The New England Patriots will look to make it three consecutive victories when they host the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football.
First, it's time to dive into some of your mailbag questions. Let's get into it...
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Hey, Gregg. There are a few things there. First of all, define "struggles." Is it a bad half with two picks? Is it a bad game? A bad month? Even then, what's "bad" in that scenario? What I can tell you is there is a lot of confidence inside One Patriot Place that Mac Jones is their best quarterback. Period. Doesn't mean folks believe he's bound for Canton. Doesn't mean they don't like Bailey Zappe and believe he can win them games. But memories are longer within the team's facilities than they are among sections of the fanbase clamoring to hand the job to Zappe.
The other thing I think we should consider, for those who believe Zappe should keep the job until he loses it, how is that beneficial to his development? What does that do for the team's confidence in either quarterback? What does it do for the team's belief in Bill Belichick's decision-making? Belichick cares about how things play in the locker room, despite all you may have been led to believe otherwise over the years. He cares about buy-in and belief in his message. If he leaves Zappe in when Jones is healthy enough to play, then yanks Zappe at the first sign of trouble, he's waffling. Not where he wants to be.
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Based on my conversations with sources close to the situation, my expectation is Jones will be healthy enough to play against the Bears. And my expectation is that when he's healthy enough to play, he'll start.
All that said, it'd be only human for Jones to feel as though there is pressure on him now to produce. He's seen someone else do his job. He's seen his team win games. None of this was expected going into the season. Jones was expected to get every snap of consequence, and if he didn't, a 37-year-old veteran backup would be taking over as no real threat to be the long-term answer. But then... Zappe. The dynamic has changed. Not that it's a dynamic -- where there's another good young player at the position -- Jones is unaccustomed to.
For him to enter the season as the unquestioned starter is actually the unusual piece of this situation for Jones. He's been used to working his way up a depth chart as a backup. Even the year in which he led Alabama to a National Championship, he had to fight off a young five-star recruit to keep the job he took over when Tua Tagovailoa got hurt. He had to beat out Cam Newton to start as a rookie.
There is no controversy, in my estimation. They know who the better player is. In my mind, the only thing that could ever move Belichick off that spot is an unacceptable run of turnovers. I don't think that's in the offing. The offensive line has improved over the last three weeks. The offensive play-calling has dialed things way back in terms of its aggressiveness and found success. It's a better situation than the one Jones left in Week 3, and the results should be better.
It's a combination of all of those things, Scott. I thought our conversation with Kurt Warner on this week's Next Pats was really instructive. Zappe makes good decisions. Those decisions may be relatively simple based on the situation, the number of reads he has to make, and how wide-open some of his targets have been. But give him credit for knowing what he's looking at, as Warner described it. Credit Matt Patricia, Joe Judge and Bill Belichick for using far more play-action calls than they did with Jones. Credit the Lions and Browns for being incredibly ineffective.
But Warner's not the only one impressed by Zappe.
One AFC defensive assistant who has studied Zappe told me, "He sees it well. He's accurate. Good touch. Good anticipation. Not a great arm, but he has the touch and anticipation to throw a good deep ball. They may not ask him to drive it down the middle of the field very much, but he has enough to threaten deep. I mean, that's a great pick by them. In the fourth round? He could be a really good backup for a long time, which has a ton of value."
One AFC quarterback evaluator told me, "He's the high end of what you drafted him to be. He's a backup you could win a bunch of games with in the right situation. In the wrong situation, it could be a mess. But surround him with the right pieces and the right coach and you get what you've seen. Helps that they're running the hell out of the ball and scoring on defense every other week. They shouldn't be winning these games on paper based on who's back there, but they are."
John, I think there's an understanding that they've found a good balance with Jones out. If they can run the ball the way they did in Green Bay and against the Lions, that can lead to some great play-action opportunities. (Even though they didn't run it all that well in Cleveland, the Browns were still selling out to stop the run because of what the Patriots had put on tape in previous weeks. That led to some big-time production from Zappe off of play fakes.)
Just consider some of these numbers when it comes to how the offense has looked with Zappe versus how it looked with Jones.
