Bean: What Pats should be willing to spend for every QB on trade market

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This figures to be a chaotic offseason for the quarterback position. Lots of QBs will change teams and there’s a very good chance the Patriots will find themselves a new starter.There will be free agents out there — Mitchell Trubisky, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton, Jacoby Brissett, etc. — but some of the most interesting names would require a trade. So here’s basically every QB I can think of who could end up in a trade (including QBs in the draft for whom the team might need to move) and what I’d be willing to pay for them if I’m the Patriots.You’ll probably notice a lot of these prices, such as those for Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson, are low. Why? Because the Patriots can’t afford to trade a ton for a quarterback. As such, the only way they’d seemingly be able to trade for one of them would be if the price was a lot lower than what we’ve speculated for the players.This is absolutely not a “Here’s what these guys will cost” list. It’s a “Here’s what the Patriots should be willing to pay for these players” list. So you’ll see a lot of these prices and think, “Well then, they’re not going to get the guy.” Correct. In most of these cases, they simply aren’t in position to do so.

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1/17

Patriots trade: No. 15 pick in 2021, 2021 compensatory third-round pick, 2022 first-round pick, 2022 second-round pick

This is clearly an insufficient package, but if I’m the Patriots, I’m not trading for Deshaun Watson. He’s coming from an organization that can’t build a team around him, and the Patriots paying the real price -- three first-round picks, at least -- would mean he’d be in a similar situation in New England. The only way it would make sense for the Pats to get him would be on a bargain, which isn’t happening.

2/17

Patriots trade: No. 15 pick, 2021 compensatory third-round pick, 2022 first-round pick, 2022 second-round pick

See the description for Watson. The Patriots are not in a position to give up a load of picks for a top quarterback on his second deal. Here’s what can be said for Wilson, though: He’s shown over his career he’s probably better served to get more out of less than Watson.

3/17

Patriots trade: No. 15 pick, 2022 first-round pick

This is both begrudging and unrealistic. First, why it’s unrealistic: No. 15 and a future first would get the Patriots to anywhere from No. 3 to No. 5, per Rich Hill’s draft pick value chart, but is Wilson going to be there? Furthermore, would the Dolphins at No. 3 be willing to essentially trade the Patriots a quarterback?

Now, for why it’s begrudging: It’s hard to invest a ton in someone who’s been called an “entitled brat” after what happened with Josh Rosen. All of the top QBs in this draft not named Trevor Lawrence have at least one big question mark, and for Wilson it might be his character.

The Patriots obviously will do their homework to see if that quote about Wilson being a bad leader checks out, but look at Bill Belichick’s last two quarterbacks: Tom Brady, who did everything he said, and Cam Newton, who went above and beyond to be a team guy. Belichick’s known for taking risks on players with character concerns if it means they come at a bargain, but would he spend big for a quarterback with them? 

4/17

Patriots trade: No. 15 pick, No. 47 pick

On paper, this could get the Patriots to around No. 6, which is lower than Fields’ projection. However, if a team prefers Trey Lance to Fields (which is very conceivable), maybe the first five picks could go something like this: 

1. Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence

2. Jets (or someone else): Zach Wilson

3. Dolphins: Penei Sewell or an offensive weapon (Ja'Marr Chase, Devonta Smith, Kyle Pitts, etc.)

4. Falcons: Lance

5. Bengals: Sewell or an offensive weapon (Chase, Smith, Pitts, etc.)

If that’s the case and the Patriots love Fields, it’s worth going without a second-rounder to secure their QB. They’ll just need to have addressed receiver and tight end in free agency.

5/17

Patriots trade: No. 15, 2021 fourth-round pick, 2022 second-round pick

Lance is a massive question mark with huge upside given that the North Dakota State QB only played one game this past season. He’s also only had one full year as a starter, but he’s mobile with a great arm and doesn’t throw interceptions (zero in 14 games as a red-shirt freshman).

He’s a risk given the lack of experience, but if the Patriots like him, he’s got the skill set to be a star. No. 15 and No. 47 would be able to get the Patriots to No. 7, per Rich Hill’s draft chart. The Pats need young players now, though, so if they make a significant move up the board, better to hold onto this year’s second and make up for it by including one of their three fourths.

6/17

Patriots trade: Move up in second round (or move down from No. 15)

Not a huge Mac Jones guy. The skill set isn’t massive and he legitimately had better weapons in college than he’d have with the Patriots. But there’s at least a chance one team -- Washington, Chicago, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Tampa Bay -- grabs him in the first round.

