FOXBORO -- Prior to their game with the Bengals, one member of the Patriots organization suggested to me that, if they lost, it could be difficult to keep the team together for the final two games of the season.
They viewed that Christmas Eve matchup as a must-win.
As abrupt and disconcerting as that loss to Cincinnati was for the Patriots -- the first half might've been the worst half of football they'd played in 2022 -- a funny thing happened the next day. The Dolphins lost to Green Bay. And suddenly the Patriots were back in control of their own destiny.
Win two, and they're in.
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Tell any player prior to the start of a given season that those would be the circumstances he'd face with two weeks left in the regular season, and he'd take it.
"It's been a crazy year, right? We're still in it," Matthew Judon said. "We still have something to fight for. ... It just seems like every week, we still have another week. Until we don't, we're going to continue to go out there and fight."
New England Patriots
For how long, though? And how effectively?
The effort switch didn't appear to turn on last week until halftime. And even if it's pointing in the right direction from the opening kick Sunday at Gillette Stadium, will it matter? Or will that effort be negated by the lack of attention to detail that has plagued their offense all year, or injuries nagging the secondary, or mental lapses that lead to untimely penalties and turnovers?
There remains a feeling of resignation in pockets of the facility that they are who they are on multiple fronts. They are a team led by its defense that can't rely on its offense to score consistently. They are mistake-prone and at times disorganized.
But can they overcome all of that to maintain a pulse for one more week? Can't be ruled out.
"We know it’s going to be a knock-down, drag-out situation," Matthew Slater told WEEI this week. "We expect this is going to be a fight for our lives. They’re going to fight for their lives. We’ll see how it plays out on Sunday."
Matchup that will decide the first half
Kendrick Bourne vs. Miami man-to-man coverage
The Patriots often want to lean on their running game and see if they can slug their way to yards and time melted off the clock. And why not? Especially when they have one of the top battering-ram backs in football in Rhamondre Stevenson.
The issue? Stevenson has touched the football 258 times this season, more than twice the number of any other Patriots skill-position player. And he may be getting gassed.
"I’d say I’m feeling it," Stevenson said this week. "I feel what everyone talks about with the NFL season. But I feel like I’m doing a good job taking care of my body, and I’m just trying to stay proactive more than anything. But yeah, I feel the season, for sure."
Add that to the fact that this Dolphins defense has been fairly stout against the run -- they're ninth in run DVOA, per Football Outsiders -- and that means the ball is going to have to be put through the air on a regular basis. And the Patriots are going to have to beat man coverage if they want to be able to sustain drives.
Based on what he did last week against the Bengals, Bourne (who checked in as Pro Football Focus' highest-graded wideout in the NFL in Week 16) should see plenty of work early on in that kind of game. If the coaching staff allows him to see the field, of course.
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Over the last three weeks, including a game in which he played just 11 snaps against the Raiders, Bourne has produced like a No. 1 receiver from an efficiency standpoint.
Among wideouts with at least 10 targets since Week 14, per Sports Info Solutions, Bourne is seventh in yards per route run (2.9), 15th in yards per target (9.8) and 17th in quarterback rating generated (126.3). And showing just how much Mac Jones trusts Bourne, almost a third of Bourne's targets in that span (four of 15) have been contested.
If Bourne can make an impact early, that could be enough to sway how the first 30 minutes of this matchup play out.
Matchup that will surprise you
Mac Jones vs. Dolphins defensive coordinator Josh Boyer
This isn't the same Dolphins defense you've come to expect over the last few years, which really was transformed under Brian Flores as a bully-you-into-submission kind of unit. Even though Boyer -- another branch off the Bill Belichick coaching tree -- was Flores' right-hand man defensively, this year's group hasn't packed the same punch in the passing game.
The Dolphins are 25th in pass-defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders, and they're solidly a middle-of-the-pack unit on a per-pass basis (7.0 yards per attempt, 16th).
The Dolphins defense isn't as good as you remember, perhaps, and Mac Jones probably hasn't been as bad as you think.
