{"numbering":"no_numbering","slides":[{"title":"Patriots vs. Dolphins, Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET","image":"https://www.nbcsports.com/sites/rsnunited/files/slide/image/Newton_Cam_GettyImages_1272287039.jpg","credit":"Getty Images","published":1607190134,"caption":"

It ain’t over yet! For the Patriots to make the postseason, just two of the following four things have to happen.

Browns lose their final three
Colts OR Titans lose their final three
Dolphins lose at least two of their final three
Ravens lose at least two of their final three

Uphill climb? Yeah. But the list of necessary help was five items long on Thursday. It shrunk when the Raiders lost. So the Patriots are on a scenario roll.

Of course, New England has to win each of its final three. And that process starts Sunday at Miami where they play the 8-5 Dolphins, recipients of a 21-11 scolding from New England in the season opener. A lot’s changed for both teams since then. Miami, since an 0-2 start has lost to Kansas City, Seattle and at Denver. No shame in those. The Patriots lost to all three as well. And they’ve easily handled teams the Patriots lost to – San Fran, the Rams.

The Dolphins, however you slice it, are a better team than New England. But will they be better Sunday?

"},{"title":"When the Patriots Have the Ball","image":"https://www.nbcsports.com/sites/rsnunited/files/article/hero/Newton_Cam_USATSI_14927332_0.jpg","credit":"USA TODAY Sports photo","published":1607544721,"caption":"

Miami has been good at stopping the things the Patriots either like to do or frequently find themselves trying to do.

The Patriots want to run it? Only once in their past five games have the Dolphins allowed a YPC over 3.8 or a team to gain 100 yards on the ground. The Patriots are a team that finds itself frequently in third down? The Dolphins are one of the league’s best on third down (33.12 conversion percentage). The Patriots have turned the red zone into 700-level trigonometry? The Dolphins are 10th in the league in red zone stinginess. The Patriots throw picks (31st in the NFL in picks per pass play)? Miami comes up with them (third in picks per pass).

The Dolphins are very aggressive under Brian Flores and have gotten good front seven production from Emmanuel Ogbah, Shaq Lawson and Kyle Van Noy. They also have a strong secondary with Eric Rowe at strong safety, Bobby McCain at free safety and top-tier corners Xavien Howard and Byron Jones.

EDGE: Dolphins

Perry's Mailbag: Could Mariota be an option for Patriots in 2021?

"},{"title":"When the Dolphins Have the Ball","image":"https://www.nbcsports.com/sites/rsnunited/files/article/hero/Tagovailoa_T_Flores_B_USATSI_15144140.jpg","credit":"Getty Images","published":1607544610,"caption":"

Two things argue in New England’s favor here. First, the two most productive Dolphins targets in the passing game – DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki – are banged up and will be limited at least in this one. Second, Tua doesn’t know what he doesn’t know. He may have great mobility and above-average throwing accuracy but ask yourself this: If the Patriots can handle Kyler Murray with relative ease with DeAndre Hopkins on the field, don’t you think they can hem in, harass, confuse and block the vision of the still brand-new Tagovailoa? You are correct. And they will.

Flores will want offensive coordinator Chan Gailey to keep his quarterback out of harm’s way, which means run it. But the Dolphins don’t run it with much verve. They are averaging 3.6 YPC this season. So with the injuries, the youth of the quarterback and the lack of an imposing running game, I do not see Miami going up and down the field.

EDGE: Patriots

How rookie QBs have fared vs. Belichick's Patriots

"},{"title":"The Kicking Game","image":"https://www.nbcsports.com/sites/rsnunited/files/slide/image/Bailey_Jake_USATSI_13513980.jpg","credit":"USA TODAY Sports photo","published":1607544505,"caption":"

Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders is having a very good year. He’s 30-for-32 on field goals and has made all 30 of his PATs. His two misses came outside 40 yards. The Dolphins are best in the league at covering kickoffs (16.1 average return) and are fifth in average punt return (11.2) with Jakeem Grant leading the way. He’s got a hamstring issue so that may slow him. Their punter Matt Haack is average.

Meanwhile, the Patriots' best player this year has been Jake Bailey. Gunner Olszewski has gone from punt return parody to almost perfect the past three games. And Nick Folk is steady as a metronome. Both teams are good on “teams” but the edge is New England’s.

EDGE: Patriots

Cassel: There's no doubt about how the Pats will handle the next three weeks

"},{"title":"Patriots Medical Report","image":"https://www.nbcsports.com/sites/rsnunited/files/slide/image/White_James_USATODAY_13849351.jpg","credit":"USA TODAY Sports photo","published":1607544360,"caption":"

QUESTIONABLE: DL Adam Butler (shoulder), DL Byron Cowart (back), OT Jermaine Eluemunor (ankle), K Nick Folk (back), DL Lawrence Guy (shoulder), RB Damien Harris (ankle), OL Justin Herron (ankle), CB J.C. Jackson (knee), CB Jonathan Jones (neck), G Shaq Mason (calf), WR Donte Moncrief (thigh), WR Matthew Slater (knee), RB J.J. Taylor (quadricep), RB James White (foot)

