The Divisional Round matchup between the Patriots and Chargers was among the more fascinating schematic showdowns we'd been presented with all year. This week, there's just as much to dig into when looking at how the Patriots stack up with the Chiefs. And the expectation is that it will be a much better game than the ones these teams played last weekend to get to this point.
Grab a shovel and let's go . . .
PATRIOTS MAN COVERAGE vs. MAHOMES
Trying to slow down the man who will likely be deemed the league's Most Valuable Player for 2018 is going to be difficult. Regardless of the weather. Regardless of the field conditions. He's been that good against...just about whatever has been thrown his way. Consider this: He's Pro Football Focus' highest-graded quarterback against zone coverages this year, but he's also shredded teams that love to play man-to-man. According to Sports Info Solutions, against five defenses that were in the NFL's top-12 in terms of man-to-man usage, he averaged 328.6 yards per game, 3.8 touchdowns and 0.8 picks per game. One of those defenses was the Patriots, who he lit up for 352, four scores and two picks. There's good news here for Patriots fans, though. First: They're the only team to keep the Chiefs offense out of the end zone in the first half this season. (Only one other team kept them out of the end zone for a half -- the Niners in the second half of Week 3.) How'd they do it? Man coverage. Teams hesitate to play man against the Chiefs because Mahomes is athletic enough to scramble for yards with defensive backs not looking into the backfield, and because his weapons (Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, in particular) are among the league's toughest covers at their positions. But the Patriots, who play more man than any team in football, still used it quite a bit in the first half of Week 6. How'd Mahomes fair? He went 6-for-13 for 49 yards and two picks for a quarterback rating of 16.6. In the second half, Mahomes threw two short touchdowns -- both to Hill -- against man but still didn't set the Patriots defense ablaze in man-to-man situations. For the game, he went 11-for-22 for 91 yards, two touchdowns and two picks against Patriots man-to-man looks. That's good for a quarterback rating of 53.4. Plus, one could argue the Patriots have become a better man-to-man team since then with the emergence of JC Jackson, who went from a healthy scratch in Patriots-Chiefs I to one of their starting corners for Patriots-Chiefs II -- and an extremely productive one at that . . .
GILMORE/JACKSON vs. HILL/WATKINS
Hard to say that what Jackson has done at his position as an undrafted rookie is the best we've seen from an undrafted rookie in recent Patriots history. There's that Super Bowl-winning interception from four years ago, obviously. But Jackson has helped transform the Patriots defense over a lengthy stretch during his first season as a pro in a way Malcolm Butler never did. His first start came in Week 13 against the Vikings. Since the Patriots came back from their bye in Week 12, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, no team has forced more tight-window throws (23.3 percent), no team has generated more pressure thanks in part to Patriots coverage in the secondary (32.3 percent pressure rate), and New England is second in completion percentage allowed (59.2 percent). "He's definitely made us better," Duron Harmon said. "He's made us better. Just look. I don't want to be a stat guy but look at how we've fared over the past since he's been in there. He's done a tremendous job. Putting Steph [Gilmore] on one guy, you know that's locked down. Then this guy who has phenomenal man-to-man skills too. It just makes us more aggressive as a defense and lets the safeties be a little bit more free and play strictly off the quarterback." The question is who does Jackson see on Sunday? He has three picks, he leads all NFL corners (minimum 25 percent playing time) in quarterback rating against (42.0), and he's been especially productive against the deep ball. Devin McCourty has called him the best tracker of the football he's seen in his time in New England. He's part of the reason the Patriots allowed the second-lowest percentage of deep passes to be completed this year (26 percent), and he'll be key against a quarterback who completed 43 percent of those passes (third in the NFL) this season. Will he see Hill, who saw and caught more deep targets (20 yards or more down the field) than anyone this season? Perhaps with help over the top? That's unclear at the moment, but he's an option. I'd lean toward using Gilmore, the highest-paid member of the secondary and a First Team All-Pro corner, on Kansas City's speed demon. You know Gilmore, who has seen opposing No. 1s all season, would enjoy that challenge. That would leave Jackson to take on Sammy Watkins (Gilmore's assignment in Week 6) and Jason McCourty (who saw a lot of Hill in Week 6 with help) to take Chris Conley.
KELCE vs. THE WORLD
New England Patriots
If you watch the Patriots play the Chiefs back in October, notice what they did with Kelce at the line of scrimmage. Snap after snap after snap, they made sure to get hands on him at the line of scrimmage. Dont'a Hightower went out near the boundary to get him once. Trey Flowers aligned well wide of what he's used to in order to take his shot. Kyle Van Noy got him as well. The Patriots mixed up their coverages on Kelce, using linebackers and safeties primarily, but they doubled him in critical situations on third down and in the red zone. He may be more of a receiver in a tight end's body than he is a true tight end. But it's clear, given the resources devoted to him, that the Patriots respect the hell out of his ability. He was jammed and then doubled in the red zone late in the first half against the Patriots yet Mahomes still threw his way. He was picked. The Patriots allowed Kelce to reel in five passes that night for 61 yards. In four career games against the Patriots, he has 24 catches on 34 targets for 217 yards and a touchdown.