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The offense overall has been dreadful for a variety of reasons, but over the last six weeks, their primary problem hasn't been the quarterback.
In that timeframe, according to SIS, he leads the league (among passers with at least 100 attempts) in on-target percentage despite being in the top-half of the league in average throw depth (7.5 yards, 12th in the NFL). His IQR -- a quarterback-rating metric generated by SIS that accounts for things like drops, spikes and throwaways -- is ninth. He's also third in interception percentage in that span.
Will he be protected? Will his targets not be colliding on a regular basis? Will the play-calling help encourage any kind of rhythm? This is a Miami team that can be had in the passing game, even by the Patriots, so long as Jones gets a little help.
He may get a little help based on the injury situation the Dolphins are dealing with on that side. Two of Miami's best defenders are banged-up. Cornerback Xavien Howard was added to Thursday's injury report with a knee issue, and pass-rusher Bradley Chubb hasn't participated in two days of practice with ankle and hand ailments.
Matchup that will bring you joy
Matthew Judon and Josh Uche vs. Dolphins offensive linemen
Here's another matchup where injuries are a factor. Both Judon and Uche are fine. And they continued to pose problems last week, breezing past Bengals linemen at times when Joe Burrow didn't have the ball out of his hands quickly. Each had a sack, Judon drew a hold and had another sack negated by an Uche hands-to-the-face penalty.
On the other side, though, Miami left tackle Terron Armstead is dealing with a variety of issues -- toe, pec, knee, hip -- that have held him out of practice for two days. That could mean Uche, who typically works off the offensive left side, could be using his speed to try to cross up a backup left tackle.
Against a backup quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater, who tends to hold onto the football just a tick longer than starter Tua Tagovailoa, that could be a recipe for disaster for the Dolphins.
Matchup that will take years off your life
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle vs. Patriots' backups corners
When the Patriots drafted Marcus Jones in the third round back in the spring, he was thought to be a versatile athlete and someone who would match up well with the undersized burners playing receiver in Miami. Pair him with Jonathan Jones, another lightning-fast player with good change-of-direction skills, and you'd have a couple of capable options against the dynamic duo of Hill and Waddle.
Unfortunately for the Patriots, all three Joneses who play corner are hurt. Marcus Jones has a concussion and has missed two days of practice. Jonathan Jones has a chest issue that has had him limited in practices. And Jack Jones, a starting-caliber player when healthy this season, has missed two practices with a knee injury. Furthermore, Jalen Mills (groin) hasn't practiced this week.
That could mean a backup like Shaun Wade seeing real time in this matchup. Or ... maybe a pair of practice-squadders have to be elevated to see their first snaps of the season in a Patriots uniform.
Giving anyone flashbacks to late last season? Not what you're looking for.
Matchup that will determine the outcome
Teddy Bridgewater vs. Jerod Mayo and Steve Belichick
Matt Cassel, who played with Bridgewater in Minnesota, described for us the new Dolphins starter's skill set on Next Pats. He is, essentially, a right-handed Tua Tagovailoa. He may hold onto the ball a tick longer than Tagovailoa, and he may be a little more deep-throw averse than Tagovailoa has been this year under Mike McDaniel. But their skill sets are similar.
What Mayo and Belichick have to hope is that they can cook up some zone coverages that confound the veteran.
Rolling with man-to-man consistently, particularly if the cornerback room isn't healthy, feels like a losing proposition. So can they devise some softer calls in the secondary that can still encourage Bridgewater to make mistakes? Can they at least buy the Patriots' pass-rush enough time to get to the quarterback for a game-changing play or two? As much as the Patriots, generally speaking, like to play man ... that may just not be in their bag this week because of their injury situation.
Last time Bridgewater was the guy for Miami, in a loss to the Vikings and their permissive secondary (25th in quarterback rating allowed this year), he lit up zone coverage, according to SIS, with a 70 percent completion percentage against zone, 10.0 yards per attempt and a 110.6 rating, throwing down the field consistently with an intended air yards per attempt figure of 8.6.