Curran's Pats-Dolphins Preview: Expecting a defensive battle
With their playoff hopes on life support, the Patriots head to Miami for a divisional showdown against Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins. Tom E. Curran breaks down what he envisions will be a low-scoring matchup.
It aināt over yet! For the Patriots to make the postseason, just two of the following four things have to happen.
- Browns lose their final three
- Colts OR Titans lose their final three
- Dolphins lose at least two of their final three
- Ravens lose at least two of their final three
Uphill climb? Yeah. But the list of necessary help was five items long on Thursday. It shrunk when the Raiders lost. So the Patriots are on a scenario roll.
Of course, New England has to win each of its final three. And that process starts Sunday at Miami where they play the 8-5 Dolphins, recipients of a 21-11 scolding from New England in the season opener. A lotās changed for both teams since then. Miami, since an 0-2 start has lost to Kansas City, Seattle and at Denver. No shame in those. The Patriots lost to all three as well. And theyāve easily handled teams the Patriots lost to ā San Fran, the Rams.
The Dolphins, however you slice it, are a better team than New England. But will they be better Sunday?
Miami has been good at stopping the things the Patriots either like to do or frequently find themselves trying to do.
The Patriots want to run it? Only once in their past five games have the Dolphins allowed a YPC over 3.8 or a team to gain 100 yards on the ground. The Patriots are a team that finds itself frequently in third down? The Dolphins are one of the leagueās best on third down (33.12 conversion percentage). The Patriots have turned the red zone into 700-level trigonometry? The Dolphins are 10th in the league in red zone stinginess. The Patriots throw picks (31st in the NFL in picks per pass play)? Miami comes up with them (third in picks per pass).
The Dolphins are very aggressive under Brian Flores and have gotten good front seven production from Emmanuel Ogbah, Shaq Lawson and Kyle Van Noy. They also have a strong secondary with Eric Rowe at strong safety, Bobby McCain at free safety and top-tier corners Xavien Howard and Byron Jones.
EDGE: Dolphins
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Two things argue in New Englandās favor here. First, the two most productive Dolphins targets in the passing game ā DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki ā are banged up and will be limited at least in this one. Second, Tua doesnāt know what he doesnāt know. He may have great mobility and above-average throwing accuracy but ask yourself this: If the Patriots can handle Kyler Murray with relative ease with DeAndre Hopkins on the field, donāt you think they can hem in, harass, confuse and block the vision of the still brand-new Tagovailoa? You are correct. And they will.
Flores will want offensive coordinator Chan Gailey to keep his quarterback out of harmās way, which means run it. But the Dolphins donāt run it with much verve. They are averaging 3.6 YPC this season. So with the injuries, the youth of the quarterback and the lack of an imposing running game, I do not see Miami going up and down the field.
EDGE: Patriots
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Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders is having a very good year. Heās 30-for-32 on field goals and has made all 30 of his PATs. His two misses came outside 40 yards. The Dolphins are best in the league at covering kickoffs (16.1 average return) and are fifth in average punt return (11.2) with Jakeem Grant leading the way. Heās got a hamstring issue so that may slow him. Their punter Matt Haack is average.
Meanwhile, the Patriots' best player this year has been Jake Bailey. Gunner Olszewski has gone from punt return parody to almost perfect the past three games. And Nick Folk is steady as a metronome. Both teams are good on āteamsā but the edge is New Englandās.
EDGE: Patriots
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QUESTIONABLE: DL Adam Butler (shoulder), DL Byron Cowart (back), OT Jermaine Eluemunor (ankle), K Nick Folk (back), DL Lawrence Guy (shoulder), RB Damien Harris (ankle), OL Justin Herron (ankle), CB J.C. Jackson (knee), CB Jonathan Jones (neck), G Shaq Mason (calf), WR Donte Moncrief (thigh), WR Matthew Slater (knee), RB J.J. Taylor (quadricep), RB James White (foot)
QUESTIONABLE: RB Salvon Ahmed (shoulder), LB Jerome Baker (knee), G Ereck Flowers (ankle), TE Mike Gesicki (shoulder), WR Jakeem Grant (WR), S Bobby McCain (ankle), WR DeVante Parker (hamstring), LB Elandon Roberts (chest), LB Kyle Van Noy (hip)
Red zone
The Patriots were uncharacteristically awful against the Rams in the red zone, going 0-for-4 inside the 20 in scoring touchdowns. They are 27th in the league down there, converting at 52 percent. Miami is 10th in red zone defense (57.9 percent). The Patriots need to be better down there and the Dolphins ā with Tua running things ā will have to be careful about getting fooled when the fieldās compressed. I expect field goals. (Also, Iāll throw in dealing with the heat here. Gets warm in Miami.)
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Sony Michel
It would be a stretch to say Sony Michelās auditioning for his future with the Patriots on Sunday. But after 10 games of solid production from Damien Harris, Michelās performance is going to be under heavy scrutiny with Harrisā ankle injury reportedly keeping him out against the Dolphins.
Since taking over for the injured Michel in Week 4, the hard-running Harrisā production has been steadily impressive (691 yards on 137 carries, 5.0 YPC). Harris had 100 yards on 17 carries in his first start against the Chiefs. Heās gone over 100 two more times since and has only been under 4 yards per carry just three times in his 10 games.
Michelās played in five games. He had a nine-carry, 117-yard outburst against the Raiders in Week 3 (thatās when he injured his quad and went to IR). In the other four games, Michelās been under 4 yards per carry in all of them.
Thereās little debate right now as to whoās more productive. The answer is Harris, a 2019 third-round pick out of Alabama who basically redshirted as a rookie behind Michel (the 31st overall pick in 2018) and Rex Burkhead.
But thereās a widespread and moronic belief that Michel is a complete and utter stiff.
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DeVante Parker
Even with the hamstring injury heās dealing with, Parker is a concern as the Dolphins' leading receiver. In the final game of the 2019 season, Parker had a big day against Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore. Gilmoreās been playing very well lately so give him the advantage over a gimpy Parker.
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āThat's pretty much what a team is. You know, we've all got our individual goals, but you still kind of want to go there for your brother and give that extra effort for your brother. Definitely those guys, we don't want to tarnish their legacy that they left here. They worked so many hard years, we want to keep pushing and doing as much as we can to help build up that legacy for them.ā
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āWhen you think of the Patriots, you think of dominant. Theyāve been very dominant over the past two decades, I would say, especially when (Tom) Brady was there. I think they have a really talented quarterback in Cam Newton and also with Jarrett Stidham. Their defense has always been their biggest deal. (Bill) Belichick takes pride and all of the DCs that have come there, even āCoach Floā, they all take pride in their defense and what they do to stop offenses. Thatās the biggest thing I would say, pretty much dominant.ā
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Patriots 16, Dolphins 15
