Perry: Five matchups to watch in Patriots vs. Bengals

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FOXBORO -- Matthew Judon brings an obvious level of enthusiasm to his job. He's consistently one of the loudest members of the Patriots locker room, and game-day approach is frenetic. Just watch his reel of sacks this season and the number of hustle, chase-down plays he's made.

It wouldn't be realistic to assume every player would attack his job in a similarly energetic manner. But there is a requisite level of enthusiasm necessary in order for a player -- and a team -- to finish out the month of December emphatically. The sport is too demanding. The weather is too punishing. If you'd rather be elsewhere, it would be painfully obvious.

Might be easy for Patriots players to slip into a less-than-enthusiastic mindset given the nature of their last loss, that they've dropped three of their last four, and that they've slipped to the bottom of the NFL in a number of different offensive categories.

But Judon said Thursday that he appreciates the energy level his teammates have exhibited this week as they attempt to do exactly that. How much enthusiasm has he noticed in the Patriots locker room this week?

"The same amount," he said. "We're the same people every day we come in. It's still one loss. However we lose, it's still one loss. However we lose, we come back to work. I think nobody has changed their mentality or their approach to game week or how they come in and work.

"The people with high energy are the same people with high energy. [Devin McCourty] is still old and grumpy. [Adrian Phillips] and [Ja'Whaun Bentley] still argue all the time. We're the same, man. I think that's what I respect about everybody on this team. Win, lose or draw we come to work and come back with the same attitude, the same characteristics and the same character and approach to the game week."

The Patriots will have to bring all they have from an energy, focus and execution standpoint if they want to beat a Bengals team that hasn't lost since Halloween. Let's get to the matchups that'll determine this one...

Matchup to win the first half

Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Bengals front-seven

The Patriots are coming off a performance in Las Vegas where they racked up more than 200 yards on the ground, with Stevenson leading the way as he charged ahead for more than 6.0 yards after contact per carry. With where the Patriots passing game is currently situated, Stevenson will have to be the engine for the Patriots offense bc once again. But he'll run up against one of the better run defenses in football on Saturday.

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Cincinnati -- led by defensive tackles DJ Reader and BJ Hill -- is eighth in rush yards per game (109.6) and rushing yards per attempt (4.2) this season. If the Patriots can’t run the ball and run it early, could make for a long Christmas Eve afternoon.

Matchup that will surprise you

Patriots offensive line vs. Bengals pass-rush

The Bengals could be without their bookend rushers this week, which may be the second-most impactful portion of the injury report this week (more on that later). If either Sam Hubbard (calf) or Trey Hendrickson (wrist) are limited in this one, the Patriots could provide Mac Jones the time he needs to find open receivers. That may be surprising for folks who’ve watched this line operate this season, but it may not be as stunning for those with the Raiders game still fresh in their minds.

While Vegas got to Jones on multiple occasions as the game came to a close, tackles Trent Brown and Conor McDermott held their own for the most part against a talent pass-rushing duo in Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones. If they can have a repeat performance on the edges Saturday, that could be the eyebrow-raising jolt the Patriots offense needs to try to make something of this final three-game stretch.

Matchup that will bring you joy

Marcus Jones vs. Darrin Simmons

The Patriots rookie return man has been one of the bright spots for this team over the course of the last couple of months. He has a case as a Pro Bowl snub, as a matter of fact, since he leads the AFC in punt-return average and is second in kick-return average to go along with a game-winning touchdown against the Jets a few weeks ago.

Against Simmons, the special-teams coordinator for the Bengals, Jones could end up having himself a day. The Bengals have the sixth-worst punt team, according to Football Outsiders DVOA. They also have the seventh-worst average opposing starting field position after kickoffs in the NFL (26.2 yard line), per Football Outsiders. With a return threat like Jones, against punt and kickoff units that have been generous at times this season, perhaps the rookie out of Houston gives the fans at Gillette an early Christmas gift.

Matchup that will take years off your life

Ja'Marr Chase vs. Patriots secondary

Chase isn't the only Bengals receiver who could cause problems, of course, but he's the best of the bunch. "Fast, quick, strong," Belichick said when asked for a quick scouting report on Thursday. Those are, of course, understatements. He's the No. 10 wideout in football this season, according to Pro Football Focus' grades, and he's among the most efficient pass-catchers in the league. Among 36 receivers with at least 80 targets, per PFF, Chase is top-12 in yards after the catch per reception, yards per route run and quarterback rating when targeted (107.9).

Tee Higgins isn't all that far behind. And he's even better statistically in some categories with a quarterback rating generated of 124.0, which is second-best in the NFL among wideouts with at least 80 targets. He's 13th in yards per route run, right behind Chase, and he's 11th in yards per catch.

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This pair is a problem most weeks for most defenses, but there are two things that make them a particularly difficult matchup for the Patriots secondary. 

First, Bill Belichick's defensive backs are banged up. Jalen Mills (groin) has already been ruled out. Two more of their top options at the position -- Jonathan Jones (chest) and Jack Jones (knee) -- are listed as questionable. That could leave Marcus Jones and Myles Bryant, capable but undersized corners, as the healthiest options against two imposing and hard-to-tackle wideouts. Shaun Wade, a seldom-used corner who measures in at 6-foot-1, is another option for Belichick this weekend.

Second, Joe Burrow lights up man-to-man coverage. That's been the bread and butter of the Patriots defense this year. They're among the league leaders in man-coverage percentage this season, as they have been just about every season since 2018. They may want to move away from that approach, though, given the personnel available to them in the secondary and the opponent coming to town. Burrow is second in the NFL in completion percentage against man coverage this season, per Sports Info Solutions. He's also third in yards per attempt against man and fourth in quarterback rating against man.

Not ideal for Patriots fans who'd like to coast into Christmas feeling good about their football team.  

Matchup that will determine the outcome

Matt Judon vs. Ted Karras

OK so this won't exactly be the matchup, but it sounded more fun to list the best Patriots pass-rusher and the former Patriots lineman who has become a staple on a much-improved offensive line in Cincinnati. And there is a chance Judon -- who has had a number of sacks come off of games that have him attacking the middle of the line of scrimmage -- ends up trying to beat Karras to get to Burrow.

But the bigger-picture idea here is that this game could come down to the Patriots' pass-rush. As we detailed above, the secondary could have issues Saturday. And if the defense has to be the driving force behind this team winning games to finish out the season, then that means this week will come down to the bodies up front and the plan drawn up for them by Jerod Mayo and Steve Belichick.

Good as Burrow is -- and he's in the MVP discussion for a reason -- the way to bring him back down to earth is by pressuring him. Among 33 quarterbacks with at least 50 under-pressure dropbacks this year, Burrow has the fifth-worst completion percentage (55.3), he's 17th in yards per attempt under pressure (6.3) and 22nd in sack percentage (22.2) on pressured dropbacks. If the Patriots can get after him with Judon, Christian Barmore and Josh Uche, they'll have a chance to turn him from a top-five quarterback into a bottom-half-of-the-NFL passer by some metrics.

The only problem? Burrow doesn't get pressured very often. He has the ninth-lowest pressure rate, according to SIS, because a) Karras and the rest of that line have done a good job of protecting him, and b) he's one of the fastest-to-throw quarterbacks in the NFL, behind only Tom Brady in his average time to throw (2.50 seconds, per PFF).

Prediction: Bengals 27, Patriots 17

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