their defense has played fantastic over the last two weeks. 

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is the two-time reigning league MVP, and even though his weapons on offense aren't amazing, he shouldn't have too much trouble picking apart a Patriots defense that got torched by Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson in Week 3.

Eleven points is a large spread, but if the matchup is Rodgers versus Patriots backup Brian Hoyer, you can't expect New England's offense to score much more than 13 or 14 points. In that scenario, the Packers need only 24 points or so to cover, which should be more than doable.