Patriots

Oddsmakers like Cam Newton's chances at NFL Comeback Player award

Oddsmakers like Cam Newton's chances at NFL Comeback Player award

Cam Newton has already earned a host of accolades over his football career.

The Heisman Trophy in 2010. The NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award in 2011. The NFL MVP award in 2015.

And now he might need to make room for another prize in his trophy case: the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award.

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After the Patriots reportedly added the three-time Pro Bowler on a one-year, incentive-laden contract Sunday, Newton shot towards the top of the favorites to win Comeback Player honors in 2020, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger: +300
  • Patriots QB Cam Newton: +400
  • Texans DE J.J. Watt: +700
  • Lions QB Matthew Stafford: +800
  • Buccaneers TE Rob Gronkowski: +800
  • WR Antonio Brown: +1000

Listed at +1400 before signing with New England, Newton is now listed at +400, passing players like Rob Gronkowski, J.J. Watt, and Matthew Stafford. Newton has the second-best odds overall, trailing only Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (+300).

For Newton, the key is health. As Phil Perry outlined here, Newton was among the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks before a shoulder injury in 2018 and a Lisfranc injury in 2019. The drop-off over his last five games has been severe, and it's been a huge factor in a personal eight-game losing streak since early November of the 2018 season.

Though not listed in the chart above, last season's foot injury last season severely hampered Newton's mobility, as he only rushed five times for -2 yards in two games before being shut down. Hopefully for the Patriots, months of rehab and recovery will get Newton back to his early 2018 form.

Three Patriots have won the AP Comeback Player of the Year award in the past: Tedy Bruschi in 2005, Tom Brady in 2009, and Rob Gronkowski in 2014. Should Newton become the fourth, the Patriots will have found a way to withstand Tom Brady's departure without a huge drop-off in quarterback play.

Manish Mehta: Cam Newton is third-best quarterback in AFC East

Manish Mehta: Cam Newton is third-best quarterback in AFC East

The New England Patriots' two-decade run of having the best quarterback in their division appeared to end when Tom Brady joined the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in March.

But on Sunday, the Patriots re-entered that conversation by agreeing to a deal with former NFL MVP Cam Newton.

Newton hasn't played at an MVP level over the last couple of years partly due to nagging shoulder and foot injuries. When healthy, though, the ex-Carolina Panther has proven to be one of the league's most productive signal-callers.

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That isn't enough to convince Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News that Newton is the top quarterback in the AFC East. From best to worst, Mehta originally ranked the division's QBs as Sam Darnold (New York Jets), Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills), Ryan Fitzpatrick (Miami Dolphins), and then Jarrett Stidham (Patriots).

Those rankings didn't change much with Newton presumably overtaking Stidham on the depth chart.

"The top of my rankings are going to stay the same," Mehta told Trenni Kusnierek and Gary Tanguay on Thursday night's Early Edition. "I still think Sam Darnold is the best quarterback in the AFC East followed by Josh Allen. I'm going to put Cam third and for purposes of this discussion, I'll put Tua [Tagovailoa] as the Dolphins quarterback. Obviously I think Ryan Fitzpatrick's the better player now, but I don't know how many games he'll actually start.

"So I'm going Darnold, Allen, Cam, followed by Tua."

Tanguay argued that if healthy, Newton is at the very least the clear-cut No. 2 over Allen.

"I just think it's a big 'if,'" Mehta responded. "What gives you any indication that Cam Newton is going to be the Cam Newton from two or three years ago? It's such a big unknown.

"Now, I will grant you that if we see the Cam Newton from a few years ago, that you can make a legitimate case that Cam Newton's the best quarterback in the division. I just think that's a big ask given what we've seen out of Newton these last couple of years."

It remains to be seen which version of Newton we'll see when training camp gets underway later this month. Either way, the Patriots don't have much to lose considering Newton's extremely team-friendly contract.

Mehta's evaluation of AFC East QBs only furthers the point that Newton will have plenty to prove in the coming months. If his recent social media posts are any indication, he's up to the challenge.

Former Patriots exec thinks Cam Newton addition was a 'no-brainer' move

Former Patriots exec thinks Cam Newton addition was a 'no-brainer' move

The New England Patriots lost the best quarterback of all-time in free agency when Tom Brady took his talents to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Replacing him is an impossible task, but the addition of Cam Newton should give the Patriots a tremendous chance to remain competitive in the 2020 NFL season.

The veteran quarterback reportedly agreed to a one-year contract with the Pats that pays him just $550,000 guaranteed and could be worth up to $7.5 million if all incentives in the deal are met.

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Michael Lombardi is a former league executive who's worked with Patriots head coach Bill Belichick during his time in New England and with the Cleveland Browns. On the latest episode of Lombardi's "The GM Shuffle" podcast, he explained why bringing in Newton was a "no-brainer" for Belichick.

“You talk about 2015, granted that was the MVP season, but if you really study '18 and really examine those eight games in 2018 -- the last time he won was Nov. 4, 2018 against the Buccaneers -- he was sensational,” Lombardi said. “Here's what you're going to get with Cam Newton: You're going to get a guaranteed 3,600 yards passing. You're going to get 600 yards, minimum, rushing. You're going to get over seven yards per pass attempt. And you're going to get a low percentage of interceptions

"In 2018, he threw 15 touchdown passes and four interceptions before the shoulder injury. He was averaging 7.2 yards per attempt. He was electrifying. He only was sacked 12 times in those eight games, which was really low for the Carolina Panthers with their offensive line. So book those numbers and then add in the Josh McDaniels factor, add in the Patriots factor, and you’re probably looking at 4,200 yards passing, you’re probably looking at 750 rushing, and you're looking at 7.3 or 7.4 yards per attempt. If he stays healthy, he’s going to get Comeback Player of the Year. This was a no-brainer for the Patriots to do it."

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The money alone makes the deal an easy one for the Patriots. New England has almost no salary cap space, so to get a player of Newton's caliber for so little money easily is worth the gamble. 

Newton, if healthy, is still a fantastic quarterback capable of exposing defenses with his arm and his legs. The worry is Newton's durability. He's 31 years old and coming off a 2019 season during which he missed the Carolina Panthers' last 14 games due to injuries. 

So, there's some risk in adding Newton to the roster, but there's no doubt he'll be extremely motivated to shut up his critics and earn another huge payday next offseason. From a motivation and team need perspective, Newton and the Patriots have the potential to be a great partnership.