New England picks before those teams, but No. 15 would be too high. If the Pats stay at No. 15, a good scenario would be a team trading up ahead of them for Jones, which would allow a better prospect at a different position to fall to New England.

 

Perry's Patriots Mailbag: Could Belichick trade down from No. 15?
7/17

Patriots trade: No. 47 pick, 2022 third-round pick

Ryan would be an excellent placeholder quarterback for the Patriots while they search for the long-term solution over the next three or four years. If he became available, he’d surely go for more than this, but the Patriots don’t have enough good young players to spend a lot of draft capital on a 35-year-old QB. It’s similar to why they were wise to not spend big on Matthew Stafford.

 

Bean: Why Pats missing out on Stafford was a good thing
8/17

Patriots trade: No. 47 pick, 2022 second-round picks

If the Raiders go all-out for a quarterback in a trade, the Patriots would be smart to jump in and make it a de-facto three-team trade in order to get Carr. He’s a top-15 quarterback, but he’s both boring and frustrating to watch. He’ll be 30 next season, though, so the Patriots would be buying a long time of strong quarterback play. Vegas reportedly wants two first-round picks for him. That’s too much, but I’d do two seconds.

 

Perry: Does it make sense for Pats to pursue Carr?
9/17

Patriots trade: No. 47 pick

I’m low on Wentz, especially for what the Patriots need. He’s turned into an unknown, but we do know he doesn’t like competing with a young quarterback. That doesn’t sound like a good recipe, considering whichever team gets him shouldn’t just give him the keys completely. 

A pick swap of a team’s late first-round pick and Philly’s second-rounder would make sense, but the Patriots are picking in the middle of the first. If they’re into Wentz and OK with the contract, a deal built around their second-round pick wouldn’t blow up in their face if Wentz isn’t the guy after a couple years.

10/17

Patriots trade: No. 47 pick

This just seems clean and easy. The Pats initially got a second-rounder for Garoppolo, which was too low given his stock. Now, though, between Garoppolo’s contract and his injury history, a second-round pick would be a fair price for a player trying to get back to what he was in 2019.

 

Perry: Is Garoppolo the Patriots' most logical option at QB?
11/17

Patriots trade: No. 47 pick

This would be a big swing for the Patriots to take, because there’s no telling if Darnold can play, but it is really that much bigger a risk than assuming Garoppolo will stay healthy?

12/17

Patriots trade: No. 47 pick

The Dolphins’ top priority should be trading for Deshaun Watson. If they do that, Tagovailoa would make sense to go to Houston. If the Texans stay at No. 3, though, they’d still be wise to look for a QB. There’s no way Tagovailoa’s play as a rookie sold the Dolphins.

If they pull a Cardinals and draft a QB in the top 10 for a second straight year, what’s Tagovailoa’s value? Maybe a team gives them a first, but Josh Rosen fetched a second-round pick a year after he was drafted.

13/17

Patriots trade: 2021 compensatory third-round pick, 2021 fourth-round pick, 2022 third-round pick

Aaron Rodgers just won MVP; was that the equivalent of Garoppolo lighting a fire under Tom Brady in New England? Maybe, maybe not. But if the Packers want to go all-in on the end of the Rodgers era, they could get some picks by trading Love. Given that Love went at the end of the first round, they certainly wouldn’t get a first for him, but this package would be roughly equal to a late second.

14/17

Patriots trade: Fourth-round pick, 2022 late-round pick

A lot of people were wowed by Mariota in that Thursday Night Football game against the Chargers, but he definitely wasn’t good enough to wrest the starting job from Carr. If he’s moved this offseason, do the teams trading for him know for sure that he’s a good NFL starter? He’s closer to Mitchell Trubisky, whom teams can sign without having to surrender any sort of trade package.

 

Next Pats Podcast: Why the Patriots should NOT be looking for the next Tom Brady

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17/17

Patriots trade: Fourth-round pick

This would be the move for me. Minshew’s on his rookie deal and has shown he’s a decent NFL quarterback. He’s cheap and could use the next couple years to either earn the job long term or be a placeholder for the next guy.

Trading a mid-round pick for a decent quarterback would allow the Patriots to use their early picks to stock the cupboard at wide receiver, tight end and front seven. 

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