Glass half full? Three reasons why Patriots could exceed expectations

Let's face it: There haven't been great vibes around the New England Patriots this offseason.

While their AFC competitors have loaded up -- Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins, Von Miller to the Buffalo Bills, Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders, etc. -- the Patriots have been relatively quiet, declining to make any significant moves outside of their recent trade for wide receiver DeVante Parker (who comes with his own question marks).

As a result, not many people are high on New England's chances in 2022: PointsBet set the Patriots' win total at 8.5 after their 10-7 campaign in 2021.

But are we too down on Bill Belichick's club? The Boston Herald's Andrew Callahan joined Tom E. Curran on a new Patriots Talk Podcast to provide a "glass-half-full" outlook for the 2022 squad, sharing three reasons why this team might be better than we think.

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Reason No. 1? The talented young quarterback.

"Number one with a bullet has to be Mac Jones," Callahan said. "This kid is going into Year 2 -- the proverbial Year 2 leap. But also, you look back at last season, he had one of the best seasons by any rookie in NFL history.

"On paper, we know good-to-great quarterback play can paper over a lot of issues you might have. Brady did this for years. Bad pass protection? Get it out more quickly. Poor separation? Put it in a spot where only your guy can get it.

"I'm not saying he'll be a top-10 quarterback next year, but if you look at the schedule, he'll be the best quarterback in eight to nine games, depending on how you feel about Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins."

But will Jones have enough quality targets to throw to, especially if Parker battles injuries this season? That brought Callahan to Reason No. 2: He's bullish on wide receiver Nelson Agholor and tight end Jonnu Smith bouncing back from disappointing 2021 campaigns.

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"Let's start with Agholor," Callahan said. "I tweeted this the other day: Mac Jones last season -- you would think (Agholor) had pissed him off in practice the way (Jones) was throwing deep to him. Only 40% of (Jones') deep throws to Nelson Agholor were accurate. That was by far the lowest on the team.

"So if that number goes up one or two and he catches one or two more of those posts or go routes, he goes from 475 yards to 650. If you went into last season saying, 'Nelson Agholor's going to have five touchdowns and 650 yards,' that's a win. I think he bounces back."

As for Smith, Callahan says the tight end "can't get any worse."

"He's 26, he's in his physical prime, he had less than 300 yards and one touchdown last season and basically got phased out of the offense before Halloween. So, again, same thing with Mac Jones: Year 2, you've got a full offseason in the system, and if you're not going with a fullback, that means more snaps for him."

Even if the Patriots can score enough points, can their defense hold the fort with questionable depth at cornerback after J.C. Jackson's departure? Callahan's third reason for optimism is New England's pass rush, which could benefit from a favorable schedule.

"The Patriots are also going to face one of the softest schedules in terms of pass protection, according to Ben Baldwin of The Athletic," Callahan noted. "... Ten of the Patriots' games next season are against teams in the bottom 12 (of Baldwin's rankings)."

Callahan is looking to edge rushers Matt Judon and Josh Uche as well as defensive tackle Christian Barmore to take advantage of their opportunities.

"I think they take a step up, partly because their competition is coming down to them, but also, you're going to get more production from your key guys," Callahan noted.

If that's too rosy of an outlook for you, Callahan also shared three reasons why he's concerned about New England entering this season. Check out the latest episode of the Patriots Talk Podcast on the NBC Sports Boston Podcast Network, or watch on YouTube.