In the last three weeks, according to Pro Football Focus, 31.6 percent of Zappe's dropbacks have been play-action calls, which was seventh-most in the NFL in that span. Another 18.4 percent of Zappe's dropbacks have been screens, which was fifth-most in that stretch. According to Next Gen Stats, Zappe's intended air yards per throw figure sits at 6.4, which is fourth-lowest in the NFL.
Lots of play-action. Lots of screens. Short throws.
In Weeks 1 through 3, it was a different story for Jones. Only 12.8 percent of Jones' throws were play-action attempts, per PFF, which was 27th in the NFL in that three-week window. His screen percentage sat at 5.1, which was 26th in the league. According to NGS, his intended air yards per throw figure was at 10.0, which was second-highest in football, behind only Jameis Winston.
Very little play-action. Not many screens. Risky deep attempts.
As much as Zappe's success may serve as a wake-up call of sorts for Jones, it should be equally eye-opening for the coaching staff. Perhaps dialing back the aggressiveness and dialing up the quarterback-friendly concepts -- maybe even some seldom-used RPO concepts? -- would lead to the results everyone involved is hoping for.
Totally, SE. Get excited. He has the kind of speed that can change the geometry of opposing defenses. But -- and I really don't want to sound like a perfectly-coiffed gameshow host here -- that's not all. His release package is legit, and when paired with the straight-line speed that will be noted in every weekly scouting report from now until the end of his career, he's going to be forcing defenders to second-guess his intentions pretty consistently.
The only thing that may temper your excitement is the durability factor. There's a reason most players are thicker than Thornton. And that showed up on essentially his first NFL tackle back in Week 1 of the preseason. But if he can stay on the field, watch out.
The issue with Bourne is that he is eminently tradable. Young. Talented. Owner of an inexpensive contract. But, for all those reasons, the Patriots have preferred to hold onto him. Adding to the list of arguments against dealing him right now? He's under contract beyond this season, unlike Nelson Agholor and Jakobi Meyers. There have been injuries at the position -- Meyers is still wearing a bulky knee brace, Agholor is missing time with a bad hamstring, and Thornton only just got back into the lineup -- so the depth he provides matters. Also... he's hurt so any return in a deal could be limited unless he can prove the turf toe injury he suffered in Cleveland isn't going to hold him back.
Cassel is the best. We yell because we love. Can't begin to tell you how much he's taught me over the years working with him, and I'm constantly calling him for help in trying to understand the game better. He is an invaluable resource, a good friend, and we're incredibly fortunate to get to work with him as often as we do. I also know full well that he'd pummel me if he ever decided to, which means any time I push back against him I make sure I'm at least 500 miles away.
Barring another injury to the quarterback position, I'm not sure why they'd rush him back to the active roster. He can attend practices, though not participate, and be in the facility to help with prep. Value in that alone. But Zappe has proven he's deserving of the No. 2 spot.
Agree to disagree, Boom! They were very good. But not one-of-the-best-in-recent-memory good, in my opinion. Here's the list of quarterbacks they faced as they won their first eight games: Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen, Luke Falk, second-year Josh Allen, Colt McCoy, Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield. Only one of those (Jones) finished with a quarterback rating over 85.0 that year. The average rating that year was 90.4.
They absolutely bludgeoned that group, and there's something to say for that -- their DVOA that year is a strong argument as to just how good they were. But hard for me to call them a historically-dominant group when they couldn't stop Fitzpatrick and an objectively (historically?) bad Dolphins team in a gotta-have-it moment at the end of the season. They gave up 30 to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Deshaun Watson had a big night against them. Those are great quarterbacks. And the Patriots defense was good. They just weren't what they were touted to be.
I think he's helped, Clare. No question. And he feels like an upgrade at right tackle when he's been in there for Isaiah Wynn. But that hasn't been the only development. Trent Brown has improved leaps and bounds since a rough Week 1. He's been dominant in the running game at times, and the from-another-planet talent Myles Garrett seems to be the only player who's given him a hard time since that day down in Miami. I'd start there. Then I'd include some schematic changes that have helped. Everyone looks more comfortable -- to be expected with a rookie starting along the interior -- and though there are still matchups they lose, they are much fewer and farther between.
Feels like a good time to call it! Thanks for the questions this week, friends.