NFL Week 4 picks: Expert predictions for Patriots vs. Packers


Very few people outside the six New England states are giving the Patriots much of a chance to beat the Green Bay Packers in Sunday's Week 4 game at Lambeau Field.

The primary reason for pessimism around the Patriots is their situation at quarterback. Starter Mac Jones was ruled out Friday with an ankle injury he suffered in the team's Week 3 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Veteran backup Brian Hoyer, who has lost his last 11 starts, will replace Jones this weekend.

The Packers might not be the juggernaut they once were, but Aaron Rodgers is still an elite quarterback and Green Bay has a strong defense -- one that held Tom Brady's Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense to just 12 points last week.

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The Patriots are 1-4 all-time in Green Bay, and they are 1-4 on the road (including the 2021 playoffs) since beating the Bills in Buffalo last December.

Which way are experts leaning in this Week 4 matchup between the Patriots and Packers? Here's a roundup of picks, with a score prediction if provided.


Tom E. Curran, NBC Sports Boston: 21-20 Packers

Mike Florio, ProFootballTalk: 28-20 Packers

Albert Breer, Sports Illustrated: Packers

Zach Berman, The Athletic: Packers

Gregg Rosenthal, 21-15 Packers

Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 27-14 Packers

Bill Bender, Sporting News: 24-14 Packers

Bleacher Report NFL Staff: 24-12 Packers

Jeremy Fowler, ESPN: Packers

Dan Graziano, ESPN: Packers

David Hill, New York Times: Patriots +10.5

Sheil Kapadia, The Ringer: Patriots +9.5

FiveThirtyEight's model: Packers 73 percent chance to win