We’ve spent most of the week hyping the chore the Patriots defense has to deal with Sunday night.
We haven’t talked as much about the absolute pleasure it should be for Tom Brady and the Patriots offense to see the Kansas City defense.
Last week was the first time the Chiefs held an opponent to fewer than 23 points (the Jags scored 14 in a lopsided loss). The cupboard is nearly bare at safety. Eric Berry hasn’t played this season, and remains doubtful for Sunday. KC had a wideout taking reps in the secondary on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Justin Houston, their best pass rusher, is also doubtful with a hamstring (though Dee Ford on the other side is pretty good, too).
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New England Patriots
There are some stats that indicate KC has a potent group. For instance, they’re allowing just 29.3 percent third down conversions (and that’s after the Jags went 7-for-16 last week). But if you look at the fine print, you see the fact is offenses don’t even get to third down against the Chiefs a lot of the time.
They’re allowing a league-worst 461 yards per game (502 to the Jags last week), and they allow an average of 6.14 yards per play on first down runs (the Patriots are allowing 3.6).
Even worse? Get this stat: on 103 first-and-10 pass plays, the Chiefs are allowing 8.39 yards per play and offenses are converting first-and-10 passes into first downs 34.95 percent of the time.
All of which leads me to believe that Josh McDaniels is going to look across the field and salivate. Why worry about Pat Mahomes and the rest of the Chiefs offensive weapons, when you have Tom F'n Brady and guys who’ve won Super Bowls.
The Patriots had great balance when they played the Chiefs last year. Brady threw 36 times (completing just 16) and the Patriots ran it 35 for 124. But that was dictated by personnel. The team was still adjusting to post-Edelman life, Gronk was still laboring to get back to peak Gronk and the Kansas City pass rush was an issue (Houston had two of the three sacks and four quarterback hits.
This time, it’s almost a certainty they’ll spread the Chiefs out and give them the rotating sprinkler treatment the same way they did to the Colts on their opening drive last week.
The matchups, the statistics, the personnel -- it’s all too inviting for them to do anything else.