BRADY vs. SUTTON
Another week, another defensive coordinator against whom Tom Brady has a wealth of experience. Bob Sutton spent 13 seasons helping to coach and run the Jets defense, starting there in Brady's rookie season. Since 2013 he's been with the Chiefs, and he has his tendencies. He, like the Patriots the last few years, loves man-to-man defense. Even if his personnel isn't always necessarily geared to win those one-on-one matchups in the secondary. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Chiefs ran man at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL this season. The Patriots aren't exactly loaded with man-coverage beaters offensively. Josh Gordon is gone. Rob Gronkowski isn't the same receiver he was at this time last year. But what they can do is turn to man-beaters in their playbook to help them create openings. Slant-flat combinations on the outside, high-low crossers over the middle and other play-calls that naturally create traffic for defensive backs could be go-tos for Brady and Josh McDaniels this week. Plus, the Patriots can clear out space for their two best man-coverage receivers to work one-on-one with their defenders. Julian Edelman and James White (we'll get to them) have juicy matchups that could have Brady licking his chops int he short-to-intermediate area. Helping the quarterback and his offensive teammates is the fact that the Chiefs have a secondary that has made significant changes late in the season. They just cut safety Ron Parker, who started 14 games for them this season. Eric Berry could be back in action, but he's been banged up all season and has been dealing with a heel issue of late. Orlando Scandrick (seven starts this season) has become a bit player at corner and Charvarius Ward -- an undrafted rookie out of Middle Tennessee State -- has taken on a significant amount of work as their No. 3 corner, starting in his team's last three games after not starting all season. The Chiefs have a pass-rush that can make things easy for their teammates in the secondary, but this is a group that is particularly susceptible to heavier formations. They're arguably the worst team in the league against 21 personnel (two backs, one tight end), allowing 6.2 yards per carry and 7.9 yards per pass attempt. The only team in the league who used more "21" this year than the Patriots were the Niners with do-it-all fullback Kyle Juszczyk. Expect Brady and McDaniels to see what they can do out of that grouping nice and early.
EDELMAN vs. FULLER
Julian Edelman had only been back for two games when he saw the Chiefs earlier this season, but he looked "fresh as lettuce," as his quarterback might say, when he beat Kendall Fuller for a 17-yard touchdown. That's a matchup the Patriots could try to exploit Sunday as Fuller has been one of the most generous slot corners in football this season. He bumps into the slot in three-corner packages for the Chiefs, and from the inside he's allowing a quarterback rating of 110.5, which is sixth-worst in football among corners with at least 50 percent playing time, per PFF. Edelman looked as healthy as he's looked all season last weekend against the Chargers, working against a variety of defenders (including All-Pro defensive back Desmond King) to finish with nine catches and 151 yards on 11 targets.
PATRIOTS INTERIOR vs. JONES
McDaniels wasn't lying when he said that Chris Jones was "as good of a player as we’ve played in the front all year." He is the definition of disruptive, whether he gets to the quarterback or not. He batted three passes on 25 pass-rush snaps last week against the Colts and he ended up with 72 total quarterback pressures on 431 pass-rush snaps this season. The Chiefs have a lot going on up front with Dee Ford and Justin Houston on the edges; Ford ended up a top-10 pressure player in the NFL, racking up some type of disruption on 13.8 percent of his rushes (seventh-best in football, per SIS). But Jones can destroy a play before it starts, whether it's in the running game or passing game. David Andrews told us on Patriots Wednesday that it's going to take a group effort to slow down Jones so look for protection schemes to shift his way at times as Andrews, Joe Thuney and Shaq Mason work to help one another inside. You can also expect the football to be out of Brady's hands quickly to help keep the Kansas City rush at bay. No team has generated more pressures at home than the Chiefs (118) thanks, of course, in part to the crowd noise at Arrowhead forcing teams to use a silent count.
MICHEL vs. CHIEFS FRONT
We told you the Chiefs aren't good against two-back sets. But they've been bad against the run this season regardless of the personnel grouping. They allowed 5.0 yards per carry this year, and in Week 6 Sony Michel ran for 106 yards on 24 attempts, creating 61 yards after contact. As a team, the Patriots ran for 173 yards on 38 attempts and created a whopping 97 yards after contact. Should the Patriots be fortunate enough to see the Chiefs overplay the run and deploy a handful of linebackers, that's when they should go to their short passing game with White or Rex Burkhead. Neither Anthony Hitchens nor Reggie Ragland -- their top two players at the second level -- are effective in coverage. Hitchens allowed a quarterback rating of 126.5 when targeted this season, and Ragland is right behind him at 111.7.
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