"},{"title":"Dolphins Medical Report","image":"https://www.nbcsports.com/sites/rsnunited/files/slide/image/Gesicki_M_USATSI_15310500.jpg","credit":"USA TODAY Sports photo","published":1607544000,"caption":"

QUESTIONABLE: RB Salvon Ahmed (shoulder), LB Jerome Baker (knee), G Ereck Flowers (ankle), TE Mike Gesicki (shoulder), WR Jakeem Grant (WR), S Bobby McCain (ankle), WR DeVante Parker (hamstring), LB Elandon Roberts (chest), LB Kyle Van Noy (hip)

"},{"title":"Game Within the Game","image":"https://www.nbcsports.com/sites/rsnunited/files/slide/image/Belichick_B_USATSI_15299018.jpg","credit":"USA TODAY Sports photo","published":1607544000,"caption":"

Red zone

The Patriots were uncharacteristically awful against the Rams in the red zone, going 0-for-4 inside the 20 in scoring touchdowns. They are 27th in the league down there, converting at 52 percent. Miami is 10th in red zone defense (57.9 percent). The Patriots need to be better down there and the Dolphins – with Tua running things – will have to be careful about getting fooled when the field’s compressed. I expect field goals. (Also, I’ll throw in dealing with the heat here. Gets warm in Miami.)

Can Patriots reverse recent trend in Miami?

"},{"title":"Dolphins Gotta Stop","image":"https://www.nbcsports.com/sites/rsnunited/files/article/hero/Michel_Sony_USATSI_14992415_0.jpg","credit":"USA TODAY Sports photo","published":1607543934,"caption":"

Sony Michel

It would be a stretch to say Sony Michel’s auditioning for his future with the Patriots on Sunday. But after 10 games of solid production from Damien Harris, Michel’s performance is going to be under heavy scrutiny with Harris’ ankle injury reportedly keeping him out against the Dolphins.

Since taking over for the injured Michel in Week 4, the hard-running Harris’ production has been steadily impressive (691 yards on 137 carries, 5.0 YPC). Harris had 100 yards on 17 carries in his first start against the Chiefs. He’s gone over 100 two more times since and has only been under 4 yards per carry just three times in his 10 games.

Michel’s played in five games. He had a nine-carry, 117-yard outburst against the Raiders in Week 3 (that’s when he injured his quad and went to IR). In the other four games, Michel’s been under 4 yards per carry in all of them.

There’s little debate right now as to who’s more productive. The answer is Harris, a 2019 third-round pick out of Alabama who basically redshirted as a rookie behind Michel (the 31^st overall pick in 2018) and Rex Burkhead.

But there’s a widespread and moronic belief that Michel is a complete and utter stiff.

Harris among 14 Patriots questionable for Miami game

"},{"title":"Patriots Gotta Stop","image":"https://www.nbcsports.com/sites/rsnunited/files/slide/image/Parker_D_Gilmore_S_USATSI_13849152.jpg","credit":"USA TODAY Sports photo","published":1607543880,"caption":"

DeVante Parker

Even with the hamstring injury he’s dealing with, Parker is a concern as the Dolphins' leading receiver. In the final game of the 2019 season, Parker had a big day against Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore’s been playing very well lately so give him the advantage over a gimpy Parker.

Pats sliding, Fins steady in NFL Power Rankings entering Week 15

"},{"title":"That Sums It Up Patriots Style","image":"https://www.nbcsports.com/sites/rsnunited/files/slide/image/McCourty_J_Slater_M_McCourty_D_GettyImages_1277305600.jpg","credit":"USA TODAY Sports photo","published":1607543700,"caption":"

“That's pretty much what a team is. You know, we've all got our individual goals, but you still kind of want to go there for your brother and give that extra effort for your brother. Definitely those guys, we don't want to tarnish their legacy that they left here. They worked so many hard years, we want to keep pushing and doing as much as we can to help build up that legacy for them.”

– Jakobi Meyers, Patriots wide receiver, on commitment to playing for veteran teammates like the McCourtys and Matthew Slater

Why Rodney Harrison thinks Pats should trade for Matthew Stafford

"},{"title":"That Sums It Up Dolphins Style","image":"https://www.nbcsports.com/sites/rsnunited/files/article/hero/Tagovailoa_Tua_USATSI_15089634.jpg","credit":"USA TODAY Sports photo","published":1607543640,"caption":"

“When you think of the Patriots, you think of dominant. They’ve been very dominant over the past two decades, I would say, especially when (Tom) Brady was there. I think they have a really talented quarterback in Cam Newton and also with Jarrett Stidham. Their defense has always been their biggest deal. (Bill) Belichick takes pride and all of the DCs that have come there, even ‘Coach Flo’, they all take pride in their defense and what they do to stop offenses. That’s the biggest thing I would say, pretty much dominant.”

– Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins quarterback, on what he thinks when he hears “Patriots”

Curran: With Tua, Dolphins are where the Patriots want to be

"},{"title":"The Winner Is...","image":"https://www.nbcsports.com/sites/rsnunited/files/slide/image/Patriots_offensive_line_USATSI_14927208.jpg","credit":"USA TODAY Sports photo","published":1607545260,"caption":"

Patriots 16, Dolphins 15

"}]}

Patriots vs. Dolphins Preview: Keys to a New England victory in Week 15