Curran's Patriots-Cardinals Preview: Is an upset realistic?

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The Patriots are looking to bounce back from their horrible loss to the Texans with an upset victory over Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. Tom E. Curran breaks down the Week 12 matchup and gives his prediction.

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This may be a weird thing to hold against a football team for 12 years. But the Cardinals' December 2008 performance against the Patriots when they quit because it was cold and absorbed a 47-7 loss makes me skeptical of their moxie. Still? Even though everyone from that team except Larry Fitz is gone? Yes. Still. The Cardinals have better football players than the Patriots.

But traveling East on a holiday week, playing without Fitz – and others – because of COVID and having some markers of a team that lacks focus (a league-leading 79 accepted penalties against them and a league-leading 24 “stalled drive” penalties), bringing a second-year quarterback in to face a Bill Belichick defense for the first time and having an ultra-aggressive defense that can be outsmarted? I smell an upset.
 

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The Cardinals defense under Vance Joseph plays an attacking 3-4 scheme with pressing corners and extra rushers sent as often as possible. They have a tremendous young safety in Budda Baker who makes plays all over the field, linebackers Haason Reddick, Jordan Hicks and De’Vondre Campbell who have combined for 197 stops and 22 tackles for loss this season. This is a classic case of a defense that’s faster and more athletic than the Patriots personnel. So how will New England neutralize? By using their aggressiveness against them.

Watching the Cardinals against Seattle, there were defensive breakdowns that Russell Wilson was able to seize on. Those breakdowns and what led to them won’t escape Josh McDaniels’ attention. The sizable loss of Rex Burkhead is going to impact the offense but the Cardinals are not impossible to run against so look for Damien Harris to be the point of the spear with jet sweeps and outside runs being a key component where McDaniels takes advantage of the Cardinals’ aggressiveness.

EDGE: Patriots
 

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3/12

These guys put up numbers. Until their most recent game, a 28-21 loss to Seattle, they’d scored 30, 38, 37, 31 and 32 points. Murray is the tiny little cocktail straw that stirs Arizona’s drink with 619 rushing yards (on 92 carries) to go along with good – not great – numbers as a thrower. He’s completing 68.3 percent of his passes with 19 touchdowns and eight picks. He doesn’t take a ridiculous number of sacks – 16. By comparison, Russell Wilson’s taken 33.

Murray is dealing with a shoulder issue so we’ll see how that impacts both his throwing and willingness to tuck it and run. Kenyan Drake is their lead back (4.4 YPC), Chase Edmonds is their changeup back (4.9 YPC). Arizona’s got a nice complementary group of wideouts with DeAndre Hopkins (72-912-4 TDs), Larry Fitzgerald (43-336) and Christian Kirk (31-477-6). With Fitzgerald out because of COVID, we’ll see who bumps up the food chain.

In the last few games, team after team has shown they are more than happy to throw on the Patriots. The Cardinals are more than equipped to do it as well as anyone. But something about seeing a Bill Belichick-led defense for the first time makes me wonder if Murray will enjoy the same success that a veteran like Joe Flacco or a supreme talent like Deshaun Watson could enjoy.

EDGE: Cardinals
 

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4/12

Bill Belichick is an admirer of the Cardinals special teams. “The kicking game is one of the best units we faced all year. They are an excellent coverage team. They have very good returners with [Christian] Kirk and [Chase] Edmonds. So, they can create big plays with their rushes, with their returns and their coverage units. They lead the league in kickoff coverage and blocked punts and they have explosive guys back there. So, this will really be a big challenge for us in all three areas of the game.”

Arizona kicker Zane Gonzalez has missed a couple of clutch kicks in recent weeks and is 15-for-20 overall.

EDGE: Cardinals

5/12

OUT: RB Rex Burkhead (knee), OT Isaiah Wynn (knee)

QUESTIONABLE: LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (groin), DL Tashawn Bower (illness), DL Adam Butler (shoulder), DL Byron Cowart (back), DL Carl Davis (concussion), DB Kyle Dugger (toe), K Nick Folk (back), CB Stephon Gilmore (hand), WR N'Keal Harry (shoulder), TE Ryan Izzo (hamstring, hand), G Shaq Mason (calf), WR Matthew Slater (knee), RB J.J. Taylor (quad).

6/12

OUT: TE Darrell Daniels (ankle), DL Josh Mauro (hamstring), S Jalen Thompson (ankle).

QUESTIONABLE: OL Justin Murray (hand), S Charles Washington (groin).

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Bill Belichick vs. Kyler Murray. The Patriots have so far confounded and contained (for the most part) wunderkind quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson this season. They got slapped around by Deshaun Watson in the first half last week and a lot of that was thanks to Watson just playing out of his mind. Murray is going to get the Doug Flutie Treatment. Make him throw out of trash can, so to speak. Rush him. Hem him in. Make him think it through.

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Damien Harris.
 

Bottle up the running game, bottle up the offense. It’s kinda that easy against New England since this team isn’t equipped to pull off a 10-play drive that nibbles in the passing game the way it did for the past decade.

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DeAndre Hopkins.
 

This is what Stephon Gilmore makes all that money and got a $5M raise for. Shutting down – or at least winning his share – against the very best wideouts in the NFL. Hopkins certainly qualifies as that and with Murray’s mobility buying time, Gilmore is going to need to hold up a little longer in coverage.

10/12

“The zone read is a big play for them, where the quarterback either gives to the back on his own play or keeps it. They also have a variety of scheme plays and other plays that go with that – some of the plays that go with the zone read, but then they have another series of plays that are probably game plan specific that they use against certain teams or certain looks that they pick out. And the quarterback obviously is a big part of the running game. There are a number of plays that he has the option to run the ball or keep the ball. So, it’s two plays in one, sometimes three in one.”

– Bill Belichick on the elements of the Cardinals core rushing attack.

11/12

“I’d just say the level of preparation week-in and week-out. Coach Belichick had you prepared for any and every situation that could possibly occur on a football field. At times, it seemed tedious with the walk-throughs and you almost felt like he was overdoing it, but then Week 8 the actual situation would pop up and you’d be prepared for it and the entire team would handle it and find a way to win the game. So, more than anything, I’d just say preparation was at a level that I had never seen before.”

– Kliff Kingsbury, Cardinals head coach and former Patriots draftee, on what he learned from Belichick.

12/12

Patriots 31, Cardinals 30

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